Today is November 16, 2024. I am egg Chunyu. The bull market is indeed here, and more and more people are sending me private messages to urge me to update. In my article 4 days ago, Bitcoin successfully broke through 90,000 and reached a high of 93,000, then fell back to a low of around 86,668. Is the bull market over? Impossible. As of the time of writing this article, the price of Bitcoin is around the integer level of 90,000 US dollars. Most of the people who see this article, whether you are an old fan who has been following me for a long time or a passerby who accidentally sees it, I believe that you are experiencing the bull market for the first time. Let us cut the boat to find the sword: In 2020, BTC soared all the way after the election until November 25th, and then began to fall back and consolidate. It consolidated until December 16th before breaking through the previous high and continuing to soar. Now it is familiar, soaring and falling after the election, and experiencing a consolidation period. So rest assured, Bitcoin will not stop at 93,000. When the long and short sides exchange their chips fully near the integer position of 90,000, Bitcoin will break through the resistance and continue to move towards the six-digit mark of 100,000 US dollars. This round of bull market has the help of spot ETFs, and the consolidation period may not take three weeks. Now we just need to wait patiently and continue to enjoy the rise of Bitcoin. Let me tell you something interesting. Although I am firmly optimistic about the rise of Bitcoin in the fourth quarter, the market does not seem to think so. As of the time of posting Coinglass data, the long-short ratio of Bitcoin in all exchanges in 24 hours is roughly 49:51, and it is even 39%:61% in Bitfinex! The ratio of long and short funds of Bitcoin in 24 hours is also 1.6 billion US dollars to 1.65 billion US dollars, with a long-short ratio of 0.986, while the long-short ratio of large accounts is 1.21. Listing so many data shows that retail investors are not convinced and think that 93,000 is the top, and they are frantically establishing short-term short orders, while large investors are holding long-term long orders. Even the short orders of large investors, I reasonably believe, are just short-selling hedging by large investors who own spot stocks, that is, they make money when the price of Bitcoin rises, and they make money by shorting Bitcoin when it falls. After talking about these, let's talk about the macroeconomic situation. Fed Powell made a very hawkish speech under the pressure of Trump's dismissal, which can be regarded as a strong response to Trump's threat of firing. The probability of a 25BP rate cut in December is as low as 50%. I think this is purely because there are too many frightened birds in the market. You should still remember what happened in September. The Fed was very hawkish in September, that is, it was not in a hurry to cut interest rates. On September 7, Bitcoin even frightened the market and fell to a low of 52,400. Then what was the result?The 50BP rate cut was beyond people's expectations. Let's talk about the news in the cryptocurrency circle: Protos reported that oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have been continuously purchasing Bitcoin at the sovereign level. There are rumors that it will be revealed at the Bitcoin Conference on December 9-10. Unlike the Middle Eastern oilmen who are traditionally imagined to be ignorant of the world, the oilmen are actually quite avant-garde and radical in their thinking. Dubai has almost all global cryptocurrency exchanges that have set up fixed offices. There will be blockchain-related exhibitions or activities every now and then. The UAE is even the host of the next Bitcoin Conference. It is not surprising that there are such rumors. The oilmen's oil price increase is far less than Bitcoin. From a long-term perspective, exchanging oil for Bitcoin is a very smart choice. The Middle East sovereign fund is conservatively worth two trillion US dollars. Even if only 200 billion US dollars is allocated to Bitcoin, it is a very scary number. I personally look forward to the Bitcoin Developer Conference on December 9-10. The entry of global countries led by Trump may lead to the high point of this round of Bitcoin bull market higher than my estimated $150,000. Finally, let me talk about when the copycat season will arrive, which most people are concerned about. I believe that the copycat season will start within 50 days after Trump’s victory, that is, on or before December 27. There is no need to ask how I came to the conclusion. The answer is to try to find a sword by carving a mark on a boat.