师爷陈

Advisor discusses hot topics:

First, let’s talk about the question that many friends ask the most: How do we view the current market? In one sentence: It seems to be a choppy upward movement, but in reality, it’s playing dead and crawling. Bitcoin is indeed slowly inching up, but short-term bulls and bears are still alternating back and forth.

You might think this market is being supported by institutions, but in fact, they are trying to keep you from making reckless moves. Additionally, some people say Bitcoin has entered an eternal bull market; if you believe that, you deserve to be harvested.

That wave of crazy bull market before December 18 last year is still fresh in memory; can this little rebound in altcoins be called a bull? At most, it's a weekly twitch, and it hasn't even escaped the stage of catching its breath after a fall.

Master discusses hot topics:

The weekend's market has left many people feeling like they are hallucinating, as Bitcoin continues to play dead. The liquidity of short-term contracts is slowly building up, but the problem is that no new clearing zones have emerged; it feels lifeless, are the main players just waiting for us retail investors to fall asleep first?

Let’s get to the conclusion; it’s Monday, how do we see the market now? It’s 50-50 between long and short, don’t argue with yourself. Above is 108K, below is 102K. If the market doesn’t move, I won’t move either, but I can already smell something stirring.

This week may be destined to be boring in order to hold back a big move; it might just come next week or the week after. Who can withstand it, who can endure is the first step. The market wants to exhaust you, tire you, and break you down before rewarding you.

Shi Ye discusses hot topics:

Yesterday I went out for a joyride; I had too much fun outdoors and simply gave up on updating the market. As a result, when I opened my eyes today, Bitcoin directly plunged by 7%. The reason isn’t complicated; the winds picked up in the Middle East, directly messing with market sentiment.

Investors are beginning to reassess risks; safety margins and inflation paths are all being recalculated. As a result, beautiful stocks fell together, and Bitcoin also dropped, while gold and oil rose sharply, with gold increasing by 4% in one go.

Who has been saying for a long time that Bitcoin is supposedly the digital gold? Why is it that when gold and oil are rising, you are the first to go down? Furthermore, there’s no need to delve deeply into Israel and Iran here; after all, I'm not a military channel blogger.

Advisor discusses hot topics:

To be honest, the market is indeed becoming more cunning, with various positive factors and micro-strategies emerging every day to support buying. Every time Bitcoin tries to take a break, the micro-strategy acts like a shot of adrenaline and immediately bounces back.

To put it bluntly, this trend is a typical strong bullish structure. Without major negative news, the position at 100K is really not something you can just break.

Although the increase was small yesterday, our low long strategy steadily hit the first target. A solid gain. So we need to continue this approach in the short term: buy when it pulls back to support, don't hesitate.

Market Analyst Discusses Hot Topics:

This wave of market movement has truly left people confused; are you as baffled as I am? Just yesterday noon, I was thinking about shorting, and by evening, I was directly slapped in the face by a breakthrough.

Right now, this position is stuck like a stubborn homeowner, with prices rushing into the high liquidation area that should theoretically trigger a wave of short squeezes, but it hasn't! It's just lying there, dangling and annoying you. If you want to short, you're afraid of a pullback; if you want to go long, you're afraid of a drop.

If during the day we could have a decent pullback, like accelerating to around 106K as a starting point, or a high-level consolidation, then wait for good news to come out, and it won't be a big deal to surge to 114k. To put it plainly, if the market provides an opportunity, it would be a chance to enter on a medium-term basis.

Advisor Discusses Hot Topics:

Brothers, this week, let's not rush to criticize each other's long and short positions; first, let's see the CPI and PPI on Wednesday and Thursday. If the forecast is higher than the previous value, it means inflation is not going down, and don't expect interest rate cuts too soon; market sentiment might take a direct hit. Those holding positions should pay attention to avoid being liquidated on the spot.

Returning directly to the market, the weekend's rebound finally reached a critical position—the 4-hour middle track and the left supply zone—but it was clearly struggling, failing to break the previous high.

This means don’t be too optimistic about longs; we are back in the oscillation range of 100K~107K, and currently at a high, the short-term is biased towards bearish. The rebound above 103K comes with a decline in spot premiums, indicating that the bears have exited while contract bulls are holding on.

Master Advisor discusses hot topics:

The previous market was like one person controlling the trading; now it has upgraded to a duet. One is Musk and the other is Trump, one plays the good cop and the other the bad cop, both throwing verbal jabs at each other, which gets you excited. But in the end? Tesla falls, US stocks fall, and Bitcoin follows suit.

But in the end, these two have their interests tied together; tearing each other apart isn't realistic. The show is for you, but behind the scenes, they've already divided the benefits. Musk is using verbal warfare to play psychological games, forcing Trump to compromise. To put it plainly, the troublemakers are emotions, and the ones making money are capital.

However, to be fair, this recent drop in Bitcoin was indeed a bit fierce, but I see people in the market again shouting 'It's collapsing!' Isn't that a bit too fragile? When it rose 30,000 points, you kept quiet, and now a 5,000-point drop has you panicking? You really don't deserve to be in this market!

Advisor discusses hot topics:

Today, it's still necessary to complain about the market of the past few days; it's simply a situation even dogs wouldn't want to touch. Liquidity is virtually nonexistent, and the price fluctuation range is ridiculously small. Is the liquidation zone locking the market down? Or did the market die first, leading to this terrible situation?

I'll give you the conclusion first; from my personal perspective, the market in the next couple of days looks like this: if it goes up, it might peak at 108K; if it goes down, crashing to 101K is not a problem.

From the perspective of liquidation intensity, the downward pressure is obviously stronger. The problem is that the price is still stubbornly holding above 103.6K from June 2; you say it's consolidating, yet it truly remains unmoved.

Hot topics of Master Chat:

Last night, the US stock market soared, and the Nasdaq and S&P were both hitting key resistances, and it seemed that the bull market was about to begin. But looking at the big cake, it plunged after the closing, and the fall was so sharp that it did not give the US stock market any face. This divergence is awkward no matter how you look at it. What is the problem?

The master thinks that the first possibility is that the U.S. stock market is still absolutely attractive at present, with tariffs being eased and liquidity being limited, and all funds are heading there. To put it bluntly, there is only so much money in the market, and if the U.S. stock market is going to turn around, the cryptocurrency market will naturally lose its popularity and funds.

Advisor discusses hot topics:

First, let's talk about the rebound of Bitcoin from midnight to 9 AM. To be honest, it doesn't really seem like the bulls suddenly became aggressive; rather, it looks like the bears jumped into the pit themselves. The funding rate not only didn't drop but slightly rebounded, indicating that there aren't many new shorts willing to go all-in in the market.

The trend of Bitcoin in these days shows that each small rebound is slightly higher than the previous peak; when the bears chase, they get slapped in the face, and the main force relies on this indecisive rhythm to gradually pressure floating short positions to the rooftop. However, this structure is also the most frustrating.

Looking again at 103k, it was originally considered a support zone, but now liquidity has completed, turning it into a full-fledged bull liquidity base. In layman's terms, as soon as the price drops, there are bulls waiting to step in below. Plenty of volume ensures that the main forces can clear out positions.

Master discusses hot topics:

This week has been incredibly good for the crypto market, with good news coming continuously every day. However, Bitcoin still looks very weak because it hasn't fully reflected that in its price.

On Tuesday, the group of 'Chuanzi's Dad' boldly dropped 2.5 billion dollars into crypto, and by Wednesday, 401k retirement funds could buy BTC. On Thursday, tariffs were suddenly 'canceled,' which essentially means monetary easing.

The problem is this series of good news is like firing rockets, but Bitcoin didn't even make a sound. Up? Up my foot. Why? It's already peaked, bro, what rose first is meant to be smashed.

$BTC $ETH Discussion on hot topics:

This morning, the U.S. International Trade Court directly overturned Trump's tariff strategy. In plain words, the federal government finally couldn't take it anymore. This small power was not gained, but it made the market feel like it was suffering from schizophrenia.

Unfortunately, the market is currently too lazy to pay attention to this issue. The impact of tariffs has become severely marginalized; both good and bad news can hardly stir up any waves. The market is at most consolidating with slight fluctuations.

So what should we look at next? Let's return to the main theme. Bitcoin is pushing up, and Ethereum is also showing some rebound momentum, but a bunch of altcoins are still stuck at the bottom, barely moving.

Discussion on hot topics:

Last night, the stock market took off, and the media group suddenly put up 2.5 billion to stock up on Bitcoin. Logically, this wave should directly push Bitcoin to a new ATH, and ETH should break through the high points from two weeks ago.

So what’s the result? Bitcoin hasn't even reached a new high, and ETH is just greeting us while reminiscing about the levels from two weeks ago. So the question arises, why hasn't the market sentiment surged alongside the capital influx?

In fact, during this period, the market has considered a pullback many times. However, the selling pressure has been completely wiped out by waves of buying, and now, after this consolidation period, choosing a direction is a problem.

The advisor discusses hot topics:

Today, let’s first talk about the recent market hot topic James, who is indeed marketing like crazy. A couple of days ago, he was just $100 away from liquidation. He holds 5782 Bitcoins at an average price of 110084, with a liquidation price of 107320, totaling a market value of 620 million. He is currently facing a floating loss of nearly ten million dollars.

These days, whether he is directing traffic for himself, creating hype for HYPE, or promoting his own project, the excitement is at its peak, and the goal has been achieved. The advisor guesses that at this time, someone must be wondering if they can follow his order.

You are confused; you should know that ordinary small investors can't play at all. You can't go long like him, nor touch his shorts, and don't be naive enough to think you can profit by being on the opposite side of him.

Market trends discussed:

It’s been three days since the last update, and Trump is once again stirring the market with his words. So today I’ll share my views on the current market. The current situation can no longer be called logic; it’s a complete chaos of emotions, rhetoric, and erratic trading rhythms.

Let’s get straight to the point today. Currently, Bitcoin has surged from 74K and is now in a climax phase. Look at the price nearby; liquidity is extremely thin both above and below, making it difficult to move up or down.

The question is, what kind of trend will follow? First, it will be a consolidation, then form a converging triangle pattern to stir up the sentiment before making any decisive moves.

The master discusses hot topics:

Last night, I didn’t wait for Bitcoin to break the historical high, and then today when I woke up, I saw it broke through the psychological barrier of 110k. Logically, I should be happy, right? But you and I both know that in this market, retail investors have no sense of participation anymore. What’s rising is the K-line of big players; retail investors only deserve to be the background, even clapping seems excessive.

The market has been moving too fast every afternoon these days, and there were two days without articles, so let’s summarize. Last night, Bitcoin surged to 109845, then as a routine homage to tradition, it experienced a break, a rapid drop, and the usual pattern, hitting a low of 106k, washing out a wave of people.

Expert discusses hot topics:

I didn't update yesterday's 5.19; for those in the crypto circle, there's no need to elaborate too much. Bitcoin experienced four rollercoaster rides in 24 hours, peaking at 107K and dipping to 102K, back and forth four times, leaving many leveraged traders in despair.

And it's not just Bitcoin that is going crazy; even U.S. stocks are participating. Moody's downgraded the U.S. rating, causing a panic sell-off. But this wave of panic is just a childish play; the market has not been subdued at all.

U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all rose last night, what does that indicate? The market's sensitivity to uncertainty is still online; regardless of ratings, money is still looking to flow to safer places.

Master discusses hot topics:

With this week's CPI from the U.S. and last night's PPI and retail data making a strong push, I've seen overseas media saying the economy is stable, inflation is mild, and rate cuts are imminent.

Don't be fooled, the lagging effect of tariffs has not fully manifested, and the so-called experts in the market haven't mentioned it at all. Not to mention the potential stagflation risk brought by the decline in service industry data, no one will say anything about it. Are these old wall lamps just to stabilize market sentiment, so retail investors obediently hold on?

But when you come back to the market and find that the trend is clearly not buying, and we are still far from actual interest rate cuts, the upward movement lacks a story. Horizontal consolidation and waiting for a decline might be the more reliable approach. Once the main force finds the stop-loss position, then jumping in on the rate cut trend will reach its peak.

Master talks about hot topics:

Continuing from what the Master said yesterday, the current 106.6k level can still be poked. But don't think it will keep surging; the long-term direction still lacks clear signals.

Because once the price rises above 106.6k, it is very likely to spike and then retract; if the upward momentum runs out, it will pull back and continue to oscillate. Here’s the conclusion: if you have short positions that are underwater, don’t rush to cut them; give Bitcoin a chance for a small new high and a false breakout.

If it really stands firm, the accumulation of long leverage will accelerate, providing an opportunity to break even. But if it’s a false breakout, it’s simply trying to cut you off, so be clear about the situation. If your long position is underwater, don't stubbornly hold on; if a new high is attempted but lacks fuel, don’t be greedy; take your profits first and then observe.

Master discusses hot topics:

The promised CPI drop was supposed to boost the probability of a July rate cut? In the end, the macro big shots were all serious and still not buying it, with the interest rate swap market directly giving a 35.9% chance. It's really frustrating, how can I dare to believe you?

Inflation was hit by tariffs, prices are rising, but the rebound has inertia. This transmission process is unstoppable; if the next data doesn’t throw out hard evidence, a July rate cut is out of the question!

If we still can't wait for a rate cut, then we have to pinch our fingers with the interest rates, and the earliest we can breathe easy is in September. Back to that old routine of two rate cuts, who hasn’t experienced it?