就事论事

$BTC ### **Conclusion and Action Strategy**
- **Core Logic**:
**Long-term trend is bearish** (EMA(99) resistance), **short-term rebound demand exists** (KDJ oversold + OBV recovery), but caution is needed for the continuation of wave C.

- **Scenario One (High Probability)**:
- Currently a sub-wave rebound in wave C (C-2), rebound target reference EMA(25)=85,936 USDT.
- If the rebound fails, the decline of wave C-3 will start, target support at 64,879 USDT (EMA(99)).

- **Scenario Two (Low Probability)**:
- If the price breaks through EMA(25) with volume and holds, it may initiate a new round of upward wave (wave 3), targeting 95,000 USDT.

**Action Suggestions**:
1. **Short-term**:
- Aggressive traders can short lightly in the range of 85,000-85,936 USDT, with a stop loss above EMA(25) (86,000 USDT), target 64,900 USDT.
- If the price breaks 86,000 USDT and holds, switch to long, targeting 90,000 USDT.
2. **Long-term**:
- Wait for the price to test near EMA(99)=64,879 USDT, confirm support before positioning long.

#加密市场反弹 - **Short-Term Strategy**:
- **Bullish**: If the price stabilizes above 1,695 (EMA7), consider a small long position with a target of 1,706→1,750 (stop loss at 1,680).
- **Bearish**: If there is resistance around 1,706 during a rebound, consider shorting with a target of 1,650 (stop loss at 1,720).
- **Medium to Long-Term Strategy**:
- **Holders**: Reduce positions to mitigate risk, maintaining a core position to observe the effectiveness of EMA(7) support.
- **Observers**: Wait for the price to clearly break above 1,706 or fall below 1,695 before taking action.
- **Risk Warning**:
- **Volume Decline Risk**: A continuous decrease in trading volume may accelerate trend reversal.
- **EMA(99) Resistance**: Long-term moving averages exert downward pressure, limiting rebound potential.

---

### Summary
ETH/USDT **Short-Term Pullback Testing Key Support**, technical indicators show a stalemate between bulls and bears. In terms of action:
- **Aggressive Traders**: Buy low and sell high within the range (1,695-1,706), with strict stop losses.
- **Conservative Traders**: Wait for the price to break above 1,706 or fall below 1,695 before following up, avoiding left-side trading.
- **Core Logic**: The market is at a directional decision point, and caution is advised against false breakouts and trend reversal risks.

$ETH - **Short-term Strategy**:
- **Long Position**: If the price stabilizes above 1,695 (EMA7), consider taking a small long position, target 1,706→1,750 (stop loss 1,680).
- **Short Position**: When rebounding near 1,706, consider taking a short position, target 1,650 (stop loss 1,720).
- **Medium to Long-term Strategy**:
- **Holders**: Reduce positions to avoid risk, keep the base position to observe the effectiveness of the EMA(7) support.
- **Observers**: Wait for the price to clearly break above 1,706 or drop below 1,695 to act accordingly.
- **Risk Warning**:
- **Declining Volume Risk**: Continuous shrinkage in trading volume may accelerate trend reversal.
- **EMA(99) Pressure**: Long-term moving averages are pressing from a high position, limiting rebound space.

---

### Summary
ETH/USDT **Short-term Pullback Testing Key Support**, technical analysis shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. In terms of operation:
- **Aggressive Traders**: Sell high and buy low within the range (1,695-1,706), with strict stop-loss.
- **Conservative Traders**: Wait until the price breaks above 1,706 or drops below 1,695 to follow up, avoiding left-side trading.
- **Core Logic**: The market is at a directional choice node, and one should be cautious of false breakouts and trend reversal risks.

#Metaplanet增持比特币 1. **Long Position Holders**:
- Take partial profits around 93,888 (30%), set a trailing stop for the remaining position below 90,000.
- If it breaks 95,000, add to the position (target 100,000–105,000).

2. **No Position / Light Position Holders**:
- **Aggressive Strategy**: Lightly buy at the current price (5% position), stop loss at 90,000, target 95,000.
- **Conservative Strategy**: Wait for a pullback to the 90,000–88,000 range to build positions in batches, stop loss at 86,000.

3. **Risk Control**:
- If the price falls below 90,000, reduce position by 50% and observe EMA(25)=87,469 support.
- Watch for OBV divergence (new price highs but declining OBV); if this occurs, exit immediately.

---

#### *Elliott Wave Theory Perspective**
- **Current Stage**: Possibly in the **early stage of Wave 5**, with the next target after breaking 93,888 being 95,000–100,000.
- **Characteristics of Wave 5**: Moderate increase in trading volume, OBV reaching new highs, KDJ overbought and flattening.
- **Potential Risk**: If Wave 5 fails (falls below 84,857), it may enter a deep correction.

---

### **Summary**
- **Short-term**: Overbought but strong trend, pay attention to the sustainability of volume after breaking 93,888, target 95,000.
- **Medium-term**: After stabilizing at 95,000, the target for Wave 5 is 100,000–105,000.
- **Strategy**: Take profits in batches for long positions, for those not yet entered, position during pullbacks, and implement strict stop losses.

**Key Validation**:
- Breaking 95,000 requires a trading volume of ≥4 billion USDT.
- OBV must continue to rise, with no divergence signals.

#Strategy增持比特币 1. **Long Position Holders**:
- Take partial profits around 93,888 (30%), set a trailing stop loss for the remaining position below 90,000.
- If it breaks 95,000, add to positions (target 100,000–105,000).

2. **Empty/Light Position Holders**:
- **Aggressive Strategy**: Lightly test long at the current price (5% position), stop loss at 90,000, target 95,000.
- **Conservative Strategy**: Wait for a pullback to the 90,000–88,000 range to build positions in batches, stop loss at 86,000.

3. **Risk Control**:
- If the price drops below 90,000, reduce position by 50% and observe EMA(25)=87,469 support.
- Watch for OBV divergence (new price highs but declining OBV); if it occurs, exit immediately.

---

#### **Wave Theory Perspective**
- **Current Stage**: Possibly in the **initial stage of Wave 5**, after breaking 93,888, the next target is 95,000–100,000.
- **Wave 5 Characteristics**: Volume moderately increases, OBV hits new highs, KDJ shows overbought divergence.
- **Potential Risk**: If Wave 5 fails (drops below 84,857), it may enter a deep correction.

---

### **Summary**
- **Short-term**: Overbought but strong trend; focus on the sustainability of volume after breaking 93,888, target 95,000.
- **Medium-term**: After stabilizing at 95,000, the Wave 5 target looks at 100,000–105,000.
- **Strategy**: Gradually take profits on long positions, those not in should look for pullback opportunities, strict stop loss.

**Key Validation**:
- Breaking 95,000 must be accompanied by a trading volume ≥ 4 billion USDT.
- OBV must continue to rise, with no divergence signals.

$ETH - **Short-term Strategy**:
- **Long Position**: If the price stabilizes at 1,750, you can take a small position to go long, with a target of 1,778→1,800 (stop loss at 1,730).
- **Short Position**: If KDJ is overbought and triggers a pullback, you can try shorting near 1,778 (stop loss at 1,790, target at 1,720).
- **Medium to Long-term Strategy**:
- **Trend Traders**: Wait for confirmation of a golden cross between EMA(25) and EMA(99) before increasing positions, with a target above 1,900.
- **Conservatives**: Gradually build positions if it bounces back to 1,644 (EMA99) without breaking, to avoid chasing highs.
- **Risk Warning**:
- The overbought indicator (KDJ) shows a high probability of a short-term pullback, do not blindly chase prices.
- Pay attention to whether OBV can turn positive; if the rebound is on low volume, it may be a false breakout.

$BTC ---

### **Latest Data Technical Analysis (BTC/USDT)**

---

#### **1. Volume Assessment: Significant Improvement**
- **24-hour Trading Volume**: 2.286 billion USDT (**increased by 72% from the previous 1.326 billion**), indicating a substantial increase in market activity and positive capital inflow.
- **Vol (Current Trading Volume)**: 7,956.62 BTC, higher than MA(5)=5,064.31 and MA(10)=3,174.73, showing **short-term volume is continuously expanding**, supporting the current upward trend.
- **OBV (On-Balance Volume)**: +94,829.53 (**turned positive from negative**), confirming buyer dominance and significant capital inflow.

---

#### **2. Price and Indicator Resonance**
- **KDJ Indicator**:
- J=102.20 (**severely overbought**), short-term pullback risk is rising, but if the price consolidates at a high level, it may continue to be strong.
- K (79.55) and D (68.22) are still in an upward trend, indicating that momentum is not completely exhausted.
- **EMA Support**:
- Price (88,063) is stable above EMA(7)=86,644 and EMA(25)=85,440, and far above EMA(99)=84,045, indicating a **strong long-term trend**.

---

#### **3. Key Resistance and Targets**
- **Recent Resistance**:
- **88,465.99 (24h High)**: May test the round number 90k after a breakout.
- **95,000.00 (Noted Resistance)**: Mid-term bull-bear dividing line, target after a breakout is 100k–105k.
- **Potential Pullback Levels**:
- **EMA(7)=86,600**: If there is a pullback, this area serves as the first support.
- **EMA(25)=85,400**: Strong support, breaking below this would weaken the short-term trend.

---

### **Operational Suggestions**
1. **Short-term Strategy**:
- **Long Position Holders**: It is recommended to take partial profits around 88,500 (lock in profits), with remaining positions trailing stop loss set below 86,600.
- **Cash Holders**: Wait for a pullback to the 86,600–85,400 range for phased entry, with a stop loss at 84,000.
2. **Mid-term Strategy**:
- If it breaks 95,000, increase positions targeting 100k–105k (Fibonacci extension levels).
- If KDJ forms a death cross at high levels (K crosses below D), be cautious of a deep pullback to 82,000–80,000.
3. **Risk Control**:
- Avoid chasing highs in an overbought environment, prioritize right-side trading.
- Monitor whether OBV continues to rise; if there is divergence (new price high but OBV declines), reduce positions immediately.

---

### **Summary**
The current upward trend is driven by **simultaneous increase in volume and price + capital inflow (OBV turning positive)**, with short-term targets looking at 90k–95k.

#中美贸易关系 ---

### **Latest Data Technology Analysis (BTC/USDT)**

---

#### **1. Volume Assessment: Significant Improvement**
- **24-hour Trading Volume**: 2.286 billion USDT (**up 72% from the previous 1.326 billion**), indicating a substantial increase in market activity and active capital inflow.
- **Vol (Current Trading Volume)**: 7,956.62 BTC, higher than MA(5)=5,064.31 and MA(10)=3,174.73, showing **short-term volume continues to expand**, supporting the current upward trend.
- **OBV (On-Balance Volume)**: +94,829.53 (**turned positive from negative**), confirming buyer dominance and significant capital inflow.

---

#### **2. Price and Indicator Resonance**
- **KDJ Indicator**:
- J=102.20 (**severely overbought**), short-term pullback risk increases, but if the price consolidates at a high level, it may continue to be strong.
- K (79.55) and D (68.22) are still in an upward trend, indicating momentum is not completely exhausted.
- **EMA Support**:
- Price (88,063) stands firm above EMA(7)=86,644 and EMA(25)=85,440, and is far above EMA(99)=84,045, **long-term trend is strong**.

---

#### **3. Key Resistance and Targets**
- **Recent Resistance**:
- **88,465.99 (24h High)**: Breaking through this level may test the psychological level of 90k.
- **95,000.00 (Marked Resistance)**: Mid-term dividing line between bulls and bears, breaking through targets at 100k–105k.
- **Potential Pullback Levels**:
- **EMA(7)=86,600**: If a pullback occurs, this area is the first support.
- **EMA(25)=85,400**: Strong support, if broken, the short-term trend weakens.

---

### **Operational Recommendations**
1. **Short-term Strategy**:
- **Long Position Holders**: It is recommended to partially take profits near 88,500 (lock in profits), and set trailing stop-loss for the remaining position below 86,600.
- **New Investors**: Wait for a pullback to the 86,600–85,400 range to build positions in batches, with a stop-loss at 84,000.
2. **Mid-term Strategy**:
- If breaking through 95,000, increase positions targeting 100k–105k (Fibonacci extension levels).
- If KDJ shows a high-level death cross (K crosses below D), beware of a deep pullback to 82,000–80,000.
3. **Risk Control**:
- Avoid chasing highs in an overbought environment, prioritize right-side trading.
- Monitor if OBV continues to rise, if there is divergence (new price high but OBV declines), reduce positions immediately.

#加密市场反弹 ---

### **Latest Data Technology Analysis (BTC/USDT)**

---

#### **1. Volume Assessment: Significant Improvement**
- **24-hour Trading Volume**: 2.286 billion USDT (**increased by 72% from the previous 1.326 billion**), indicating a substantial increase in market activity and active capital inflow.
- **Vol (Current Trading Volume)**: 7,956.62 BTC, higher than MA(5)=5,064.31 and MA(10)=3,174.73, showing **short-term volume continues to expand**, supporting the current uptrend.
- **OBV (On-Balance Volume)**: +94,829.53 (**turned positive from negative**), confirming buyer dominance and significant capital inflow.

---

#### **2. Price and Indicator Resonance**
- **KDJ Indicator**:
- J=102.20 (**severely overbought**), short-term correction risk increases, but if the price consolidates at a high level, it may continue to be strong.
- K (79.55) and D (68.22) are still in an upward trend, indicating that momentum is not fully exhausted.
- **EMA Support**:
- Price (88,063) stands above EMA(7)=86,644 and EMA(25)=85,440, and is far above EMA(99)=84,045, indicating **strong long-term trend**.

---

#### **3. Key Resistance and Targets**
- **Recent Resistance**:
- **88,465.99 (24h High)**: After breaking through, it may test the round number 90k.
- **95,000.00 (Marked Resistance)**: Mid-term bullish-bearish dividing line, after breaking through, the target looks at 100k–105k.
- **Potential Retracement Levels**:
- **EMA(7)=86,600**: If there is a retracement, this area is the first support.
- **EMA(25)=85,400**: Strong support, if broken, the short-term trend weakens.

---

### **Operational Suggestions**
1. **Short-term Strategy**:
- **Long Position Holders**: It is recommended to take partial profit near 88,500 (lock in profits), with the remaining position trailing stop-loss set below 86,600.
- **Empty Position Holders**: Wait for a retracement to the 86,600–85,400 range to build positions in batches, with a stop-loss at 84,000.
2. **Mid-term Strategy**:
- If it breaks through 95,000, increase positions with targets looking at 100k–105k (Fibonacci expansion levels).
- If KDJ forms a dead cross at a high (K crosses below D), be cautious of a deep retracement to 82,000–80,000.
3. **Risk Control**:
- Avoid chasing highs in an overbought environment, prioritize right-side trading.
- Monitor whether OBV continues to rise, if there’s divergence (new price highs but OBV declines), immediately reduce positions.

$TRX #### **Tron Ecosystem and ETF Feasibility Assessment**
1. **Technical Fundamentals**
- **TPS and Scalability**: Tron claims a processing speed of 2000 TPS, suitable for high-frequency trading scenarios, but actual application needs verification.
- **Ecosystem Applications**: USDT accounts for over 50% of the issuance on the Tron chain, with stablecoin infrastructure being its core advantage.

2. **Compliance Barriers**
- **Regulatory Attitude**: The U.S. SEC has strict criteria for classifying “security tokens”; TRX needs to demonstrate its decentralized attributes to avoid compliance risks.
- **Competitive Landscape**: If public chains like Solana and Cardano launch ETFs first, Tron may miss the opportunity.

---

#### **Investment Strategy Recommendations**
1. **Short-term (ETF Expectation Phase)**
- **Bullish Strategy**: If market rumors about the ETF arise, consider buying on dips (support level 0.2408), with targets of 0.2652~0.3318.
- **Bearish Hedge**: If regulators send negative signals, short-term short to 0.2354, with a stop-loss at 0.2454.

2. **Medium to Long-term (Post-ETF Launch)**
- **Trend Following**: If the ETF is approved, hold TRX long-term and pay attention to the collaborative growth of ecosystem projects (like JUST, SUN Protocol).
- **Risk Control**: ETF fund flows need to be monitored in real-time; if holdings continue to decrease, be cautious of liquidity contraction risks.

---

#### **Risk Warnings**
- **Policy Uncertainty**: The global cryptocurrency regulatory framework has yet to be unified, and the ETF advancement may be hindered by regional policies.
- **Ecosystem Dependency Risk**: Tron is overly reliant on the USDT ecosystem; if stablecoin regulations tighten, TRX valuation may be impacted.
- **Market Manipulation Suspicions**: TRX historically shows high volatility; if the ETF is launched, be wary of short-term price manipulation.

---

**Summary**: The likelihood of Tron ETF launching in the short term is low, but if it happens, it will become an important catalyst for TRX's value reassessment. Investors need to closely track regulatory dynamics and ecosystem progress, combining technical aspects (like EMA99 support) with news for flexible operations. The current recommendation is to focus on range trading and follow the trend once key levels are broken.

#波场ETF #### **Feasibility Assessment of the Tron Ecosystem and ETF**
1. **Technical Fundamentals**
- **TPS and Scalability**: Tron claims a processing speed of 2000 TPS, suitable for high-frequency trading scenarios, but practical applications need verification.
- **Ecosystem Applications**: The issuance of USDT on the Tron chain accounts for over 50%, and the stablecoin infrastructure is its core advantage.

2. **Compliance Barriers**
- **Regulatory Attitude**: The U.S. SEC has strict criteria for recognizing “security tokens,” and TRX must prove its decentralized attributes to avoid compliance risks.
- **Competitive Landscape**: If public chains like Solana and Cardano launch ETFs first, Tron may miss the opportunity.

---

#### **Investment Strategy Recommendations**
1. **Short-Term (ETF Expectation Phase)**
- **Bullish Strategy**: If market rumors related to ETFs arise, consider entering at lower levels (support at 0.2408), with a target of 0.2652~0.3318.
- **Bearish Hedge**: If regulatory signals are negative, consider shorting to 0.2354, with a stop-loss at 0.2454.

2. **Medium to Long-Term (Post-ETF Launch)**
- **Trend Following**: If the ETF is approved, hold TRX long-term and pay attention to the synergistic growth of ecosystem projects (like JUST, SUN Protocol).
- **Risk Control**: The flow of ETF funds should be monitored in real-time; if holdings continue to decline, be wary of liquidity contraction risks.

---

#### **Risk Warning**
- **Policy Uncertainty**: The global regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies has not yet been unified, and the advancement of ETFs may be hindered by regional policies.
- **Ecosystem Dependency Risk**: Tron is overly reliant on the USDT ecosystem; if stablecoin regulations tighten, TRX valuation may be impacted.
- **Market Manipulation Suspicions**: TRX has historically high volatility; if the ETF is launched, be cautious of short-term price manipulation.

---

**Summary**: The probability of Tron ETF launching in the short term is low, but if it materializes, it will become an important catalyst for the revaluation of TRX. Investors need to closely track regulatory dynamics and ecosystem progress, combining technical aspects (like EMA99 support) with news-driven operations. Current advice is to focus on range trading, and follow the trend after breaking key levels.

Multiple sources report that Trump is seriously considering replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell ahead of schedule, and there is even a backup candidate—former board member Kevin Warsh.
Although Warsh himself suggested "don't move Powell," Trump clearly stated in the Oval Office: "If I want him out, he will be gone very soon."
⚠️ Once the action is taken, it will almost certainly reach the Supreme Court, and the Federal Reserve's "independence" will face unprecedented scrutiny. The market has long been highly sensitive to this potential "intervention."
Currently, the beautiful country's economy is facing a policy dilemma; if Powell is replaced, the financial markets may experience severe fluctuations.

$ETH ### ETH/USDT Data Analysis

1. **Current Price**
- **1,604.67 USDT**（≈¥11,714.09），24-hour increase **+1.05%**。
- **24-hour Highest Price**: 1,613.48 USDT（close to the current price, may face resistance）。
- **24-hour Lowest Price**: 1,579.09 USDT（support level）。

2. **Trading Volume and Amount**
- 24-hour trading volume: 191,293.38 ETH, trading amount **305 million USDT**, market activity is relatively high。

3. **Moving Average Analysis (EMA)**
- **Short-term**: EMA(7)=1,597.28（current price slightly higher, short-term bullish）。
- **Medium-term**: EMA(25)=1,707.33（current price lower, medium-term resistance level）。
- **Long-term**: EMA(99)=2,249.28（long-term trend is clearly bearish）。
- **Conclusion**: Short-term rebound, but medium to long-term still in a downward trend。

4. **Technical Indicators**
- **KDJ**: K=56.03, D=54.39, J=59.31（neutral area, no clear overbought/oversold signals）。
- **OBV**: -5,828,316.56（capital outflow, insufficient upward momentum）。
- **Volume MA**: MA(5)=372,595.22, MA(10)=508,125.05（recent trading volume decline）。

5. **Key Signals**
- Price close to 24-hour high, need to be alert to resistance level（1,613.48 USDT）。
- Negative OBV indicates significant selling pressure, if the price continues to rise but OBV does not rebound, a pullback may occur。

**Action Suggestions**：
- **Short-term**: If it breaks through the 1,613.48 USDT resistance, there may be further upside; if it pulls back, pay attention to the 1,579.09 support.
- **Medium to Long-term**: EMA(25) and EMA(99) pressure is significant, be cautious in chasing the rise before the trend reverses.

In the second quarter of 2023, the cryptocurrency market showed complex dynamics.
After the total market value fell to $2.8 trillion in the first quarter, there was a slight rebound at the beginning of the second quarter, but it was still affected by macroeconomic uncertainties, resulting in high volatility.
Bitcoin's dominance solidified, with a market share of 60.6%, and its price hovered around $85,000, outperforming most altcoins.
Solana performed exceptionally well due to the launch of Canada's first Solana ETF and a meme craze on-chain, with its price rising 36% from the low point in the first quarter. Ethereum, on the other hand, continued to be sluggish, with its market share falling to 7.3%, a five-year low, partly due to a lack of innovation and a slowdown in DeFi activity.

$SOL #### **Operational Suggestions**
- **Short-term**: The price is close to the resistance level **136.20**; if it cannot break through, it may fall back to the support level **132.59**. It is recommended to set a stop loss (if it falls below **132.50**).
- **Medium to Long-term**: The EMA long-term trend is upward (EMA99 is **126.06**); if it pulls back to around **130**, it can be considered an entry opportunity, but it should be combined with fundamentals (such as Solana ecosystem development).
- **Risk Warning**: Pay close attention to the negative OBV and shrinking trading volume. If the price falls below **EMA25 (131.72)**, it may accelerate the decline.

#Solana激增 #### **Operation Suggestions**
- **Short-term**: Price is close to the resistance level **136.20**, if it cannot break through, it may fall back to the support level **132.59**. It is recommended to set a stop-loss (if it falls below **132.50**).
- **Medium to Long-term**: EMA long-term trend is upward (EMA99 is **126.06**), if it retraces to around **130**, it can be seen as an entry opportunity, but it needs to be combined with the fundamentals (such as Solana ecosystem development).
- **Risk Warning**: Pay special attention to negative OBV and shrinking trading volume, if the price falls below **EMA25 (131.72)**, it may accelerate the decline.

$BTC ### **Wave Theory Strategy**
1. **Bullish Scenario**:
- If the price breaks above 85,500 and stabilizes above the mid-term EMA (86,710), it confirms the start of Wave 5, targeting the previous high of 109,588 (weekly resistance).
- If the short-term support of 83,275 holds, it can be seen as the completion of Wave 4 correction, positioning for long positions.

2. **Bearish Risk**:
- If the price falls below 83,275 and OBV declines simultaneously, it may enter a larger level adjustment (like an ABC three-wave structure), targeting 80,547 (EMA99) or lower.
- If the mid-term EMA (86,710) continues to apply pressure, beware of false breakout risks.

---

### **Conclusion**
The current price is in the **adjustment phase of an uptrend** (likely Wave 4), and in the short term, attention should be paid to the breakout direction of the resistance at 85,500 and support at 83,275. If it holds above the resistance level, it is expected to initiate Wave 5 upward; if it loses support, the adjustment period may be extended. It is recommended to combine EMA and volume dynamics for tracking, avoiding counter-trend operations.

#鲍威尔发言 ### **Wave Theory Strategy**
1. **Bullish Scenario**:
- If the price breaks above 85,500 and holds above the medium-term EMA (86,710), it confirms the start of Wave 5, targeting the previous high of 109,588 (weekly level resistance).
- Short-term support at 83,275 should not break; this can be seen as the completion of Wave 4 pullback, allowing for long positions.

2. **Bearish Risk**:
- If the price falls below 83,275 and OBV declines simultaneously, it may enter a larger level adjustment (such as ABC three-wave structure), targeting 80,547 (EMA99) or lower.
- If the medium-term EMA (86,710) continues to exert pressure, one needs to be cautious of false breakout risks.

---

### **Conclusion**
The current price is in the **adjustment phase of an uptrend** (most likely Wave 4), and attention should be paid to the breakout direction of resistance at 85,500 and support at 83,275. If it holds above the resistance level, Wave 5 may begin to surge; if it loses support, it could extend the adjustment period. It is recommended to dynamically track EMA and trading volume to avoid counter-trend operations.

To prevent conflicts of interest and protect the public interest, many countries impose restrictions on the securities trading behavior of members of Congress. These restrictions include prohibiting the use of non-public information for stock trading, requiring the disclosure of assets and transaction records, and banning trading of specific assets during certain time periods. The aim is to avoid "insider trading" and the act of seeking personal gain through legislation, thus maintaining the credibility of legislative bodies. For example, the U.S. STOCK Act explicitly requires members of Congress to disclose their securities transactions to ensure transparency. Strengthening regulatory and penal mechanisms helps prevent corruption and enhance public trust in the government.

#加拿大推出SolanaETF - Key Support: 85.23 (current buying concentration area), if it breaks, it may accelerate downward.
#### **Time Node Reminder**
- **Important Dates**: 2024-12-18, 2025-02-11, 2025-04-07 (potential futures contract expiration or project event days), need to pay attention to changes in market sentiment.

---

#### **Operational Suggestions**
- **Short-term Strategy**: If the price cannot stabilize above 125 USDT (near EMA 25), it may test the 85-95 support area, it is recommended to observe or set stop-loss.
- **Long-term Layout**: The long-term EMA (153.78) is well above the current price, need to wait for a clear reversal signal (such as a volume breakout above EMA 99).

---

**Summary**: The current market is short-term bearish, it is recommended to adopt a defensive strategy, focusing on key support levels and changes in trading volume.