BTC Four Hour Chart Analysis

The trend is still fluctuating near the lower Bollinger Band (lower band 114271), with bulls and bears competing in the key support zone.

MACD remains in the bearish zone, but the green bars have shortened, indicating a weakening of bearish momentum and a demand for a rebound.

Trading volume has recently shrunk, and the market sentiment is cautious, with a directional choice imminent.

Technical Analysis

1. Support Levels

114300 – 114500: Daily low area; if breached, it may further probe 113500.

113000: Previous dense position area; breaking below will accelerate the correction.

2. Resistance Levels

116800 – 117000: Moving average resistance zone; short-term bulls must break through to stabilize.

119200 – 119500: Overlapping with the middle Bollinger Band and previous rebound high points, a strong resistance area.

News

Recently, capital outflow of 185 million USD indicates that short-term funds remain cautious, but the overall position is around 10 billion, suggesting that institutions have not exited en masse, but rather a pattern of oscillation and accumulation. If there are no significant negative news in the market, the probability of a rebound still exists.

Trading Strategy

Long Position Strategy:

If stabilizing after a pullback in the 114300 – 114500 zone, consider trying to buy low, targeting 116800 – 117000, and if broken, then look at 119200 – 119500.

Stop-loss should be controlled below 113000.

Short Position Strategy:

If the rebound does not break 116800 – 117000, consider lightly shorting, targeting down to 114500 – 113800.

Stop-loss should be controlled above 117500.

Conclusion

The short-term trend remains weak and fluctuating; focus on the 114300 support and 117000 resistance. A breakout in either direction will usher in a new wave of volatility.