The situation is not looking good, and the market seems to be capitulating.
"312" market preview?
Bitcoin hits a new low, Ethereum plummets, U.S. stocks crashed last night, Tesla's stock price halved!
Reasons for the crash: recession ➜ U.S. stocks ➜ cryptocurrency market.
$BTC: 1 hour divergence correction, price rebounds after a drop, currently at the upper boundary of the 1-hour range, showing strength at a smaller scale.
Although still declining in the 4-hour chart, the K-line has a stop-loss signal, currently facing resistance at the 4-hour MA7 of 80,500.
The daily chart has not shown a stop-loss signal, yesterday's K-line was insufficient.
Overall, the hourly stop-loss has a rebound but the trend is weak, focusing on the 4-hour resistance levels of 83,000 and Fibonacci 83,500.
The intraday trend is weak, and if it cannot break through, a decline is highly likely.
If U.S. stocks rebound tonight and boost BTC, you can refer to the resistance level of 84,600. According to the current situation, reaching this level may be the limit unless there is significant positive news in the market.
$ETH still performs poorly, and yesterday Kiko made nearly 10 million by shorting it. ETH continued to drop after breaking below 2000, reaching a low of 1754.
The weekly chart shows a double top and has broken below the 2000 support, with funds continuously flowing out.
If the market fully turns bearish, 800 is not impossible.
If it can recover 2100, it will give investors some confidence, otherwise, we can only wait for 800.
The weekly levels of 1530, 1090, and 920 are all great opportunities.
Stop dreaming of a bull market?
At most, it can be considered a 'local bear market', or the process of searching for a new consensus for the bottom after the trend ends.
Currently at:
[① Rate cut continuation + ② End of balance sheet reduction + ③ Unclear government policy expectations (Federal Reserve vs. Trump standoff period)]
It's clear that we are not yet in the macro environment configuration of the 2022-2023 bear market, but we are at a decision-making time—heading towards 're-inflation' or towards 'recession and recovery'.
When can the market stabilize?
Everyone is now focused on the Federal Reserve, waiting to see when they will take action.
Interest rate cuts in March are basically out of the question
Probability of a rate cut in May is 52.1%
The probability of a rate cut in June is 86.2%
The market believes that the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates in June, and the start of rate cuts is the beginning of the next bullish reversal trend!
Tomorrow there will be CPI data, hopefully it can stabilize emotions, and then what can stabilize emotions will be around March 20.
Sweet girl recommends wealth coins that have performed well recently:
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Professionals create value, details determine success or failure.