#鲍威尔发言 ### **Wave Theory Strategy**

1. **Bullish Scenario**:

- If the price breaks above 85,500 and holds above the medium-term EMA (86,710), it confirms the start of Wave 5, targeting the previous high of 109,588 (weekly level resistance).

- Short-term support at 83,275 should not break; this can be seen as the completion of Wave 4 pullback, allowing for long positions.

2. **Bearish Risk**:

- If the price falls below 83,275 and OBV declines simultaneously, it may enter a larger level adjustment (such as ABC three-wave structure), targeting 80,547 (EMA99) or lower.

- If the medium-term EMA (86,710) continues to exert pressure, one needs to be cautious of false breakout risks.

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### **Conclusion**

The current price is in the **adjustment phase of an uptrend** (most likely Wave 4), and attention should be paid to the breakout direction of resistance at 85,500 and support at 83,275. If it holds above the resistance level, Wave 5 may begin to surge; if it loses support, it could extend the adjustment period. It is recommended to dynamically track EMA and trading volume to avoid counter-trend operations.