Today is January 27, 2025. Here, I wish everyone a Happy New Year in the Year of the Snake in advance. After experiencing the baptism of Trump Coin last week, it can be said that some are happy while others are worried. Some people have made a fortune by seizing the opportunity with Trump Coin, while others who bought high are stuck like dead fish, having to cut losses. If you are one of the latter, I suggest you take it slow; let me analyze it. Trump Coin, as a meme coin, has gone through the life cycle of other altcoins in just one week, that is, it surged high and then crashed. Other coins usually go through this process in months or even years, but Trump Coin completed it in a week. So, what happens after the crash? Let’s take a look at the popular Dogecoin from four years ago. On January 28 and 29, 2021, Dogecoin surged 1000% over two days, peaking at 0.00875, then fell for four days to 0.0031. Subsequently, on February 7, it surged again to 0.0085, forming a double top and began to pull back. After half a month of pullback, it was cut in half and remained flat for over two months until it rapidly surged and fell again on April 13. Now let’s look at the trend of Trump Coin: born on January 18, it surged 400 times in just 36 hours, peaking at 80 and then dropping to a low of 50. Within six hours, it surged again to 80, forming a double top, and then crashed directly without giving people time to think, plummeting from 76 to 28 in just 20 minutes from 5:10 PM to 5:30 PM on the 20th. Even experienced traders would be stuck now. It has been flat for a week at this price; have you noticed something interesting? The trend of Trump Coin is remarkably similar to that of Dogecoin, akin to a video acceleration. If it weren't for my experience from four years ago, I wouldn’t have noticed. So it becomes simple: the unlocking time for Trump Coin is three months later, and institutions in the US have already applied for a Trump Coin ETF. Trump is now akin to the emperor of the US; the House of Representatives, the Senate, the Supreme Court, the SEC, and the CFTC are all his people. I can't think of a reason why the Trump Coin ETF wouldn’t happen. So it’s very likely that in the next three months, Trump Coin will experience significant increases or even break its previous high. If you, like me, hold Trump Coin at an ultra-low cost, I advise you not to FOMO when you see my article; do not buy more Trump Coin, as this will not raise your average cost and won’t break your resolve. If you are stuck holding Trump Coin at a high position, I think you can lower your average cost, and when you break even, you can reduce your holdings at a high price, which will teach you a lesson on your trading journey. OK, let’s stop talking about Trump Coin and move on to Bitcoin. Bitcoin has a classic Spring Festival (Chinese New Year) red envelope market, which refers to Bitcoin usually declining or consolidating before the Spring Festival, and then experiencing a significant increase in the week following New Year's Eve. What's amazing is that this pattern works every year! Even in bear markets, it’s a complete red envelope market. Therefore, those with spare cash can certainly engage in a seven-day short-term operation on New Year's Eve. Buy on New Year's Eve and sell on the eighth day of the new year; it’s a simple way to give yourself a little year-end bonus, isn’t it great? Of course, every year there are skeptics who think the Spring Festival red envelope market will become outdated. Let me explain how this Spring Festival red envelope market comes about. Before the Spring Festival, Asians often like to sell their cryptocurrencies for fiat money to prepare for the Lunar New Year, buying goods for the holiday, giving red envelopes, and other expenses that usually happen in the days leading up to New Year's Eve. Therefore, Bitcoin tends to consolidate or decline in the days leading up to New Year's Eve. After New Year's Eve, the money that needed to be spent has been spent, and people will invest their money back into cryptocurrencies, causing prices to rise again, especially accelerating from the third to the fourth day of the new year. This is also easy to explain: on the first and second days of the new year, people usually visit relatives and give red envelopes, which involves spending money. By the third and fourth days, relatives have left, and the red envelopes have been given out. At this time, funds will flow back into cryptocurrencies, leading to a certain surge in prices. This is the basic logic of the Spring Festival market. Another point I want to mention is the previously discussed knowledge point of expectation management. When the Federal Reserve shouts that market inflation is high, the public will perceive inflation as high, tolerate price increases, and companies will think, 'Since inflation is so high, I can raise prices too.' Eventually, everyone raises prices, leading to rising inflation. The Spring Festival market is similar; not everyone will cash out a lot of cryptocurrencies during the Spring Festival, but will not cash out a large amount during the Spring Festival not affect the market? Of course not, because with the expectation management of the Spring Festival price increase, people will prepare to buy on New Year's Eve and sell on the seventh day of the new year, making a certain short-term operation. Countless people have this mindset, and countless people do this, so the Spring Festival market will indeed happen. This is what is called expectation management. I don’t know if the skeptics who don’t believe in the Spring Festival market have a chance to see my article in time. If you do, I wish you a Happy New Year.