Master Chen 5.1: GDP inflation explosion, BTC double bottom pattern, be prepared for two scenarios for non-farm payroll
Master discusses hot topics:
Once last night's GDP and PCE data came out, it looked quite shocking at first glance. The first quarter GDP fell by 0.3% year-on-year, far below expectations, and PCE was outrageously high, clearly a scenario of recession + inflation! Logically, this data is scary enough, but the market only fell slightly.
The market isn't foolish; although the data looks weak, it's not at the point of confirming a recession, so it can't fall too much. In plain terms, the support below is still strong.
Moreover, Trump has been actively promoting negotiations recently. As long as the uncertainty regarding tariffs and policies doesn't completely explode, market sentiment won't be too bad.
Advisor Chen 4.30: Speculative funds entering? Understanding the expectations for the May Day market!
Advisor discusses hot topics:
The May Day holiday is here, and those large investors in the A-shares market might enter during the holiday. The main players may drive up stock prices following the trend, so as long as Bitcoin's key support level holds, there is still room for upward movement.
Additionally, tomorrow there will be an interest rate meeting in Japan. If the result shows no rate hike, Bitcoin is likely to surge immediately. And on May 5, the last day of the holiday, especially late at night, the main players will likely take advantage of everyone feeling sleepy to launch a surprise sell-off.
It is even possible that it will start as early as the evening of May 4, Sunday, to pave the way for the Federal Reserve meeting two days later. Generally, the market starts to fluctuate 1-2 days before a meeting, and once the US market opens on May 7, it is likely to show a drop.
Today, let's talk about a pretty impressive bill passed in Arizona, named SB373. In simple terms, it allows the state government to use no more than 10% of state finances and public funds from the retirement system to purchase Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.
However, the bill is currently with the governor, who has 5 working days to decide whether to sign or veto it. So whether SB373 will pass remains uncertain. If vetoed, the legislative body would need two-thirds of the votes to overturn it, which is not an easy task.
Next, we have the U.S. GDP data to be announced tomorrow. This will definitely cause fluctuations in the market. Recently, ETFs have been attracting money, and market sentiment has slightly warmed up. But don't be foolishly excited; Bitcoin's current price position is quite awkward, so we need to think calmly.
Master Chen 4.28: The three economic giants are coming, missed opportunities retaliate wildly, bottom fishing holds the line
Master discusses hot topics:
Let's first discuss this Wednesday: if the U.S. first-quarter GDP preliminary value comes in at the expected 0.4%, the market will probably be a bit anxious. This growth rate is quite disappointing, and it feels like the economy is hitting the brakes. If the U.S. economy cools down, Bitcoin will also be affected; after all, in a bad environment, investor sentiment tends to be weak.
Then there's the unemployment rate and non-farm data on Friday. If they show that the job market is really struggling, we will need to revisit Wednesday's GDP and PCE.
If these three voices sing the same tune of pessimism, the market may become more bearish. If the job market struggles, concerns about economic recession will grow, and Bitcoin may be dragged down in the short term, but looking long-term, risk aversion demand might push it up.
Master Chen 4.25: Is 95K the top or a new starting point? Two weeks of fluctuations to shake you off the bus.
Master discusses hot topics:
The market trend is indeed different from what everyone expected. Many previously thought that if the strong stocks fell, Bitcoin would not only hold up but also surge against the trend. However, last night, strong stocks rose by more than 2%, and Bitcoin not only did not rise but also fluctuated slightly.
Today is the last trading day of the week, and next week we will start to factor in GDP. The latest GDPNow data has also lowered the expected GDP for the first quarter in the U.S., which is a significant indicator for trading difficulties in May.
Recently, Bitcoin's performance has indeed been somewhat zen; although the price has seen minor pullbacks, investor sentiment remains quite stable with no significant ups and downs. The turnover rate has decreased, indicating that trading enthusiasm is not high.
$BTC $ETH Master Chen 4.24: Fantasy of getting rich overnight. The market is dedicated to dealing with disobedience. After the sideways trend, there will be shady moves! 观看原文
Advisor Chen on April 24: Fantasizing about overnight wealth, the market specializes in defeating disobedience, and after consolidation, it will definitely pull a trick!
Advisor talks about hot topics:
Speaking of which, after the recent tariff chaos caused by the Chuanzi, old Bao suddenly backed down and flooded the market, inexplicably pushing it up for two consecutive days. Trade wars, tariff tug-of-wars, I’m about to throw up!
Speaking of Bitcoin charging forward these days, Ethereum is just following along to pick up the crumbs. Retail investors complain every day that Ethereum is moving as slowly as a snail, but despite the complaints, it is still rising. After waiting 32 days, the Ethereum spot ETF finally showed some strength.
Increased holdings by more than 6000 in a single day; many people have waited so long their hair has turned white! But what’s the use? Ethereum wanting to break away from Bitcoin is just a pipe dream. The market liquidity is as bad as constipation; Ethereum can only be a follower of Bitcoin.
Advisor Chen 4.21: Tailing market double spike approaching, is it a fake out or a real breakout? Understand the signals!
Advisor discusses hot topics:
It's Monday, let's talk about this week's news timeline. On Tuesday evening at 21:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak. His words might reveal how the Federal Reserve plans to proceed next, which could have a significant impact.
On Wednesday, there will be a G20 meeting where global leaders will discuss the economy, and the market will surely react. On Thursday at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve's beige book will be released, which may also bring uncertainties and could cause significant fluctuations.
Speaking of spikes, we must mention the current tailing market. Both low buys and high shorts must have stop losses set. Retail investors are getting confused, and the main forces may take advantage of the information to fluctuate.
Master Chen April 18: Extreme Sideways Consolidation Sharpens the Knife; After the Convergence Triangle, the Next Move is a Poke
Master Talks Hot Topics:
Continuing from yesterday, I actually think Old Powell is quite objective and responsible; it's just that the market always wants him to be the savior. But why should he care about so much? He focuses on the economy and inflation, and he does it quite well.
I can only say that neither Zhuan Zi nor Old Powell is wrong; they just stand in different positions. Who knows? Maybe they are hiding in a villa drinking red wine and chatting.
Trump pounded the table and said: 'Powell, I'll be the bad guy!' Powell smiled and replied: 'Trump, how can I bear to let you take it all on alone?' We retail investors are too far from the source of information, foolishly arguing over who is right and wrong, while they might be laughing at us.
$BTC $BTC Master Chen 4.17: Wei Zi hard confrontation with Chuan Zi Fed's balance sheet reduction paused, is there still a chance for interest rate cuts? 观看原文
Advisor Chen 4.17: Weizi stands firm against Chuanzi. Fed pauses balance sheet reduction. Are rate cuts still possible?
Advisor's discussion on hot topics:
Speaking of which, Powell was really tough last night, directly stating: 'Don't expect us to step in to save the market!' He also emphasized that the Fed won't be led around by political pressure.
Doesn't this sound like openly challenging Chuanzi? Chuanzi is probably furious, and the advisor thinks he really should fire Powell and bring in someone more obedient. What good is it to keep such a person? Just causing trouble!
As soon as Powell opened his mouth last night, the market immediately wilted. Why? The advisor mentioned before that the core of the market's sharp decline is the strong policy uncertainty, combined with expectations constantly being dashed.
Master Chen 4.15: Revelation of the collapse of copycats. I am a coward. Has the signal of interest rate cut appeared?
Hot topics of Master Chat:
Yesterday, a friend of mine insisted on talking to me about OM. To be honest, I really don’t want to talk about altcoins this year. This thing has collapsed from $6 to $0.5. I have been in the coin industry for so many years, and I have seen a lot of ups and downs.
In fact, many copycat projects from last year to this year are bad enough, but the bankers of copycat projects like this are even worse. If you are an experienced investor, you should have seen many projects collapse.
I am a timid person. I will never touch projects and currencies that I don't understand the fundamentals and have no technical support. If you are trapped, just accept it. This is how the pie circle is. If you lose, you will accept the loss.