meme无冕之王

—— Whale movements + policy catalysts, can it create another surge myth?

1. Current market overview.
As of March 10, 2025, Kaito ($KAITO ) is quoted at $1.5, with a 24-hour increase of 8.7% and a trading volume exceeding $580 million, ranking among the top three on Binance's hot search list. Since its launch on February 20, its price has experienced significant fluctuations, peaking at $9.5 and dropping to a low of $1.2, with its current market value having rebounded to the mid-level project tier.

2. Core driving factor analysis.
1. On-chain whale strategy: wash trading signals and short squeeze potential.
On-chain data from March 5 shows that Kaito's team-related address sold 2 million tokens (approximately $4.38 million) to Binance, but at the same time, an anonymous wallet bought back $3.88 million, forming a 'cross-trade' operation. Historical experience shows that such actions often signal a violent increase after main force control. Currently, whale holdings have risen to 37%, with a high concentration of chips. If Binance's perpetual contract liquidity explodes, it may trigger a short squeeze.

On March 4, the cryptocurrency market experienced a 'bloodbath' drop, with Bitcoin's maximum intraday decline exceeding 11%, briefly falling below $83,000. Major coins like Ethereum and Cardano saw declines of over 20%, with total liquidations across the network exceeding $1 billion^2^7^8. What core logic lies behind this sudden crash? This article will combine policy, macroeconomic, and technical data to unveil the truth behind the plunge for investors.

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I. Three core drivers of the plunge

1. Panic from the trade war: Trump's tariff policy severely undermines market confidence
On March 3, local time, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, planning to implement a 'reciprocal tariff' policy on April 2^2^5^7. This move directly triggered concerns over escalating global trade friction, causing market risk aversion to soar. Investors rushed to sell high-risk assets like U.S. tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, turning to traditional safe-haven instruments such as the U.S. dollar and gold. Data from Saxo Bank showed that the 'Fear and Greed Index' for cryptocurrencies dropped to 'extreme fear' levels that day, plunging market sentiment to freezing point^2^8.

---In-depth Analysis of Binance Square on March 2, 2025
One, Price Trend: High-level Fluctuation, Market Discrepancies Intensifying
Today, SHELL continues the heat after being listed on Binance, with prices fluctuating in the $0.45-$0.55 range, and a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $120 million, with a turnover rate of up to 35%. Compared to the low point of $0.22 two weeks ago, the cumulative increase remains above 195%, but short-term volatility has significantly amplified, indicating fierce long-short battles. Technically, the 4-hour K-line shows an "ascending wedge" pattern. If it breaks through the $0.75 resistance level, a new round of increases is expected; if it falls below the $0.55 support, it may retest the $0.45 key level.

Recently, the star project MyShell's token SHELL experienced a rollercoaster market after being listed on Binance: on the first day of listing on February 27, it surged over 40%, with a cumulative increase of 218% over two weeks, but then the price quickly fell back, dropping more than 30% (as of March 1 data). The logic behind this phenomenon is worth exploring, and this article will analyze it from three dimensions: market behavior, project fundamentals, and ecological games.
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1. Market Behavior: Realization of Benefits and Overdraft of Expectations
1. A Classic Interpretation of 'Buy Expectations, Sell Facts'
The listing on Binance itself is a significant positive factor, but the market often reacts to expectations in advance. SHELL had already risen by 218% due to 'airdrop expectations' before the listing announcement, resulting in the benefits being fully priced in at the time of listing. Data shows that the average holding cost of IDO participants, who raised over 51 times, is only $0.003, and some early profit-takers chose to cash out during the peak liquidity on Binance, creating short-term selling pressure.

On February 28, 2025, the price of Pi coin (PI) saw a significant correction, dropping from a recent high of $3.00 to around $2.15, with a daily volatility exceeding 30%. This dramatic fluctuation sparked heated discussions in the Binance Square community. This article combines the latest market dynamics and historical data to conduct an in-depth analysis from the perspectives of supply-demand structure, regulatory environment, technical risks, etc.

1. Short-term Selling Pressure Concentrated Release: The 'unblocking' wave of early miners
Since Pi coin's mainnet launch on February 20, it has experienced a 'roller coaster' market: on the first day, it plummeted from $3.00 to $0.63, then rebounded to $3.00 on February 27. However, this rebound did not last long, and on the 28th, the price quickly fell back. The core reason is:

1. Binance listing vote approved, but formal launch remains uncertain.
Today, Binance announced that it has completed the community voting for the listing of Pi coin (PI), with 86% of participants supporting the listing, setting a record for the highest approval rate in Binance's community voting history. Although this result is seen as an important milestone for Pi coin's integration into the mainstream cryptocurrency market, Binance emphasized that the final decision still requires further evaluation, and users in mainland China are unable to participate in the vote due to compliance restrictions. The market speculates that if Pi coin successfully lands on Binance, it may trigger a new round of price surges, especially considering its 60 million registered users and the potential catalytic effect of 'Pi Day' on March 14.

1. Three major “black swan” triggers for the cryptocurrency market crash
The cryptocurrency market has recently been hit by a bloodbath. Bitcoin plummeted by more than 10% in a single day to $85,000. Mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and Solana fell by more than 15%, and 310,000 people were liquidated and returned to zero. The root cause is that three factors combined to cause market panic:
1. Policy expectations were dashed: The Bitcoin Reserve Act in South Dakota, U.S., was rejected, weakening the market’s confidence in policy support for crypto assets; Trump’s tariff policy exacerbated global trade frictions, and investors’ risk aversion increased.
2. Security and trust crisis: Bybit, the world's second largest exchange, was hacked and 1.5 billion US dollars of Ethereum was stolen, becoming the largest theft in history, which directly impacted users' trust in the security of exchanges.

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Introduction
On February 26, 2025, Binance Launchpool's 64th project RedStone (RED) officially launched, marking the entry of a heavyweight player in the cross-chain oracle field. As the first oracle project to land on Binance Launchpool, RedStone has quickly attracted market attention due to its modular architecture, capital endorsement, and ecosystem expansion potential. This article will comprehensively analyze its potential as the 'new king of oracles' from the dimensions of technical characteristics, token model, participation strategy, and risk warnings.

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One, RedStone's Core Competitiveness
1. Technological innovation: Modular design breaks through oracle bottlenecks

I. Five Core Causes of the Crypto Market Plunge
On February 24-25, 2025, the crypto market encountered 'Black Monday', with Bitcoin plunging over 8% in a single day, Ethereum falling 25%, and over 360,000 liquidations across the network, with nearly $10 billion in funds evaporating. This crash was triggered by multiple negative factors:
1. Regulatory policy 'black swan': The Bitcoin investment bill in South Dakota has been postponed, undermining expectations for institutional funds to enter; the EU has included cryptocurrency exchanges in its sanctions list for the first time, increasing compliance risks.
2. Macroeconomic factors and a strong dollar: The Federal Reserve has signaled a 'hawkish' stance, with the dollar index rising and suppressing risk assets, weakening Bitcoin's hedging properties as 'digital gold'.

1. Precisely Seizing Market Crash Opportunities: When Bitcoin plummeted 6% to 86,000 US dollars in one day, he fully shorted with a capital of 15,000 US dollars, using a position-by-position operation technique to amplify profits. This extreme strategy of 'either success or liquidation' captures shorting opportunities during severe market fluctuations.
2. Traffic and Reverse Marketing Strategies: Previously, he accumulated traffic by crying during live broadcasts and creating a 'crazy persona'. After a sharp drop, he quickly shared a screenshot of a 5 million US dollar profit to pay off debts, shaping a 'truly profitable' image to attract more attention and speculative funds.
3. Historical Experience and Anti-Human Operations: As a former 'Contract War God', he is skilled in using high leverage (such as 100 times) and short-term trading to make quick profits in extreme market conditions. During this drop, he once again showcased his keen judgment of market sentiment.

One, Platform Introduction: A New Paradigm of Celebrity Time Tokenization
Time.fun is the first innovative platform on the Solana chain focused on 'time tokenization', supported by Toly and co-created with the Solana founder team. Users can purchase time tokens issued by creators to directly exchange for opportunities to interact with idols (such as private messages, video calls), or even participate in token trading to earn price differences. The platform adopts a 'separation of internal and external trading' mechanism: internal trading requires recharging USDC to mint tokens, while external trading flows freely through GMGN pairs, balancing compliance and liquidity.

1. FTX bankruptcy and liquidation triggers token unlocking pressure
The 11.2 million SOL (worth about $2.06 billion) held by FTX will be unlocked on March 1, accounting for 2.29% of the circulation. These tokens were previously purchased by institutions such as Galaxy and Pantera at very low costs. The current floating profit is huge, and the market is worried that the sell-off will exacerbate the oversupply. Although SBF has been released from prison, the FTX liquidation process is still proceeding as planned, which has become the main negative factor in the near future.

2. Meteora ecosystem manipulation and trust crisis
Meteora (possibly related to the SBF or FTX team) was accused of participating in meme coin scams such as $LIBRA, manipulating the market through unilateral liquidity pools to harvest retail investors, leading to the collapse of trust in the Solana ecosystem. The transaction volume and number of active addresses on the chain plummeted by 50%-85%, and funds outflow accelerated.

On February 24, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a sudden plunge, with the price falling below $92,000 at one point, a drop of more than 4% in 24 hours, and Ethereum falling by nearly 10%, with more than 290,000 people liquidated. This plunge was caused by the resonance of multiple factors, as follows:
1. The failure of favorable policies triggered panic selling
South Dakota originally planned to pass HB 1202, which would allow state public funds to invest up to 10% in Bitcoin, but the bill was postponed to the "41st day" (the actual session was only 40 days) due to insufficient legislative session, which essentially aborted the bill. The failure of this policy expectation directly hit market confidence, and investors were worried that stricter crypto regulations in other regions would lead to a short-term liquidity dry-up of Bitcoin.

Event review: The bloodshed caused by the loss of engineer permissions
On February 24, 2025, the crypto lending platform Infini experienced an abnormal transfer incident, where assets worth approximately $49.5 million (including 17,696 ETH) were illegally transferred from the Ethereum contract address 0x9A79f4105A4e1A050Ba0b42F25351D394fA7E1DC to the address 0x3ac96134fb0e42a52d33045aee50b89790f05ed0 and began to be exchanged for the stablecoin DAI. According to Infini co-founders @0xsexybanana and @Christine, this incident was caused by the malicious use of internal engineer permissions, and the involved personnel have been controlled by the police. The platform has promised to fully compensate user assets.

On February 20, 2025, after the official launch of the Pi Network (PI) mainnet, its token experienced sharp price fluctuations on exchanges such as OKEx, with an increase of over 100% within 24 hours, and its market value temporarily surpassed mainstream tokens like USDT and BNB. As the world's first crypto project with 'mobile mining' as a gimmick, the PI token's comeback is full of controversy, but it reflects the deep game between exchange ecology and community consensus. This article combines on-chain data and market dynamics to analyze the core advantages of this surge and forecast subsequent trends.
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1. Liquidity breakthrough: exchanges empower value circulation

On February 20, 2025, after the official launch of the Pi Network (PI) mainnet, its token experienced dramatic price fluctuations on exchanges like EuYi, with an increase of over 100% within 24 hours. Combined with market dynamics and on-chain data, this surge was mainly driven by the following factors:
1. Short-term market sentiment catalysis
1. Mainnet launch releases liquidity
After the mainnet launch, users need to complete KYC verification and migrate tokens, leading to a short-term surge in market supply. However, as the selling pressure from early miners eased, liquidity gradually stabilized, and the price rebounded from a low of $0.60 to $1.49.