Today is December 12, 2024. It has been a week since Bitcoin first broke the $100,000 mark last week, and Bitcoin is still hovering around the $100,000 whole number. For those who hold Bitcoin as a spot asset and have not paid attention to it, it seems like nothing has happened this week. However, for short-term traders, this week has been like riding a high-speed roller coaster. On the evening of the 5th (North American time), a 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of California, triggering a tsunami warning. Bitcoin briefly plummeted to a low of $90,000 within 3 hours before quickly recovering. After the tsunami warning was lifted, Bitcoin returned to $100,000 within a day. Then, on the evening of the 9th, Israel launched airstrikes on Syria, causing a bloodbath in the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Bitcoin fell to a low of $94,000, while various altcoins dropped by about 20% to 30%. Following the curfew order from South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, the Korean won significantly depreciated against non-Korean currencies, leading many South Korean investors to quickly sell their investment assets for US dollars, euros, and other currencies to avoid political risk. These two factors resulted in a significant purge of futures leverage positions in the market, especially among long positions. At the shareholders' meeting held by Microsoft on the 10th, shareholders witnessed Bitcoin's roller coaster behavior and voted against considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset. Even though the second-largest shareholder, BlackRock, and MicroStrategy's CEO supported Bitcoin, they were unable to succeed. However, I observed that the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs since Monday has averaged as high as 4,000 Bitcoin per day. Therefore, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin has returned to the $100,000 mark, and the plummeting altcoins have returned to their prices before the crash. However, the open interest in contracts in the market has decreased by a full 7%. If we look solely at altcoins, the open interest has decreased by nearly 40%. This is a very positive phenomenon, indicating that the upcoming altcoin season has significantly lightened, providing a good environment for future rises. There are still 19 days left in this month, and by the 18th, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has reached 95%, with the market generally predicting a 25 basis point cut. After the Federal Reserve cut rates in September and November, Bitcoin saw significant rises. Therefore, I am optimistic about the overall trend of cryptocurrencies after the 18th. Many believe that Bitcoin has peaked at $100,000, but I believe that this year Bitcoin will end 2024 at an exaggerated price, with my personal estimate being between $110,000 and $124,000.