1. Three major “black swan” triggers for the cryptocurrency market crash
The cryptocurrency market has recently been hit by a bloodbath. Bitcoin plummeted by more than 10% in a single day to $85,000. Mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and Solana fell by more than 15%, and 310,000 people were liquidated and returned to zero. The root cause is that three factors combined to cause market panic:
1. Policy expectations were dashed: The Bitcoin Reserve Act in South Dakota, U.S., was rejected, weakening the market’s confidence in policy support for crypto assets; Trump’s tariff policy exacerbated global trade frictions, and investors’ risk aversion increased.
2. Security and trust crisis: Bybit, the world's second largest exchange, was hacked and 1.5 billion US dollars of Ethereum was stolen, becoming the largest theft in history, which directly impacted users' trust in the security of exchanges.
3. High regulatory pressure and liquidity tightening: The EU has imposed sanctions on cryptocurrency exchanges, the US SEC has strengthened compliance reviews, exchanges are facing sky-high fines, and market liquidity is drying up rapidly.
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2. The four core logics of Pi coin's surge against the trend
In the midst of the gloom, Pi coin (PI) has taken an independent trend, with its price soaring 3 times to $2.8 in a week, becoming the focus of the market. The reasons for its counterattack are as follows:
1. IPO expectations trigger market sentiment
Community voting shows that 86% of users support Pi coin listing on Binance Exchange, and liquidity expectations drive the price to soar. If successfully listed on Binance, PI coin will gain dozens of times of trading volume, attracting institutions and retail investors to rush into the market.
2. Selling pressure eases and supply and demand reverses
In the early days of the mainnet launch, the early miners' selling caused the PI coin to fall to US$0.6, but the selling pressure has weakened significantly recently, and the supply and demand relationship has tended to be balanced. Long-term holders firmly lock in their positions, further supporting prices.
3. Community confidence and technical resonance
The Pi Network team clarified the Bybit accusation and dispelled market concerns. The technical side formed a "cup-handle pattern". After breaking through the $1.6 neckline, the target price is expected to be $2.3-2.4, attracting technical traders to buy at the bottom.
4. Faith value and ecological potential
The community consensus value (GCV) is as high as $314,000/PI, which creates a huge arbitrage space with the current price, attracting "buy on dips" funds. In addition, the Pi coin deflation model (total 10 billion, mining rewards decreasing) strengthens the expectation of scarcity.
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3. Market outlook strategy: Be cautious in the short term and pay attention to the Pi coin ecosystem in the long term
1. Short-term risk warning
The crypto market panic index dropped to 28, and Bitcoin may further drop to the support level of $80,000. We still need to be vigilant about leverage risks and regulatory pressure. It is recommended to avoid high leverage operations and set a stop loss line.
2. Pi coin layout suggestions
- Aggressive: If the price falls back to the range of 1.5-1.6 USD, you can arrange a light position with the target of 2.0-2.2 USD.
- Conservative: Wait for the Binance listing news to be announced, and then make a decision based on liquidity changes.
3. Long-term value judgment
If Pi coin can be listed on Binance and expand into payment, DeFi and other scenarios, it is expected to replicate the growth path of Bitcoin after halving. However, we need to be wary of project progress that is not as expected or regulatory risks.
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Conclusion
The sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market is the result of the concentrated release of policy, security and leverage risks, while Pi coin has bucked the trend with its listing expectations and community consensus. Investors need to look at short-term fluctuations rationally, use the "bottom warehouse + fixed investment" strategy to deal with uncertainties, and pay attention to the progress of the Pi coin ecosystem.
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market is volatile. The analysis in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
