BTC Four-Hour Analysis

Technical Analysis

1. Overall Trend

From the four-hour chart, BTC peaked around 124545 and has been declining ever since. It has currently broken below the middle band (115807) and is approaching the lower band support (112391).

The current price is at 113262, just a step away from the lower band support, and remains bearish in the short term.

2. MACD Indicator

The MACD green bars continue to expand, and the DIF and DEA are diverging downwards, indicating that bearish momentum is still strong, with no signs of stabilization in the short term.

3. BIAS (Bias Rate)

BIAS6, 12, and 24 are all in negative territory, indicating that the price is below the moving averages, and market sentiment is weak. Short-term rebounds are likely, but the strength will be limited.

4. Bollinger Bands

The lower band at 112391 is currently the most critical support. If broken, the market may continue southward, testing the 111000-110500 range.

The upper pressure level is at the middle band 115800, followed by 118000.

Impact of News

Recent macro news is leaning towards risk aversion, with expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and global liquidity being tight, leading to weak net capital inflows (net capital inflow in the chart is -303 million).

Overall sentiment in the crypto market is cautious, with capital on the sidelines and a lack of strong rebound momentum.

Suggested Trading Points

Short-term support: 112500 – 112000 range. If stabilized, a small position can be taken to attempt a rebound, targeting 114800 – 115800.

Key resistance: 115800 (Bollinger middle band). If it cannot break through, the market will likely remain in a bearish consolidation.

Downward target: If 112000 is effectively broken, it may continue to test the 110500 – 109800 range.