弈贤日记Ari
微博:弈贤日记Ari 用独立思考拆解行情本质，八年交易打磨趋势操作体系，死磕知行合一，抓币圈趋势脉搏 。
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Execution is Key
From 50,000 to 260,000, it's not just about studying market trends, but also about the process of strictly realizing profits and losses with each entry and exit. Sticking to the strategy in real trading is a way of letting the account's strength 'speak'.
From 50,000 to 260,000, it's not just about studying market trends, but also about the process of strictly realizing profits and losses with each entry and exit. Sticking to the strategy in real trading is a way of letting the account's strength 'speak'.
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XRP
If there is a short-term pullback to the 2.95-2.92 area, consider going long, with a stop at 2.78.
The initial target above is 3.08-3.16; if it breaks through and holds, there is hope for a rally to 3.25.
If it falls below 2.92, the short-term rebound structure will be disrupted, so caution is required.
Summary: The short-term bias is mainly bullish, focusing on the support at 2.92 not breaking, looking up to 3.08-3.16.
If there is a short-term pullback to the 2.95-2.92 area, consider going long, with a stop at 2.78.
The initial target above is 3.08-3.16; if it breaks through and holds, there is hope for a rally to 3.25.
If it falls below 2.92, the short-term rebound structure will be disrupted, so caution is required.
Summary: The short-term bias is mainly bullish, focusing on the support at 2.92 not breaking, looking up to 3.08-3.16.
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Everyone should know what to do in a volatile market, right?
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BTC 四小时解析
当前 BTC 处于下行趋势反弹阶段，短线在 114600 附近承压。
操作思路：
113800–114200 附近尝试低多，目标115500–116500，止损112500下方；若突破117000，可看119500–120000。
当前 BTC 处于下行趋势反弹阶段，短线在 114600 附近承压。
操作思路：
113800–114200 附近尝试低多，目标115500–116500，止损112500下方；若突破117000，可看119500–120000。
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The current price being shouted surely can't have anyone questioning it
Today shout two orders and earn on both, whether it's accurate is up to you to decide
Today shout two orders and earn on both, whether it's accurate is up to you to decide
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ETH 四小时解析
技术面解析
1. K线结构
ETH/USDT在4060一线获得支撑后反弹，目前运行在布林带中轨附近（4280–4310区域）。
前期高点4788仍是中期强压力，短期则需先突破4400–4450一线才能打开上行空间。
2. 指标观察
布林带：中轨4281已被有效站稳，短期倾向上攻上轨4515。
MACD：快慢线即将金叉，红柱开始放量，显示多头动能增强。
成交量：反弹量能温和放大，说明抄底资金逐步进场。
3. 关键支撑/压力位
支撑：4260–4280（中轨支撑）、4060（前低关键位）
压力：4400、4450（短期压力）、4515（布林上轨）、4780（前高）
消息面影响
近期市场对降息预期升温，美债收益率下行，资金对风险资产偏好提升，利好ETH等加密资产反弹。
以太坊生态近期资金净流入虽有波动，但总体保持韧性，叠加DeFi和L2板块活跃，支撑价格回暖。
操作建议与点位
短线思路：
回调 4260–4280区间接多，止损放在 4220 下方；上看 4400–4450，强势可看 4515。
中线思路：
若站稳 4515，有望冲击 4700–4780 前高；若跌破 4060，则需谨慎，可能回测 3900–3950。
总结：短线多头占优，倾向回调做多，关注 4260–4280支撑 → 4400–4450压力 → 4515突破机会。
技术面解析
1. K线结构
ETH/USDT在4060一线获得支撑后反弹，目前运行在布林带中轨附近（4280–4310区域）。
前期高点4788仍是中期强压力，短期则需先突破4400–4450一线才能打开上行空间。
2. 指标观察
布林带：中轨4281已被有效站稳，短期倾向上攻上轨4515。
MACD：快慢线即将金叉，红柱开始放量，显示多头动能增强。
成交量：反弹量能温和放大，说明抄底资金逐步进场。
3. 关键支撑/压力位
支撑：4260–4280（中轨支撑）、4060（前低关键位）
压力：4400、4450（短期压力）、4515（布林上轨）、4780（前高）
消息面影响
近期市场对降息预期升温，美债收益率下行，资金对风险资产偏好提升，利好ETH等加密资产反弹。
以太坊生态近期资金净流入虽有波动，但总体保持韧性，叠加DeFi和L2板块活跃，支撑价格回暖。
操作建议与点位
短线思路：
回调 4260–4280区间接多，止损放在 4220 下方；上看 4400–4450，强势可看 4515。
中线思路：
若站稳 4515，有望冲击 4700–4780 前高；若跌破 4060，则需谨慎，可能回测 3900–3950。
总结：短线多头占优，倾向回调做多，关注 4260–4280支撑 → 4400–4450压力 → 4515突破机会。
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Keep going, there are still hundreds of points of space
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Guide to Unwinding Positions: Practical Strategies
Recently, many people have been asking how to unwound their positions. As an experienced trader who has navigated countless bull and bear markets, I will provide you with an efficient, hardcore process for unwinding positions. If you follow it, you can generally keep losses to a minimum or even turn things around:
First, distinguish which type of 'being stuck' you belong to.
Stuck in a Range: For example, buying high and selling low within a consolidation range, with many opportunities due to market fluctuations. In this case, holding patiently or doing T+0 trades has a high chance of unwinding.
Stuck in a Trend: For example, buying at the top or failing to stop-loss when the market shifts from bull to bear. In this case, do not stubbornly hold on; the longer you wait, the deeper the losses.
Do you have any capital left?
If you have capital: Avoid going all in. You must gradually add to your position to lower your average cost, while doing T+0 trades to reduce losses.
If you have no capital: Don't expect a miracle to unwind your positions. It’s advisable to decisively cut losses or switch coins, focusing your efforts on more promising markets.
Understand the market position and avoid blindly adding to your position.
In the early stage of a rebound/strong support area: You can take small positions to buy low and perform rolling trades.
If there are no clear signs of reversal, do not add to your position or make any moves. Learn to wait with a cash position for opportunities.
Learn to manage rolling operations to reduce costs.
Example:
For instance, if you bought ETH at 3900 and it is now at 3600,
Sell a portion to realize some cash, then wait for a pullback to 3500 to buy back. By repeating this process several times, your cost will naturally decrease.
When the market rebounds one day, you won’t have to wait for the original price to unwind or even turn a loss into profit.
Make sure to review your trades and summarize your experiences.
Did you forget to set a stop loss? Was your position too heavy? Or were you impulsively buying high? Understand this so that you won’t get stuck next time.
Leave a comment with the coin you've been stuck in and your cost price, and I will help you break down a specific plan.
Recently, many people have been asking how to unwound their positions. As an experienced trader who has navigated countless bull and bear markets, I will provide you with an efficient, hardcore process for unwinding positions. If you follow it, you can generally keep losses to a minimum or even turn things around:
First, distinguish which type of 'being stuck' you belong to.
Stuck in a Range: For example, buying high and selling low within a consolidation range, with many opportunities due to market fluctuations. In this case, holding patiently or doing T+0 trades has a high chance of unwinding.
Stuck in a Trend: For example, buying at the top or failing to stop-loss when the market shifts from bull to bear. In this case, do not stubbornly hold on; the longer you wait, the deeper the losses.
Do you have any capital left?
If you have capital: Avoid going all in. You must gradually add to your position to lower your average cost, while doing T+0 trades to reduce losses.
If you have no capital: Don't expect a miracle to unwind your positions. It’s advisable to decisively cut losses or switch coins, focusing your efforts on more promising markets.
Understand the market position and avoid blindly adding to your position.
In the early stage of a rebound/strong support area: You can take small positions to buy low and perform rolling trades.
If there are no clear signs of reversal, do not add to your position or make any moves. Learn to wait with a cash position for opportunities.
Learn to manage rolling operations to reduce costs.
Example:
For instance, if you bought ETH at 3900 and it is now at 3600,
Sell a portion to realize some cash, then wait for a pullback to 3500 to buy back. By repeating this process several times, your cost will naturally decrease.
When the market rebounds one day, you won’t have to wait for the original price to unwind or even turn a loss into profit.
Make sure to review your trades and summarize your experiences.
Did you forget to set a stop loss? Was your position too heavy? Or were you impulsively buying high? Understand this so that you won’t get stuck next time.
Leave a comment with the coin you've been stuck in and your cost price, and I will help you break down a specific plan.
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Market Sentiment on Interest Rate Cuts
1. Overall Optimism
Recently, weak non-farm data and moderate inflation have led the market to generally believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, with a probability exceeding 80%. Some even suggest a potential one-time cut of 50 basis points. Investor risk appetite has clearly rebounded:
U.S. stocks, including the Dow Jones and S&P futures, have risen;
Bitcoin has reached an all-time high;
The VIX, or volatility index, has dropped to a year-low.
2. Boost in Investor Confidence
Strengthened expectations for rate cuts have driven funds towards risk assets, while the U.S. dollar index has weakened and gold prices have risen, indicating the market is re-evaluating the possibility of a 'loose environment'.
3. Potential Concerns
Although the market is optimistic, the bond market curve shows a phenomenon of falling short-term yields and elevated long-term yields, reflecting concerns over fiscal deficits and long-term inflation. Some viewpoints warn that the world may enter an era of 'fiscal dominance', where central banks are forced to maintain low interest rates and their independence is constrained.
4. Key Milestones Ahead
The market's next focal point is Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Historical experience shows that his statements often trigger significant fluctuations in the dollar, yields, and stock markets, potentially marking a turning point in sentiment.
1. Overall Optimism
Recently, weak non-farm data and moderate inflation have led the market to generally believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September, with a probability exceeding 80%. Some even suggest a potential one-time cut of 50 basis points. Investor risk appetite has clearly rebounded:
U.S. stocks, including the Dow Jones and S&P futures, have risen;
Bitcoin has reached an all-time high;
The VIX, or volatility index, has dropped to a year-low.
2. Boost in Investor Confidence
Strengthened expectations for rate cuts have driven funds towards risk assets, while the U.S. dollar index has weakened and gold prices have risen, indicating the market is re-evaluating the possibility of a 'loose environment'.
3. Potential Concerns
Although the market is optimistic, the bond market curve shows a phenomenon of falling short-term yields and elevated long-term yields, reflecting concerns over fiscal deficits and long-term inflation. Some viewpoints warn that the world may enter an era of 'fiscal dominance', where central banks are forced to maintain low interest rates and their independence is constrained.
4. Key Milestones Ahead
The market's next focal point is Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Historical experience shows that his statements often trigger significant fluctuations in the dollar, yields, and stock markets, potentially marking a turning point in sentiment.
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Just casually taking action leads to profit. Looking back, the number of times I've called the current price wrong is very few.
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BTC Four-Hour Analysis
Current Price Long
1. Overall Trend
The current BTC/USDT quote is around 113,500, with an intraday decline of about -1.7%.
From the four-hour perspective, the candlestick has continuously retraced and is near the lower Bollinger Band, showing signs of short-term overselling.
2. Support and Resistance
Key support level below: 112,500 (today's low and close to previous platform support).
If it breaks, it may continue to test the 111,500 - 111,000 range.
Resistance level above: 115,000 - 115,800 (Bollinger middle band & previous dense trading area).
If it stabilizes above 113,000 and rebounds, there is a chance to hit around 116,000 in the short term.
3. Indicator Reference
MACD: DIF and DEA have crossed downwards, green bars continue, but momentum has shortened, indicating that bearish strength is gradually weakening.
BIAS: The short-term deviation rate is at a low level, suggesting potential momentum for a rebound from overselling in the market.
Operational Suggestions
Long Position Strategy:
You can try to take a light long position in the 112,800 - 113,200 range, with a stop loss below 112,200, targeting initially 114,800 - 115,500.
Short Position Strategy:
If it rebounds to 115,500 - 115,800 and faces resistance, consider a high short, targeting a return to 113,500 - 112,800.
Current Price Long
1. Overall Trend
The current BTC/USDT quote is around 113,500, with an intraday decline of about -1.7%.
From the four-hour perspective, the candlestick has continuously retraced and is near the lower Bollinger Band, showing signs of short-term overselling.
2. Support and Resistance
Key support level below: 112,500 (today's low and close to previous platform support).
If it breaks, it may continue to test the 111,500 - 111,000 range.
Resistance level above: 115,000 - 115,800 (Bollinger middle band & previous dense trading area).
If it stabilizes above 113,000 and rebounds, there is a chance to hit around 116,000 in the short term.
3. Indicator Reference
MACD: DIF and DEA have crossed downwards, green bars continue, but momentum has shortened, indicating that bearish strength is gradually weakening.
BIAS: The short-term deviation rate is at a low level, suggesting potential momentum for a rebound from overselling in the market.
Operational Suggestions
Long Position Strategy:
You can try to take a light long position in the 112,800 - 113,200 range, with a stop loss below 112,200, targeting initially 114,800 - 115,500.
Short Position Strategy:
If it rebounds to 115,500 - 115,800 and faces resistance, consider a high short, targeting a return to 113,500 - 112,800.
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1. The Federal Reserve's Regulatory Attitude is Shifting Towards Openness
Allowing Federal Reserve Employees to Hold a Small Amount of Crypto Assets
Regulatory Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated that Federal Reserve employees should be allowed to hold "de minimis" (very small amounts) of crypto assets to enhance regulators' understanding of technology and their regulatory capabilities. This proposal aims to attract professionals who understand crypto and help practitioners avoid being overly cautious due to a lack of understanding of the technology.
A Call to Say Goodbye to the Old 'Cautious' Mindset
At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, she urged regulators to move away from overly conservative attitudes and to actively incorporate innovations such as blockchain and AI into bank regulation, while proposing that differentiated regulatory strategies should be adopted based on the size and complexity of banks.
2. The Federal Regulatory 'Crypto Special Project' Will be Canceled
The 'Novel Activities Supervision Program' is About to End
The Federal Reserve announced it will close the supervision program for special crypto banking activities, shifting to the regular regulatory framework to monitor related behaviors to promote innovative development.
Revoke Outdated Regulatory Notices
The Federal Reserve Board has revoked regulatory notices from 2022 and 2023 concerning banks' crypto assets and 'dollar token' activities, indicating that related regulatory expectations will align more closely with traditional financial businesses, becoming more open and institutionalized.
3. Regulatory Framework Enters a Critical Window
Basel's Crypto Asset Banking Regulatory Standards Under Scrutiny
The crypto asset regulatory rules being developed by the Basel Committee under the Bank for International Settlements, which are expected to be implemented in 2026, have been deemed "too conservative and impractical" by industry groups, prompting calls to delay implementation and reassess them.
4. Congress Making Significant Progress on Crypto Legislation
The 'GENIUS Act' Becomes Law
This bill requires stablecoins to be backed 1-to-1 by U.S. dollars or other low-risk assets, establishes transparent auditing obligations, and creates a dual regulatory mechanism at the federal and state levels. This is the first comprehensive stablecoin regulation in the United States, officially signed into law on July 18, 2025.
Against CBDC, Clarifying Regulatory Agency Responsibilities
On the same day, Congress also passed the 'Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act,' which prevents the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDC), and the 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act,' which clarifies the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, further promoting clarity in the crypto legislative framework.
Allowing Federal Reserve Employees to Hold a Small Amount of Crypto Assets
Regulatory Vice Chair Michelle Bowman stated that Federal Reserve employees should be allowed to hold "de minimis" (very small amounts) of crypto assets to enhance regulators' understanding of technology and their regulatory capabilities. This proposal aims to attract professionals who understand crypto and help practitioners avoid being overly cautious due to a lack of understanding of the technology.
A Call to Say Goodbye to the Old 'Cautious' Mindset
At the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium, she urged regulators to move away from overly conservative attitudes and to actively incorporate innovations such as blockchain and AI into bank regulation, while proposing that differentiated regulatory strategies should be adopted based on the size and complexity of banks.
2. The Federal Regulatory 'Crypto Special Project' Will be Canceled
The 'Novel Activities Supervision Program' is About to End
The Federal Reserve announced it will close the supervision program for special crypto banking activities, shifting to the regular regulatory framework to monitor related behaviors to promote innovative development.
Revoke Outdated Regulatory Notices
The Federal Reserve Board has revoked regulatory notices from 2022 and 2023 concerning banks' crypto assets and 'dollar token' activities, indicating that related regulatory expectations will align more closely with traditional financial businesses, becoming more open and institutionalized.
3. Regulatory Framework Enters a Critical Window
Basel's Crypto Asset Banking Regulatory Standards Under Scrutiny
The crypto asset regulatory rules being developed by the Basel Committee under the Bank for International Settlements, which are expected to be implemented in 2026, have been deemed "too conservative and impractical" by industry groups, prompting calls to delay implementation and reassess them.
4. Congress Making Significant Progress on Crypto Legislation
The 'GENIUS Act' Becomes Law
This bill requires stablecoins to be backed 1-to-1 by U.S. dollars or other low-risk assets, establishes transparent auditing obligations, and creates a dual regulatory mechanism at the federal and state levels. This is the first comprehensive stablecoin regulation in the United States, officially signed into law on July 18, 2025.
Against CBDC, Clarifying Regulatory Agency Responsibilities
On the same day, Congress also passed the 'Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act,' which prevents the issuance of central bank digital currencies (CBDC), and the 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act,' which clarifies the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, further promoting clarity in the crypto legislative framework.
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DOGE Daily Analysis
Market Background
DOGE current price is $0.212, with an intraday decline of -2.52%. After falling below the $0.22 level, it continues to face pressure. The candlestick has touched near the 20-day moving average (about $0.219), and currently, bulls and bears are battling at the key support level.
Bullish Perspective
DOGE has found support in the $0.21-$0.22 range. If buying pressure can hold, there will be an opportunity to push the price higher.
Primary Target: $0.23-$0.24
Strong Breakthrough: If it stabilizes and breaks above $0.25, it is likely to challenge the resistance levels of $0.27-$0.29.
Bearish Perspective
If DOGE fails to hold the support around $0.21, the probability of further declines is high:
Downside Potential: May drop to $0.20 → $0.19
In extreme cases, it may test the lower Bollinger Band support at $0.18-$0.185.
Key Observation Points
Support Levels: $0.21 → $0.20 → $0.18
Resistance Levels: $0.23 → $0.25 → $0.29
Market Background
DOGE current price is $0.212, with an intraday decline of -2.52%. After falling below the $0.22 level, it continues to face pressure. The candlestick has touched near the 20-day moving average (about $0.219), and currently, bulls and bears are battling at the key support level.
Bullish Perspective
DOGE has found support in the $0.21-$0.22 range. If buying pressure can hold, there will be an opportunity to push the price higher.
Primary Target: $0.23-$0.24
Strong Breakthrough: If it stabilizes and breaks above $0.25, it is likely to challenge the resistance levels of $0.27-$0.29.
Bearish Perspective
If DOGE fails to hold the support around $0.21, the probability of further declines is high:
Downside Potential: May drop to $0.20 → $0.19
In extreme cases, it may test the lower Bollinger Band support at $0.18-$0.185.
Key Observation Points
Support Levels: $0.21 → $0.20 → $0.18
Resistance Levels: $0.23 → $0.25 → $0.29
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BTC Four-Hour Analysis
Technical Analysis
1. Overall Trend
From the four-hour chart, BTC peaked around 124545 and has been declining ever since. It has currently broken below the middle band (115807) and is approaching the lower band support (112391).
The current price is at 113262, just a step away from the lower band support, and remains bearish in the short term.
2. MACD Indicator
The MACD green bars continue to expand, and the DIF and DEA are diverging downwards, indicating that bearish momentum is still strong, with no signs of stabilization in the short term.
3. BIAS (Bias Rate)
BIAS6, 12, and 24 are all in negative territory, indicating that the price is below the moving averages, and market sentiment is weak. Short-term rebounds are likely, but the strength will be limited.
4. Bollinger Bands
The lower band at 112391 is currently the most critical support. If broken, the market may continue southward, testing the 111000-110500 range.
The upper pressure level is at the middle band 115800, followed by 118000.
Impact of News
Recent macro news is leaning towards risk aversion, with expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and global liquidity being tight, leading to weak net capital inflows (net capital inflow in the chart is -303 million).
Overall sentiment in the crypto market is cautious, with capital on the sidelines and a lack of strong rebound momentum.
Suggested Trading Points
Short-term support: 112500 – 112000 range. If stabilized, a small position can be taken to attempt a rebound, targeting 114800 – 115800.
Key resistance: 115800 (Bollinger middle band). If it cannot break through, the market will likely remain in a bearish consolidation.
Downward target: If 112000 is effectively broken, it may continue to test the 110500 – 109800 range.
Technical Analysis
1. Overall Trend
From the four-hour chart, BTC peaked around 124545 and has been declining ever since. It has currently broken below the middle band (115807) and is approaching the lower band support (112391).
The current price is at 113262, just a step away from the lower band support, and remains bearish in the short term.
2. MACD Indicator
The MACD green bars continue to expand, and the DIF and DEA are diverging downwards, indicating that bearish momentum is still strong, with no signs of stabilization in the short term.
3. BIAS (Bias Rate)
BIAS6, 12, and 24 are all in negative territory, indicating that the price is below the moving averages, and market sentiment is weak. Short-term rebounds are likely, but the strength will be limited.
4. Bollinger Bands
The lower band at 112391 is currently the most critical support. If broken, the market may continue southward, testing the 111000-110500 range.
The upper pressure level is at the middle band 115800, followed by 118000.
Impact of News
Recent macro news is leaning towards risk aversion, with expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and global liquidity being tight, leading to weak net capital inflows (net capital inflow in the chart is -303 million).
Overall sentiment in the crypto market is cautious, with capital on the sidelines and a lack of strong rebound momentum.
Suggested Trading Points
Short-term support: 112500 – 112000 range. If stabilized, a small position can be taken to attempt a rebound, targeting 114800 – 115800.
Key resistance: 115800 (Bollinger middle band). If it cannot break through, the market will likely remain in a bearish consolidation.
Downward target: If 112000 is effectively broken, it may continue to test the 110500 – 109800 range.
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ETH Four Hour Analysis
Technical Analysis
1. Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands
Current price is around 4179, above the lower Bollinger Band (4136), indicating some short-term support, but overall still weak.
The middle band is at 4360, and the upper band is at 4583. The price has been running below the middle band for a long time, and the trend remains in a downward channel.
2. MACD
Both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram continues to be negative, suggesting bearish momentum.
However, the green bars are shortening, showing signs of weakening, which means the bearish strength may gradually diminish.
3. Trading Volume
Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating that the downward momentum has been released, but there has not been a significant rebound in volume.
Impact of News
Recently, the market has been largely influenced by BTC, with ETH moving down in sync. If BTC stabilizes at key support levels, ETH may see a technical rebound; otherwise, there is still a risk of further declines.
Operational Thoughts and Reference Points
Support Levels:
Short-term support: 4160 (if broken, may continue to test the 4100-4050 range).
Strong support: 4000 key level.
Resistance Levels:
Primary resistance: 4280-4320 (previously dense trading area).
Strong resistance: around 4400 (Bollinger middle band overlapping with previous highs).
Strategy Suggestion:
Short-term conservative approach:
Enter long positions in the 4160-4120 range on a pullback, with a stop loss below 4050, aiming for 4280-4320; if it breaks through, target 4380-4400.
If 4160 is effectively broken:
Exercise caution in chasing shorts, looking down towards the 4050-4000 area.
Technical Analysis
1. Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands
Current price is around 4179, above the lower Bollinger Band (4136), indicating some short-term support, but overall still weak.
The middle band is at 4360, and the upper band is at 4583. The price has been running below the middle band for a long time, and the trend remains in a downward channel.
2. MACD
Both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram continues to be negative, suggesting bearish momentum.
However, the green bars are shortening, showing signs of weakening, which means the bearish strength may gradually diminish.
3. Trading Volume
Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating that the downward momentum has been released, but there has not been a significant rebound in volume.
Impact of News
Recently, the market has been largely influenced by BTC, with ETH moving down in sync. If BTC stabilizes at key support levels, ETH may see a technical rebound; otherwise, there is still a risk of further declines.
Operational Thoughts and Reference Points
Support Levels:
Short-term support: 4160 (if broken, may continue to test the 4100-4050 range).
Strong support: 4000 key level.
Resistance Levels:
Primary resistance: 4280-4320 (previously dense trading area).
Strong resistance: around 4400 (Bollinger middle band overlapping with previous highs).
Strategy Suggestion:
Short-term conservative approach:
Enter long positions in the 4160-4120 range on a pullback, with a stop loss below 4050, aiming for 4280-4320; if it breaks through, target 4380-4400.
If 4160 is effectively broken:
Exercise caution in chasing shorts, looking down towards the 4050-4000 area.
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BTC Four Hour Chart Analysis
The trend is still fluctuating near the lower Bollinger Band (lower band 114271), with bulls and bears competing in the key support zone.
MACD remains in the bearish zone, but the green bars have shortened, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum and a demand for a rebound.
Trading volume has recently shrunk, and the market sentiment is cautious, with a directional choice imminent.
Technical Analysis
1. Support Levels
114300 – 114500: Daily low area; if breached, it may further probe 113500.
113000: Previous dense position area; breaking below will accelerate the correction.
2. Resistance Levels
116800 – 117000: Moving average resistance zone; short-term bulls must break through to stabilize.
119200 – 119500: Overlapping with the middle Bollinger Band and previous rebound high points, a strong resistance area.
News
Recently, capital outflow of 185 million USD indicates that short-term funds remain cautious, but the overall position is around 10 billion, suggesting that institutions have not exited en masse, but rather a pattern of oscillation and accumulation. If there are no significant negative news in the market, the probability of a rebound still exists.
Trading Strategy
Long Position Strategy:
If stabilizing after a pullback in the 114300 – 114500 zone, consider trying to buy low, targeting 116800 – 117000, and if broken, then look at 119200 – 119500.
Stop-loss should be controlled below 113000.
Short Position Strategy:
If the rebound does not break 116800 – 117000, consider lightly shorting, targeting down to 114500 – 113800.
Stop-loss should be controlled above 117500.
Conclusion
The short-term trend remains weak and fluctuating; focus on the 114300 support and 117000 resistance. A breakout in either direction will usher in a new wave of volatility.
The trend is still fluctuating near the lower Bollinger Band (lower band 114271), with bulls and bears competing in the key support zone.
MACD remains in the bearish zone, but the green bars have shortened, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum and a demand for a rebound.
Trading volume has recently shrunk, and the market sentiment is cautious, with a directional choice imminent.
Technical Analysis
1. Support Levels
114300 – 114500: Daily low area; if breached, it may further probe 113500.
113000: Previous dense position area; breaking below will accelerate the correction.
2. Resistance Levels
116800 – 117000: Moving average resistance zone; short-term bulls must break through to stabilize.
119200 – 119500: Overlapping with the middle Bollinger Band and previous rebound high points, a strong resistance area.
News
Recently, capital outflow of 185 million USD indicates that short-term funds remain cautious, but the overall position is around 10 billion, suggesting that institutions have not exited en masse, but rather a pattern of oscillation and accumulation. If there are no significant negative news in the market, the probability of a rebound still exists.
Trading Strategy
Long Position Strategy:
If stabilizing after a pullback in the 114300 – 114500 zone, consider trying to buy low, targeting 116800 – 117000, and if broken, then look at 119200 – 119500.
Stop-loss should be controlled below 113000.
Short Position Strategy:
If the rebound does not break 116800 – 117000, consider lightly shorting, targeting down to 114500 – 113800.
Stop-loss should be controlled above 117500.
Conclusion
The short-term trend remains weak and fluctuating; focus on the 114300 support and 117000 resistance. A breakout in either direction will usher in a new wave of volatility.
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BTC One Hour Chart Analysis
Technical Analysis
1. Short-term Trend
From the chart, we can see that BTC experienced a rapid decline after facing resistance above 118,000, hitting a low around 114,950, and is currently fluctuating near 115,300.
Bollinger Bands: The lower band has been breached, and the price is significantly deviated, indicating a demand for short-term pullback and correction.
MACD: The green bars continue to expand, and bearish momentum remains strong, but there are signs of an oversold condition.
Moving Average System: The candlestick has significantly broken below the middle band, indicating a bearish short-term trend.
2. Key Levels
Upper Resistance Level: 117,200—117,800 (previous middle band and areas of high trading volume).
Lower Support Level: 114,800 (previous low), with further support around 113,600.
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📰 News Impact
From a news perspective, the overall market risk sentiment is weak, combined with fluctuations in U.S. stocks and macro data, BTC is under noticeable pressure.
The outflow of main funds indicates short-term selling pressure, but extreme declines are often followed by corrective rebounds.
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Trading Strategy
Short-term Strategy:
1. If BTC stabilizes around 114,800—115,000 during a pullback, consider buying low with a target of 117,200—117,800. A break below 114,500 requires a stop-loss.
2. If it rebounds to the 117,200—117,800 resistance zone and encounters resistance, consider shorting with a target back to 115,000.
Medium-term Direction:
The bearish trend remains, and only a stable position above 118,500 can reopen upward potential.
Technical Analysis
1. Short-term Trend
From the chart, we can see that BTC experienced a rapid decline after facing resistance above 118,000, hitting a low around 114,950, and is currently fluctuating near 115,300.
Bollinger Bands: The lower band has been breached, and the price is significantly deviated, indicating a demand for short-term pullback and correction.
MACD: The green bars continue to expand, and bearish momentum remains strong, but there are signs of an oversold condition.
Moving Average System: The candlestick has significantly broken below the middle band, indicating a bearish short-term trend.
2. Key Levels
Upper Resistance Level: 117,200—117,800 (previous middle band and areas of high trading volume).
Lower Support Level: 114,800 (previous low), with further support around 113,600.
---
📰 News Impact
From a news perspective, the overall market risk sentiment is weak, combined with fluctuations in U.S. stocks and macro data, BTC is under noticeable pressure.
The outflow of main funds indicates short-term selling pressure, but extreme declines are often followed by corrective rebounds.
---
Trading Strategy
Short-term Strategy:
1. If BTC stabilizes around 114,800—115,000 during a pullback, consider buying low with a target of 117,200—117,800. A break below 114,500 requires a stop-loss.
2. If it rebounds to the 117,200—117,800 resistance zone and encounters resistance, consider shorting with a target back to 115,000.
Medium-term Direction:
The bearish trend remains, and only a stable position above 118,500 can reopen upward potential.
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