1. FTX bankruptcy and liquidation triggers token unlocking pressure
The 11.2 million SOL (worth about $2.06 billion) held by FTX will be unlocked on March 1, accounting for 2.29% of the circulation. These tokens were previously purchased by institutions such as Galaxy and Pantera at very low costs. The current floating profit is huge, and the market is worried that the sell-off will exacerbate the oversupply. Although SBF has been released from prison, the FTX liquidation process is still proceeding as planned, which has become the main negative factor in the near future.
2. Meteora ecosystem manipulation and trust crisis
Meteora (possibly related to the SBF or FTX team) was accused of participating in meme coin scams such as $LIBRA, manipulating the market through unilateral liquidity pools to harvest retail investors, leading to the collapse of trust in the Solana ecosystem. The transaction volume and number of active addresses on the chain plummeted by 50%-85%, and funds outflow accelerated.
3. Market manipulation and liquidity withdrawal
Jupiter, Meteora and other institutions were accused of withdrawing nearly $3 billion in funds within one month, exacerbating market panic. At the same time, the expansion of the Binance Chain ecosystem diverted funds, further weakening SOL liquidity.
4. Technical and market sentiment deteriorates
After SOL fell below the key support level, a downward trend was formed, the financing rate turned negative, and the open interest decreased, indicating a lack of short-term confidence. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the overall sluggish crypto market intensified the selling pressure.
Summary: SBF's release from prison was not a direct cause, but the FTX liquidation incident and Meteora's manipulation (which may be related to its background) jointly amplified the market panic. Currently, SOL faces the triple challenges of unlocking pressure, ecological trust crisis and liquidity depletion. We need to pay attention to the market's ability to take on the market after the unlocking in March and the progress of ecological restoration.
