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Today is March 25th. Bitcoin and US stocks have emerged from extreme fear after experiencing the most terrifying moments of Trump's tariffs. Bitcoin started from 76,000 and has formed a very perfect upward channel on the 4-hour chart. Here’s a bit of my advice: as a loyal supporter of Bitcoin, I have always been a staunch bull. During the most fearful times, even my fans would shout that Bitcoin would go to 50,000 or 60,000. How to say, it’s human nature. After all, Bitcoin fell from 109,000 all the way down to 76,000. Overcoming fear without being overly bearish is quite difficult. Personally, I posted an article at 78,000 expressing my views. Historically, whether it’s Bitcoin or US stocks, the patterns of top-bottom conversion are very effective. It took a full 7 months for the 73,000 peak last year to break through. As a major peak from last year, once it breaks through, it will become a solid bottom this year. Bitcoin's downward limit is at most 73,000, while the upward potential is unlimited. Therefore, buying Bitcoin at 78,000 with a maximum drop of 5,000 points is very cost-effective. I am glad I did not become overly bearish. So how will the market trend next? From the 4-hour upward channel, 89,100 is the upper edge of the next channel. Both Bitcoin and the Nasdaq left downward gaps over the weekend; Bitcoin is between 84,000 and 85,000. Generally speaking, the probability of filling a gap within half a month is as high as 90%. Therefore, for those who have missed out, especially in spot trading, I suggest at least buying spot Bitcoin at 84,000. Do not hope that Bitcoin will drop back to 76,000 just because it was once at that price. It’s human nature. If a sudden market event causes Bitcoin to drop back to 76,000, trust me, those who didn’t buy last time won't buy this time either. They will think of buying at 73,000 support or even 69,000. Bitcoin has developed for 16 years and has never trapped anyone. Countless people have waited for a further drop before buying. Therefore, if Bitcoin goes to 84,000 to fill the gap, it might be a good time to buy some in the spot market. When will the market enter the next stage of weekly-level surge? Personally, I expect that in the next 4-6 weeks, the weekly MACD for Bitcoin will form a golden cross, and at that point, a new surge will begin. I personally believe that when the weekly MACD forms a golden cross, Bitcoin's price may be close to the 100,000 mark. With 100,000 as the starting point for a rise, I am very much looking forward to how high Bitcoin can reach in the next wave of weekly-level increases.

Today is March 10, 2025. After experiencing Trump's establishment of the U.S. government's Bitcoin strategic reserve, I would like to share my thoughts. Shortly after taking office in early February, Trump imposed tariffs on two neighbors, Canada and Mexico. Following that, the Nasdaq, Bitcoin, the dollar, and various global assets entered a continuous decline. According to my previous analysis, Bitcoin has merely become a leveraged tech stock of the Nasdaq. This has indeed been the case over the past half month. So rather than simply guessing Bitcoin's rise and fall by looking at the charts, why not speculate on what Trump intends to do? As the saying goes, a gentleman discusses actions, not intentions. Rather than speculating on what Trump wants to do, it’s better to first look at what he has already done. Imposing tariffs, having Musk form DOGE to cut jobs and reduce government spending, cutting subsidies for the poor, halting aid to Ukraine, and threatening Powell to lower interest rates quickly. Let me directly give my conclusion: the earlier actions are all paving the way for the last one, which is that Trump's goal is to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. The Federal Reserve is an independent institution, and the president cannot simply fire Powell. Last September, November, and December, during the three months of Democratic governance, interest rates were lowered three times. Did Trump not lower them upon taking office? Trump is a businessman and wants manufacturing to return to the U.S. and to have a trade surplus with other countries, which requires a depreciated dollar and a low-interest environment. Lowering interest rates is Trump's most urgent need. So what if Powell is stubborn and refuses to lower rates? Then a small recession is artificially created to force Powell to lower rates. Job cuts and reducing government spending, along with cutting subsidies for the poor, will quickly cool down the economy. Meanwhile, the tariff stick seems to be swinging continuously but has not really come down. In February, it was said to be postponed to March, and in March postponed to April. In fact, the tariff stick has not come down but has already played its role; the U.S. stock market is like a startled bird, continuously declining, seemingly on the verge of collapse. Historically, after the U.S. stock market declines for two consecutive months, the CPI will rapidly decrease. This is due to the illusion of stocks: when the stocks people hold keep rising, they mistakenly believe they are wealthy and tend to consume more. Conversely, when the stocks keep falling, people feel they are becoming poor and do not consume. Last week's non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures both fell short of expectations, which has already proven this point. I believe that U.S. inflation will rapidly decline from here, and Powell will emerge to say how well he controls inflation, then start to adopt dovish measures to save the market, and possibly lower rates for the first time this year in May or June. Bitcoin will first touch the bottom before rebounding ahead of the Nasdaq, and it will reach a peak by the end of this year or early next year.

Today is February 26, 2025. It has been exactly half a year since Bitcoin plummeted to 49,000 on August 5 last year, and the market has entered a state of extreme fear again. I recall that at that time, the market was filled with predictions that the Bitcoin bear market had arrived, and it would soon drop to 30,000, 20,000, or 15,000. We all know what happened next: Bitcoin took nearly three months to gradually emerge from fear and reached a new high. Will this time follow the same script? According to psychological analysis, human nature is a combination of rationality and emotion. But almost no one can be purely rational all the time. When Bitcoin approached a new high of 110,000, no one in the market was shouting that Bitcoin would drop 30% next month! Instead, the calls for Bitcoin to continue rising to 120,000 or 130,000 were the loudest. Should I say I am lucky or unlucky? Due to some real-world factors, I needed cash and converted a significant amount into fiat currency when Bitcoin was at 105,000, which fortuitously allowed me to avoid this decline to some extent. However, the portion I did not sell also experienced significant pullbacks like everyone else in the market. People give up greed due to fear and ignore fear due to greed, which is driven by our emotional side. Now, what I will discuss is the rational part, which is the knowledge that has allowed me to survive in this market for many years. Let's do some simple math. Let’s set aside our fear and greed and purely do some arithmetic to see the risk-reward ratio. Mathematically, we like to set an unknown variable X. Let’s assume that the market conditions for the next year will also be X, looking at the risk-reward ratio when X equals bull or when X equals bear. Let's first calculate the bear market since the current fear and greed index is 21, indicating extreme fear, and everyone is more concerned about the bear market. Since we assume the next year's market condition X is a bear market, let’s calculate what the bottom price of the bear market will be. Historically, Bitcoin entered bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022. In these three bear market years, the lowest price of Bitcoin came close to the shutdown price of Bitcoin mining machines. Taking the most recent example from 2022, the shutdown price in November 2022 was 16,000 USD, and Bitcoin reached a low of 15,500 USD due to the FTX bankruptcy black swan event. I personally bought Bitcoin at 16,800 USD and have held it until now. Therefore, the bottom price of the Bitcoin bear market is quite evident, which is the Bitcoin shutdown price. So what is the current Bitcoin shutdown price? It is 68,000 USD. This means that if X equals the bear market, Bitcoin could still fall by 20,000 USD from its current price. If we buy Bitcoin now, we would lose 22.7% of our principal at the bear market bottom price. Now, let's substitute X with the bull market. If we assume that the next year is still a bull market, how much will Bitcoin rise? This is indeed a difficult question since the top price in a bull market doesn’t have a reference point like the bottom price in a bear market does. It’s all guesswork. When Bitcoin just broke through 100,000, the market fervently shouted that Bitcoin would rise to 180,000 or even 200,000 by the end of the year. Let’s estimate conservatively. Assuming the next year is still a bull market, Bitcoin could rise to between 130,000 and 150,000. Thus, Bitcoin could rise by 48% to 70% from the current price of 88,000. Now, let’s calculate the risk-reward ratio. Those who do business or trade know that when the risk-reward ratio of a business or trade is greater than 1, it is profitable and worth trying. When the risk-reward ratio is greater than 2, there is no reason to miss out. When the ratio is greater than 3, missing out becomes a lifelong regret. Now let's calculate the risk-reward ratio: if the next year is a bear market, we will lose 22.7% of our principal, and if the next year is a bull market, we will earn 48% to 70% profit. Thus, from the current price of Bitcoin, the risk-reward ratio lies between 2.11 and 3.08. With such a large risk-reward ratio, rationally speaking, holding Bitcoin spot until the second half of this year is advisable. This is completely based on the premise of setting aside the weaknesses of human nature. Yesterday and the day before, I advised some fans to take profits and exit. Even though I believe Bitcoin will reach a new high by the end of the year, I still recommend taking profits and exiting because a significant portion of fans are not diamond hands in Bitcoin. A large position in altcoins or contracts may lead to liquidation. Although Bitcoin is only 22.7% away from the bottom, if you add a 5x contract, it could lead to liquidation. Altcoins are even scarier; if altcoins drop by 50%, they need a 100% increase to break even. If they drop by 80%, they need a 500% increase just to get back to break even. Take Trump Coin as an example: if you do not hold Bitcoin and bought Trump Coin at 60 USD, you would need a 400% increase to break even when Trump Coin drops to 12 USD. This is also the reason I have always considered Bitcoin as my fundamental asset. In this circle, only Bitcoin has a risk-reward ratio that is always ≥ 1 during extremely fearful moments. This year has just begun; I wish every Bitcoin holder can reach the shores of financial freedom.

Today is February 5, 2025. At the time of writing this article, the price of Bitcoin is $100,600. Even after experiencing significant negative factors such as Trump's tariffs, Bitcoin has still strongly rebounded after its decline. One fan privately messaged me, saying that when Bitcoin dropped to $92,000, he panicked and sold his Bitcoin. Now, he is watching Bitcoin rise back to $100,000 and wants to buy back in, feeling very pained and asking me what to do. I believe that fans who have been following me closely must have experienced similar situations. Therefore, I would like to offer a little insight for all those who are confused. There is a classic saying in the cryptocurrency world: A person needs three bull markets in their lifetime to become wealthy. The first round is paying tuition, the second round is gaining experience, and the third round is making big money. This saying may really be understood only by Bitcoin veterans like me. The moment everyone enters the cryptocurrency space, there is an illusion: I'm buying Bitcoin right now at a low point, and I’m going to make money! So they invest all their money. But is it really so? Is buying Bitcoin at $100,600 the lowest point after February 5, 2025? It might be, but the greater probability is that it is not. Can you really bear the market's decline when you enter this market? I think many people are not prepared to enter this market at all. Historically, Bitcoin has experienced countless surges and declines; can you really handle the emotional rollercoaster? I believe that those who have not experienced market cleansing cannot endure the emotional gap. If you sold Bitcoin on February 3 when it dropped to $94,000, although it briefly fell to $92,000 or even $91,000, if you didn't immediately buy back your Bitcoin, once Bitcoin exceeds $94,000 and you buy back, your Bitcoin quantity will decrease. Therefore, I give everyone a suggestion: if you are a spot Bitcoin investor, you should use Bitcoin as your unit of account, not fiat currency. For example, if you bought 0.01 BTC for $100,000, when Bitcoin drops to $90,000, you should think this way: I have not lost my Bitcoin; I still have 0.01 BTC. This way, you will not have a huge mental gap. On the contrary, I would feel very fortunate that I bought my Bitcoin with fiat money at a 10% discount, and after buying, my Bitcoin quantity increased. This mindset can help you go further in this restless world. There are many famous OGs in Bitcoin, among whom I particularly admire two people: one is Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy. The other is Nayib Bukele, the current president of El Salvador. These two individuals are destined to be recorded in the annals of Bitcoin history. They both bought Bitcoin in the last bull market, and during the bear market, countless people mocked them, but they remained unfazed and continued to buy Bitcoin. In the end, during this bull market, they became legendary figures, and those who mocked them turned into admirers. Some attribute their success to their use of the DCA strategy, which is consistent dollar-cost averaging. I believe that from an investment technique perspective, it is indeed a DCA strategy, but in reality, their success is also due to their mindset. In 2021, they bought Bitcoin at the original price of $60,000; when Bitcoin dropped to $18,000 in 2022, it was actually at a 70% discount. When Bitcoin rose back to $30,000 in 2023, it was like going from a 70% discount to a 50% discount. When Bitcoin rose back to $60,000 in 2024, there was no discount at all. Regardless of how Bitcoin fluctuates, will the quantity of Bitcoin they have already purchased change? No, so what does the rise and fall of that number matter? I hope this little mindset help can be beneficial to you who are reading this.

Today is January 27, 2025. Here, I wish everyone a Happy New Year in the Year of the Snake in advance. After experiencing the baptism of Trump Coin last week, it can be said that some are happy while others are worried. Some people have made a fortune by seizing the opportunity with Trump Coin, while others who bought high are stuck like dead fish, having to cut losses. If you are one of the latter, I suggest you take it slow; let me analyze it. Trump Coin, as a meme coin, has gone through the life cycle of other altcoins in just one week, that is, it surged high and then crashed. Other coins usually go through this process in months or even years, but Trump Coin completed it in a week. So, what happens after the crash? Let’s take a look at the popular Dogecoin from four years ago. On January 28 and 29, 2021, Dogecoin surged 1000% over two days, peaking at 0.00875, then fell for four days to 0.0031. Subsequently, on February 7, it surged again to 0.0085, forming a double top and began to pull back. After half a month of pullback, it was cut in half and remained flat for over two months until it rapidly surged and fell again on April 13. Now let’s look at the trend of Trump Coin: born on January 18, it surged 400 times in just 36 hours, peaking at 80 and then dropping to a low of 50. Within six hours, it surged again to 80, forming a double top, and then crashed directly without giving people time to think, plummeting from 76 to 28 in just 20 minutes from 5:10 PM to 5:30 PM on the 20th. Even experienced traders would be stuck now. It has been flat for a week at this price; have you noticed something interesting? The trend of Trump Coin is remarkably similar to that of Dogecoin, akin to a video acceleration. If it weren't for my experience from four years ago, I wouldn’t have noticed. So it becomes simple: the unlocking time for Trump Coin is three months later, and institutions in the US have already applied for a Trump Coin ETF. Trump is now akin to the emperor of the US; the House of Representatives, the Senate, the Supreme Court, the SEC, and the CFTC are all his people. I can't think of a reason why the Trump Coin ETF wouldn’t happen. So it’s very likely that in the next three months, Trump Coin will experience significant increases or even break its previous high. If you, like me, hold Trump Coin at an ultra-low cost, I advise you not to FOMO when you see my article; do not buy more Trump Coin, as this will not raise your average cost and won’t break your resolve. If you are stuck holding Trump Coin at a high position, I think you can lower your average cost, and when you break even, you can reduce your holdings at a high price, which will teach you a lesson on your trading journey. OK, let’s stop talking about Trump Coin and move on to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a classic Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) red envelope market, which refers to Bitcoin usually declining or consolidating before the Spring Festival, and then experiencing a significant increase in the week following New Year's Eve. What's amazing is that this pattern works every year! Even in bear markets, it’s a complete red envelope market. Therefore, those with spare cash can certainly engage in a seven-day short-term operation on New Year's Eve. Buy on New Year's Eve and sell on the eighth day of the new year; it’s a simple way to give yourself a little year-end bonus, isn’t it great? Of course, every year there are skeptics who think the Spring Festival red envelope market will become outdated. Let me explain how this Spring Festival red envelope market comes about. Before the Spring Festival, Asians often like to sell their cryptocurrencies for fiat money to prepare for the Lunar New Year, buying goods for the holiday, giving red envelopes, and other expenses that usually happen in the days leading up to New Year's Eve. Therefore, Bitcoin tends to consolidate or decline in the days leading up to New Year's Eve. After New Year's Eve, the money that needed to be spent has been spent, and people will invest their money back into cryptocurrencies, causing prices to rise again, especially accelerating from the third to the fourth day of the new year. This is also easy to explain: on the first and second days of the new year, people usually visit relatives and give red envelopes, which involves spending money. By the third and fourth days, relatives have left, and the red envelopes have been given out. At this time, funds will flow back into cryptocurrencies, leading to a certain surge in prices. This is the basic logic of the Spring Festival market. Another point I want to mention is the previously discussed knowledge point of expectation management. When the Federal Reserve shouts that market inflation is high, the public will perceive inflation as high, tolerate price increases, and companies will think, 'Since inflation is so high, I can raise prices too.' Eventually, everyone raises prices, leading to rising inflation. The Spring Festival market is similar; not everyone will cash out a lot of cryptocurrencies during the Spring Festival, but will not cash out a large amount during the Spring Festival not affect the market? Of course not, because with the expectation management of the Spring Festival price increase, people will prepare to buy on New Year's Eve and sell on the seventh day of the new year, making a certain short-term operation. Countless people have this mindset, and countless people do this, so the Spring Festival market will indeed happen. This is what is called expectation management. I don’t know if the skeptics who don’t believe in the Spring Festival market have a chance to see my article in time. If you do, I wish you a Happy New Year.

Today is January 14, 2025. A fan sent me a private message asking me what I think about the depreciation of the RMB and the sluggish stock market. I gave my opinion: There are two factors for the sluggish RMB. The unexpectedly strong US economy has led to the market's low expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut this year. The current 4% US dollar interest rate is still a high interest environment. The world's major economies, except Japan, are all cutting interest rates. The US dollar index has broken through 110, a two-year high. The US dollar is so strong that the RMB naturally appears weak. This is the first factor. The second factor is that Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on Dongda after taking office, which will make RMB products have no price advantage. If you want to keep the price advantage of RMB products, you must weaken the RMB. For example, before the tariff is not imposed, a product with a cost of 100 RMB is sold to the American people for 20 US dollars. At the exchange rate of 7.2, it costs 13.9 US dollars and sells for 20 US dollars, and each product still has a profit of 6.1 US dollars. If Trump sets a 60% tariff after taking office, the product will rise to 32 US dollars. The price of the product will not have an advantage and no one will buy it. This will have a very big impact on exports. What should I do? Lower exchange rates and lower profits. If the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar drops to 7.8, the cost of a commodity of 100 RMB is 12.82 US dollars, and then the price of the commodity drops to 14 US dollars. After taking into account the 60% tariff, the price is 22.4 US dollars. Compared with the American people, the price has only increased by 10%, and the commodity price is still competitive. At the same time, for merchants, although the profit of a commodity has dropped from 43.9% to 8.7%, at least there is no loss, and there is still profit. If the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continues to fall, the profit of commodity exports can be higher. On the contrary, if the exchange rate does not fall, export commodities will not make money at all. This is also the reason for the sluggish A-share market. The market is an expected market. When market makers and institutions believe that exports will be very poor and the economy will be very bad if Trump takes office, they will naturally sell stocks, and only retail investors can watch themselves being deeply trapped. Let's talk about the US stock market. The US stock market has been hit hard by the Los Angeles wildfires. The Nasdaq has now filled the CME futures gap, which was the gap that opened when Trump was elected in November. So I think it is a very good buying opportunity for the US stock market now. There are multiple factors: 1.Black swans like the Los Angeles wildfires don’t happen every day. 2. The big gap in CME was filled. 3. After three years of high interest rates, banks have long been unable to bear it. The Federal Reserve has always been a tough guy with a soft heart. 4. Trump is a businessman president. He is very happy to see macro-monetary easing. He put pressure on Powell in the last term, and Powell did it.

Today is January 10, 2025. Bitcoin has experienced a rollercoaster over the past three days, dropping from a high of 102,000 by 11,000 points to a low of 91,200, and now rebounding to around 95,000 as of the time of this post. Like most people, I have gone through a similar emotional ride. However, upon reflection, many invaluable experiences can be drawn from this. Here, I would like to share my views: To say that the hawkish data on Tuesday night caused the drop is somewhat far-fetched, after all, the data itself is not that important, especially considering the interest rate meeting before Christmas where Powell's hawkish remarks did not lead to such a three-day volume rebound. Therefore, the main reason for this drop is the fire in Los Angeles. There are a significant number of rich people in Los Angeles, and without cars in this city, it is almost impossible to move. I see that most citizens abandoned their cars after the traffic paralysis caused by the wildfire, almost having to leave with just their mobile phones and a few belongings. At such times, the rich, the middle class, and ordinary people are all insignificant in the face of nature's power. After struggling to survive and escape, new problems confront them: how to live on? Money is essential. Since they have survived, the next step is to sell everything that can be sold for cash, with cryptocurrency being the first choice. Stocks cannot be traded 24 hours a day, 365 days a year; yesterday trading was halted due to a day of mourning, whereas cryptocurrencies can be traded at any time. To survive, they quickly sold off their cryptocurrency, triggering a selling spree. The news from the end of last month that allowed the U.S. government to sell the confiscated bitcoins from Silk Road just broke yesterday. Undoubtedly, wealthy whales want to wipe out the cryptocurrency bulls and greedily consume bloody chips, and after the drop last night, the whales began preparing to slaughter the short-sellers. As of this post, Bitcoin has already seen 14 consecutive bullish candles on the hourly chart. Such a beautiful trend is something I have never seen before. Having discussed the negatives, let’s briefly talk about the long-term impact of this black swan event of the Los Angeles wildfire on Bitcoin. My judgment is that it is a tremendous positive. The fire came too quickly, and people's lives are paramount; there is no time to take care of their property. The cold wallets of wealthy people holding Bitcoin will disappear in this fire, permanently reducing the number of Bitcoins in the world and significantly increasing Bitcoin's scarcity. As people gradually become aware of this fact, Bitcoin will rise rapidly. At the same time, those wealthy individuals who sold their cryptocurrencies on exchanges to cash out for survival will realize that stocks cannot be sold 24 hours a day for cash, but cryptocurrencies can. Once these wealthy individuals emerge from the shadow of the fire and make a comeback, they will be even more inclined to favor cryptocurrencies as a flexible asset. Regarding my views on this year's bull market, I do not believe that 108,000 is the peak; the bull market is still ongoing. I can only say that the world is vast, and unexpected events can occur any day of the year. The bull market will soon be reignited with Trump's return to power.

Today is January 7, 2025. Since it is a bull market, my update frequency will also increase accordingly. Let me mention an interesting aside: from the beginning of 2024 until the publication of this article, I traveled 7 times. Among those trips, Bitcoin experienced a surge 6 times, not only during the travels but even when I simply went out shopping or having fun in the city, it also surged. Just this weekend, after two days of fun, Bitcoin has once again broken through $100,000. It's hard to say it's not Bitcoin reminding me to balance work and rest. That said, putting aside mystical theories, Bitcoin's surge today is a natural occurrence, as I estimated in my article published half a month ago that there would be a surge on January 7. Now reflecting on it, the drop at the end of 2024 was due to the hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve during the interest rate cuts, combined with the Christmas and New Year holidays, plus the annual leave of people in Europe and America. The holidays drained liquidity from the market, and as of the publication, it was just the first Monday of 2025 when the US stock market opened, and everyone welcomed the new year again, with funds flowing back into the stock and cryptocurrency markets. As of the publication, the Nasdaq has once again surpassed 20,000, the S&P has returned to 6,000, Bitcoin stands at $100,000, and NVIDIA has reached its previous high of 150, which can be said to be a new year with new atmosphere. Now, let's talk about Ethereum (ETH). This year, ETH is likely to complete the Prague upgrade in March. Prague is the name of a city, and every time Ethereum upgrades, it is named after a city, with notable ones being the Shanghai upgrade and the London upgrade. However, the name is not important; what matters is what content is upgraded. I believe the most important proposal in this ETH Prague upgrade is EIP-7251. Let me translate this upgrade content into plain language for everyone: simply put, originally, the maximum number of ETH that a single staking node could validate was 32 ETH. For large holders who have thousands or tens of thousands of ETH, staking is an extremely cumbersome task. If they want to stake all their ETH, they would have to set up hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of nodes. To be honest, wealthy individuals tend to be lazy, and many large holders are reluctant to stake because the staking rules are too strict, which has kept ETH from entering staking and thus has always been a potential selling pressure. The EIP-7251 proposal allows people to stake more than 32 ETH on a single staking node, with no upper limit on the amount. This way, large holders can stake a significant amount of ETH at once and enjoy interest, saving them from the cumbersome operations. It also facilitates large institutions in operating their own validation nodes, making the staking of ETH spot ETFs like those from BlackRock possible, which ordinary people may not understand the implications of. In fact, after this proposal is upgraded, the market will suddenly have more than half of the ETH circulation reduced, making ETH scarce. Reducing circulation means increasing value, and the $100,000 Bitcoin has already proven what ‘rarity brings value.’ So, in three months, ETH will also tell us what ‘rarity brings value’ through its price.

Today is January 3, 2025. Bitcoin's market share has fallen rapidly, from a peak of 60% to 55.69%. 4% of BTC funds have flowed into the altcoin market. The ETH/BTC trading pair has risen to 0.036 as of the time of writing. BTCDOM has reached a new low in nearly half a month. I know that most people who read this article hold altcoins, so they are very concerned about the altcoin market. I personally think that ETH will reach a height of $6,000 in the first quarter of 2025. I have been supporting ETH since the end of last year, and my opinion remains unchanged. In fact, Ethereum has performed very well in the first quarter in history, especially the first quarter of the year after the halving can reach a 70% increase. Ethereum will have the Prague upgrade in March, and I will personally clear most of my Ethereum positions at that time. Let's talk about Bitcoin. During the Christmas and New Year holidays, the US stock market was actually very weak. The Nasdaq fell 1,000 points from its peak, and the S&P 500 also fell 200 points from its peak. This is related to the fact that Europeans and Americans like to take vacations. Christmas weekend plus New Year's Day plus the annual leave can often string together an extra-long vacation, so the liquidity in the market is poor. However, with the end of New Year's Day, people on vacation have begun to return from vacation one after another. Now it's the weekend again. Starting from next Monday, I think liquidity will fully recover. The three major catalysts of this round of bull market are Bitcoin spot ETF, interest rate cuts, and Trump's favorable policies. Most of the first two favorable policies have been implemented, but Trump's policies after taking office are worth looking forward to. Before Trump takes office this month, I tend to think that the market will fluctuate upward. After Trump takes office until the New Year's Eve, I may wait and see with empty positions. As the saying goes, a new official takes office with three fires. Trump may release all the policies he has been holding back as soon as he takes office. At that time, the stock market, currency market, including the US dollar index, will all soar. On the contrary, if nothing is done, the good news will become bad news. I think I will avoid risks and close my long positions before Trump takes office, and then take back my long positions on New Year's Eve. My long positions are all in currency standard, so if Trump takes office and the favorable policies of taking office soar in the eight days from New Year's Eve, it will not be considered as missing out. I have been writing articles for a long time. If you have been reading my articles, you must have made a lot of money. I wish you who read this article in 2025 to achieve financial freedom as soon as possible.

Today is December 22, 2024. If the previous Bitcoin trend resembled a roller coaster, this week's trend can be described as bungee jumping. On the 17th, Bitcoin briefly reached a historical high of 108,000, but quickly began to plunge after Fed Chair Powell's extremely hawkish speech following the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. On Friday, it fell to a low of 92,200, then bounced back up, with a peak rebound close to the 100,000 mark during Saturday's low liquidity, before starting to retreat and oscillate between 97,000 and 98,000. To summarize Powell's remarks at the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting that had such a destructive impact: First, when the rate cut was first announced in September this year, Powell's dot plot indicated four rate cuts for next year, which greatly encouraged the market. Both Bitcoin and the four major US stock valuations repeatedly hit new highs. However, at this interest rate meeting, Powell unexpectedly displayed a dot plot showing only two rate cuts for next year, which is significant. Even if the US economy remains strong, the market generally believed that the dot plot would change from four rate cuts to three, but this time it was changed directly to two. Coupled with the fact that before Christmas, people generally prefer to convert assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies into cash for the holidays, the Nasdaq dropped sharply by 3.6%, and there were still no signs of rebound on Thursday. The Nasdaq's fear index was higher than the pre-market crash of US stocks on August 5 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, approaching extreme fear. As a result, when Friday's PCE data was released, Fed's Goolsbee came to comfort the market, stating that the dot plot showing two cuts does not mean we will only cut twice; we still need to look at the data, and now I think we need to cut several more times. There’s nothing that changes as quickly as the Fed’s stance. I think the Fed is also feeling apprehensive. After all, Friday was the last triple witching day of the year, and if they didn’t come out to comfort the market with a pre-Christmas stock market halt, Powell's last year as Fed Chair would be uncertain. Besides this, a reporter asked at the press conference whether the Fed would strategically hold Bitcoin. Powell firmly replied no, which is also an important reason for Bitcoin’s decline. After all, during the last news interview, Powell compared Bitcoin to gold, but this time he said they wouldn’t hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. From a conspiracy theory perspective, his answer led to a sharp drop in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. Trump's companies bought a large amount of ETH and AVAX, which cannot be ruled out as a possible way to give Trump and various institutions a bloody chip. Because, looking at the timeline, if Bitcoin and Ethereum are not accumulated now, there truly will be no time left, with only one month until Trump takes office. The market will start to speculate on this major positive news in advance, and if they do not clear leveraged long positions in time, they will not be able to obtain cheap chips. Regarding Bitcoin's market share, on the 20th, when Bitcoin dropped to 92,200, its market share briefly reached 60%. I personally believe this should be the last time Bitcoin's market share is above 60%. Historically, after Bitcoin's halving in December, it is a peak period for retail investors to enter the market. Those who have faith in Bitcoin or institutions will firmly choose Bitcoin, but retail investors without any faith in Bitcoin, who only come in to speculate, will shake their heads at a $100,000 Bitcoin. They are more likely to choose altcoins to try for a fortune. Although it is said that the altcoin season will not return, I believe that human greed will prevail, and the altcoin season will definitely start, led by ETH, which is currently undervalued, and then ETH will take a bunch of altcoins to start skyrocketing. As for Bitcoin, my view remains unchanged; December must close positively on the monthly chart. Therefore, in the last week, absolutely do not take a bearish view or fear a decline. The bull market marathon has persisted this long, just hold on a little longer; 2025 is about to arrive!

Today is December 12, 2024. It has been a week since Bitcoin first broke the $100,000 mark last week, and Bitcoin is still hovering around the $100,000 whole number. For those who hold Bitcoin as a spot asset and have not paid attention to it, it seems like nothing has happened this week. However, for short-term traders, this week has been like riding a high-speed roller coaster. On the evening of the 5th (North American time), a 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of California, triggering a tsunami warning. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to a low of $90,000 within 3 hours before quickly recovering. After the tsunami warning was lifted, Bitcoin returned to $100,000 within a day. Then, on the evening of the 9th, Israel launched airstrikes on Syria, causing a bloodbath in the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Bitcoin fell to a low of $94,000, while various altcoins dropped by about 20% to 30%. Following the curfew order from South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, the Korean won significantly depreciated against non-Korean currencies, leading many South Korean investors to quickly sell their investment assets for US dollars, euros, and other currencies to avoid political risk. These two factors resulted in a significant purge of futures leverage positions in the market, especially among long positions. At the shareholders' meeting held by Microsoft on the 10th, shareholders witnessed Bitcoin's roller coaster behavior and voted against considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Even though the second-largest shareholder, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy's CEO supported Bitcoin, they were unable to succeed. However, I observed that the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs since Monday has averaged as high as 4,000 Bitcoin per day. Therefore, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin has returned to the $100,000 mark, and the plummeting altcoins have returned to their prices before the crash. However, the open interest in contracts in the market has decreased by a full 7%. If we look solely at altcoins, the open interest has decreased by nearly 40%. This is a very positive phenomenon, indicating that the upcoming altcoin season has significantly lightened, providing a good environment for future rises. There are still 19 days left in this month, and by the 18th, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has reached 95%, with the market generally predicting a 25 basis point cut. After the Federal Reserve cut rates in September and November, Bitcoin saw significant rises. Therefore, I am optimistic about the overall trend of cryptocurrencies after the 18th. Many believe that Bitcoin has peaked at $100,000, but I believe that this year Bitcoin will end 2024 at an exaggerated price, with my personal estimate being between $110,000 and $124,000.

Today is November 21, 2024. Recently, every article about Bitcoin has reported a new high, with Bitcoin reaching a peak of $98,384 per coin, just a step away from six-digit figures in the hundreds of thousands. Who is still buying Bitcoin? Many fans have privately messaged me asking if Bitcoin can still be bought, and the number of people looking for a dip to buy has also increased. My view is that if you're asking me now whether you can buy, where were you earlier? In fact, Bitcoin was still hovering around $60,000 in October, and it's only been a month. Those who didn't buy in October are now eager to buy in November, simply out of fear after seeing Bitcoin rise to nearly $100,000 in just a month. What are you afraid of? Afraid of missing out on the wealth train that is Bitcoin, commonly referred to as FOMO (Fear of Missing Out). To get back on track, let’s talk about some macro information: MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has been invited to speak for three minutes at Microsoft's shareholder meeting to persuade shareholders to allow Microsoft to take out 1% of its massive cash reserves, which is $5 billion, to invest in Bitcoin. This could enhance shareholder value while combating inflation risks. Personally, I believe that on December 11, Microsoft's board will approve the $5 billion investment in BTC for the following reasons: Microsoft's second-largest shareholder is BlackRock, which owns a large amount of Microsoft stock and also has a Bitcoin spot ETF, IBIT. They could completely encourage Microsoft to take out $5 billion to buy their own IBIT, allowing them to earn custody fees while also enhancing shareholder value as Microsoft's second-largest shareholder. Meanwhile, Microsoft can diversify its assets to combat inflation and stabilize its assets, which can be seen as a win-win situation. The founder of MicroStrategy also hinted on X platform that they will continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings. This will stimulate many cash-rich companies globally to rush to buy Bitcoin. For example, Apple has a massive amount of cash with no place to spend it; Bitcoin is a great destination. Additionally, BlackRock's IBIT options trading was approved yesterday, meaning that any institution wanting to buy call or put options must prioritize purchasing BlackRock’s IBIT to exercise the IBIT options rights. Consequently, there was a huge volume of buying for IBIT yesterday, which is definitely not something retail investors can achieve. The current situation is that the U.S. president wants to treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset reserve, major companies want to hold Bitcoin as a corporate asset reserve, and major institutions want to use Bitcoin ETFs as a tool for exercising options. Everyone is eager to own Bitcoin, while only retail investors are exclaiming: Oh my, $100,000 Bitcoin, it's too expensive!

Today is November 16, 2024. I am egg Chunyu. The bull market is indeed here, and more and more people are sending me private messages to urge me to update. In my article 4 days ago, Bitcoin successfully broke through 90,000 and reached a high of 93,000, then fell back to a low of around 86,668. Is the bull market over? Impossible. As of the time of writing this article, the price of Bitcoin is around the integer level of 90,000 US dollars. Most of the people who see this article, whether you are an old fan who has been following me for a long time or a passerby who accidentally sees it, I believe that you are experiencing the bull market for the first time. Let us cut the boat to find the sword: In 2020, BTC soared all the way after the election until November 25th, and then began to fall back and consolidate. It consolidated until December 16th before breaking through the previous high and continuing to soar. Now it is familiar, soaring and falling after the election, and experiencing a consolidation period. So rest assured, Bitcoin will not stop at 93,000. When the long and short sides exchange their chips fully near the integer position of 90,000, Bitcoin will break through the resistance and continue to move towards the six-digit mark of 100,000 US dollars. This round of bull market has the help of spot ETFs, and the consolidation period may not take three weeks. Now we just need to wait patiently and continue to enjoy the rise of Bitcoin. Let me tell you something interesting. Although I am firmly optimistic about the rise of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter, the market does not seem to think so. As of the time of posting Coinglass data, the long-short ratio of Bitcoin in all exchanges in 24 hours is roughly 49:51, and it is even 39%:61% in Bitfinex! The ratio of long and short funds of Bitcoin in 24 hours is also 1.6 billion US dollars to 1.65 billion US dollars, with a long-short ratio of 0.986, while the long-short ratio of large accounts is 1.21. Listing so many data shows that retail investors are not convinced and think that 93,000 is the top, and they are frantically establishing short-term short orders, while large investors are holding long-term long orders. Even the short orders of large investors, I reasonably believe, are just short-selling hedging by large investors who own spot stocks, that is, they make money when the price of Bitcoin rises, and they make money by shorting Bitcoin when it falls. After talking about these, let's talk about the macroeconomic situation. Fed Powell made a very hawkish speech under the pressure of Trump's dismissal, which can be regarded as a strong response to Trump's threat of firing. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in December is as low as 50%. I think this is purely because there are too many frightened birds in the market. You should still remember what happened in September. The Fed was very hawkish in September, that is, it was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. On September 7, Bitcoin even frightened the market and fell to a low of 52,400. Then what was the result?The 50BP rate cut was beyond people's expectations. Let's talk about the news in the cryptocurrency circle: Protos reported that oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have been continuously purchasing Bitcoin at the sovereign level. There are rumors that it will be revealed at the Bitcoin Conference on December 9-10. Unlike the Middle Eastern oilmen who are traditionally imagined to be ignorant of the world, the oilmen are actually quite avant-garde and radical in their thinking. Dubai has almost all global cryptocurrency exchanges that have set up fixed offices. There will be blockchain-related exhibitions or activities every now and then. The UAE is even the host of the next Bitcoin Conference. It is not surprising that there are such rumors. The oilmen's oil price increase is far less than Bitcoin. From a long-term perspective, exchanging oil for Bitcoin is a very smart choice. The Middle East sovereign fund is conservatively worth two trillion US dollars. Even if only 200 billion US dollars is allocated to Bitcoin, it is a very scary number. I personally look forward to the Bitcoin Developer Conference on December 9-10. The entry of global countries led by Trump may lead to the high point of this round of Bitcoin bull market higher than my estimated $150,000. Finally, let me talk about when the copycat season will arrive, which most people are concerned about. I believe that the copycat season will start within 50 days after Trump’s victory, that is, on or before December 27. There is no need to ask how I came to the conclusion. The answer is to try to find a sword by carving a mark on a boat.

Today is November 6, 2024, I am Egg Chunyu. As I predicted in my last article, Trump has a high winning rate on the Polymarket website; polls can be misleading, but betting sites do not lie. Trump has indeed become the 47th president. As of the time I am writing this article, the Republican Party has secured 50 seats in the Senate, becoming the majority party, while the Democratic Party holds 126 seats and the Republican Party holds 171 seats in the House of Representatives, not far from the majority of 218 seats. This presidential election may even see Trump winning the presidency and both houses! The internal dynamics of the Republican Party have changed drastically since 2016; eight years ago, the party was not a unified front. Now, the Republican Party can be said to have truly transformed into Trump's party—those who oppose Trump will be ousted. What does this mean? Most proposals will pass smoothly after Trump takes office. Next, let's discuss the impact of Trump taking office.