On February 28, 2025, the price of Pi coin (PI) saw a significant correction, dropping from a recent high of $3.00 to around $2.15, with a daily volatility exceeding 30%. This dramatic fluctuation sparked heated discussions in the Binance Square community. This article combines the latest market dynamics and historical data to conduct an in-depth analysis from the perspectives of supply-demand structure, regulatory environment, technical risks, etc.
1. Short-term Selling Pressure Concentrated Release: The 'unblocking' wave of early miners
Since Pi coin's mainnet launch on February 20, it has experienced a 'roller coaster' market: on the first day, it plummeted from $3.00 to $0.63, then rebounded to $3.00 on February 27. However, this rebound did not last long, and on the 28th, the price quickly fell back. The core reason is:
1. Historical Accumulated Selling Pressure Concentrated Release: Since the project's launch in 2019, users have accumulated a massive amount of tokens through 'mobile mining' (official data shows 5.56 billion tokens unlocked). After the mainnet launch, early miners chose to sell off in bulk on exchanges to secure profits, leading to a short-term supply-demand imbalance.
2. Liquidity Siphoning Effect of Exchanges: Platforms like Gate.io attract a large influx of users due to the label of 'the only compliant trading in the national region', but the liquidity depth is insufficient, making prices vulnerable to large order impacts.
2. Stricter Regulations and Market Sentiment Shift to Caution
1. Global Regulatory Pressure: China, the US, and Europe have recently intensified crackdowns on cryptocurrency pyramid schemes. Police in multiple regions of China have classified the Pi coin project as a 'pyramid scheme'; the US SEC has clearly stated that token issuance must be registered as securities, and the EU's MiCA regulations strengthen the supervision of 'referral' models. Policy uncertainty exacerbates investor panic.
2. Community Confidence Undermined: After the mainnet launch, the promised payment scenarios and dApp ecosystem have not materialized, with only 20,000 daily active wallets, creating a huge contrast with the '60 million users' promotion. Some early influencers have shifted from 'one coin, one villa' to 'long-term holding' rhetoric, further depleting community trust.
3. Technical Risks and Market Cycle Resonance
1. Code Update Stagnation: Blockchain auditing firm CertiK pointed out that the Pi coin codebase has not seen substantial updates since 2021, exposing the project's 'pseudo-decentralized' nature.
2. Bear Market Environment Suppressing: The current cryptocurrency market is overall in a downward cycle, with mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum continuously declining, making Pi coin, which lacks practical applications, more susceptible to liquidity contraction impacts.
4. Future Trend Analysis and Risk Warning
1. Short-term Fluctuations May Continue: If no significant positive news (such as Binance's listing) emerges, prices may fluctuate around the $2.00-$2.50 range, with risks of falling below the critical support level of $2.00.
2. Long-term Value in Doubt: The project team needs to achieve ecological breakthroughs within 3-6 months (such as millions of daily active users and high-frequency payment scenarios), or the token will continue to be under pressure due to the 'zero risk' of value.
Binance Square Community Suggestions:
- Short-term Investors: Current volatility exceeds 150%, and it is advisable to set a stop-loss line of 10-15% to avoid emotional trading.
- Long-term Holders: Pay attention to the mainnet upgrade progress on March 15 and the Binance listing voting results, but reserve 70% of the position to cope with extreme risks.
- New Users: Be wary of 'buying the dip' rhetoric; Pi coin currently has a circulation of over 5.5 billion, far exceeding the scarcity logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Conclusion
The extreme volatility of Pi coin is a concentrated outbreak of 'pyramid scheme model + capital manipulation + market frenzy'. For cryptocurrency investors, only by penetrating the marketing fog and adhering to compliance bottom lines can they navigate steadily in the blockchain world where risks and opportunities coexist.
