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#美联储降息预期 The advisor discusses hot topics:

It's Monday, so I'll start with the macro highlights. The PPI on September 10th and CPI on the 11th are the two most important data points before the Americans cut interest rates. With employment in such poor shape, the market is hoping for a softer inflation data to justify a reduction of 50 or even 75 basis points within the year.

But if the CPI continues to be high, it will ignite a stagflation farce, and the market will immediately collapse psychologically. And over the past few days, Trump has been acting like a madman, constantly attacking Powell, shouting that interest rates are too high, which basically means he wants to force the Federal Reserve to back down. The real confrontation will be at the interest rate meeting on the 18th of this month, where Trump and Powell will face off for the first time.

#非农就业数据来袭 Trend discussion by the expert:

Last night when the job vacancy data came out, it left people stunned, as it was the first time since the pandemic that there were fewer vacancies than unemployed individuals. The U.S. is now in a tough job-hunting situation, which basically indicates that the economy is about to have problems. Once the labor market tilts, the economy will be hanging by a thread.

Logically, such data should be bearish, but surprisingly, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin still rose last night. Why? Because the expectations for an interest rate cut are rising rapidly, and the probability of a rate cut in September has soared to 95%, almost a done deal.

This recent rise in the market is, to put it bluntly, a funeral turned festive. Don’t be fooled by the smiles on everyone’s faces; behind the scenes, they all know that the interest cuts are happening because the economy is nearly collapsing.

#非农就业数据来袭 Master discusses hot topics:

Continuing from yesterday's analysis, the unemployment rate and non-farm employment data at 20:30 on Friday night. In simple terms, this data serves as a signpost for whether the Fed will soften its stance on interest rates in September. If the employment data is too good, the rate cut expectations will be directly discounted.

The market looks confused, the data is terrible, and there are concerns that the economy might not hold up. There might even be stagflation, which is still bearish. It sounds like a deadlock; yes, the key is not the data itself, but how the damn market interprets it.

Because the market is the operator; it can pump when it wants and dump when it wants. After the announcement, it's the weekend, and the US stock market is closed, so the real market reaction will only manifest next Monday.

#非农就业数据来袭 Last night, the US stock market was closed, and nothing changed in the market. It's still the same as those two days over the weekend, just with slightly larger fluctuations, especially during the Asian session.
The US stock futures from CME have limited opening hours, but after a slight dip, all three major index futures have come back up. What does that indicate? It indicates that these guys have calmed down over the weekend, and after shaking off their nerves, they're ready to step back into the arena.
This week’s main event, as I mentioned yesterday, is the labor data, with Friday's non-farm payroll being the core focus; Wednesday and Thursday are just warm-ups. Don't be blinded by those who say the data might not be optimistic; the key is how the market interprets it and whether we'll see another wave of those wild moves like when Old Powell spoke.

#加密市场回调 Master discusses hot topics:

Today is Monday, and the US stock market is closed tonight; CME is also on holiday. The ETF stuff is paused as well, so liquidity will be relatively low. This week's labor data starts on Wednesday with job vacancies, Thursday with the ADP non-farm payrolls, and Friday with the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate; these are the core messages of the market.

So from this Wednesday, the entire market sentiment will tighten, and before the Friday data release, no one will dare to open large positions recklessly. The key in September is still the interest rate meeting; is a rate cut a foregone conclusion?

Don't think too beautifully; the probability is not 100%. The folks at Chuanzi are desperately trying to push people into the Federal Reserve, and the centrists are still struggling with whether to lower interest rates; it depends on their mood.

#ETH走势分析 Consultant discusses hot topics:

First, let’s talk about Cook’s temporary motion which is happening today; the old guy must be in a state of panic. Why? Because the September interest rate meeting is just around the corner, and if he really doesn't see a rate cut, his expression will definitely be worse than anyone else's.

In simpler terms, this old guy is determined to place more of his people within the Federal Reserve to hold the chips in his hands. The problem is, old Powell is still in the chair and hasn't stepped down, and this struggle between him and the Federal Reserve cannot be won in the short term.

The market understands this point; don't expect the old guy to turn things around before he steps down. Even if he wants to gamble, it has to be postponed until after May next year. For him, this is simply torture.

#比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊 Discussing hot topics:

Continuing from yesterday, when NVIDIA's earnings report came out, the surface data looked good, but the sequential growth rate for data centers slowed down, leading the market to speculate whether we have reached the peak of growth.

Speaking of strong stocks, compared to last week's sudden drops, this week's trend has been relatively smooth; the S&P and Nasdaq have almost fully recovered Monday's losses.

Despite everyone talking about interest rate cuts and economic recession in September, the real money sentiment displayed in the market is actually much steadier than last week. Bitcoin is also slowly recovering alongside the US stock market; it's impossible not to correlate.

#特朗普罢免美联储理事库克 Advisor discusses hot topics:

Let’s talk about last night’s beautiful stocks; a signal was already given yesterday with a slight rebound during the session. Although it hasn’t completely recovered the previous day’s losses, market sentiment is clearly much more stable than last week.

As for the interest rate cuts and the economy mentioned last Monday, at least we can catch our breath now. Powell is now directly targeting Fed Governor Cook, fully aware that the presidential order cannot affect him, but this is outright pressure.

In simple terms, either you obediently support the interest rate cuts, or be prepared for me to trouble you. This urgency from Powell likely stems from a fear that there won’t be an interest rate cut in September, so he wants to force the Fed's hand through this method.

#ETH创历史新高 Hot topics with the master:

Let's review last Friday; as soon as Powell opened his mouth, the market immediately reacted, clearly leaning dovish, with the probability of a rate cut rising from 65% to 75%. However, to say that a rate cut is definite in September, I believe we still need to see the PCE for July, non-farm payrolls for August, and CPI for August.

The ideal scenario is that PCE doesn't explode, non-farm payrolls remain weak, and CPI is moderate, then a rate cut in September would be a done deal. However, the market sentiment in these past few days has been erratic, sometimes shouting that the bull market is about to end, and other times saying Ethereum has become a safe haven for funds.

As for Ethereum, it couldn't break through 5K, and Bitcoin almost broke 110K, with the shorts jumping out to yell about a bull tail market harvesting a wave. In plain terms, those shouting peaks are mostly just making noise; the ones who truly hit the mark are the panic buyers. Shouting bull or bear is worthless; the market only takes gold and silver seriously.

#杰克逊霍尔会议 Strategy discussion:

To be honest, the market right now is just randomly moving around, and many times it's just confusing. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the recent pullbacks have not accelerated at all, moving down slowly and frustratingly, which is the most annoying way to trade.

Without acceleration, there are no signals, making it sometimes dizzying. The reason is quite simple; the expectation of a rate cut in September has been tossed around repeatedly. A couple of days ago, the Fed Chair stated he didn't support a September rate cut, directly smashing market expectations.

The CME probability has dropped to 73.5%, and sentiment is gradually turning pessimistic. The small moves from the Fed currently seem useless. The market is all focused on tonight's Jackson Hole annual meeting because Powell is going to speak.