ETH Four Hour Analysis

Technical Analysis

1. Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

Current price is around 4179, above the lower Bollinger Band (4136), indicating some short-term support, but overall still weak.

The middle band is at 4360, and the upper band is at 4583. The price has been running below the middle band for a long time, and the trend remains in a downward channel.

2. MACD

Both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, and the MACD histogram continues to be negative, suggesting bearish momentum.

However, the green bars are shortening, showing signs of weakening, which means the bearish strength may gradually diminish.

3. Trading Volume

Trading volume continues to shrink, indicating that the downward momentum has been released, but there has not been a significant rebound in volume.

Impact of News

Recently, the market has been largely influenced by BTC, with ETH moving down in sync. If BTC stabilizes at key support levels, ETH may see a technical rebound; otherwise, there is still a risk of further declines.

Operational Thoughts and Reference Points

Support Levels:

Short-term support: 4160 (if broken, may continue to test the 4100-4050 range).

Strong support: 4000 key level.

Resistance Levels:

Primary resistance: 4280-4320 (previously dense trading area).

Strong resistance: around 4400 (Bollinger middle band overlapping with previous highs).

Strategy Suggestion:

Short-term conservative approach:

Enter long positions in the 4160-4120 range on a pullback, with a stop loss below 4050, aiming for 4280-4320; if it breaks through, target 4380-4400.

If 4160 is effectively broken:

Exercise caution in chasing shorts, looking down towards the 4050-4000 area.