#非农就业数据来袭 Last night, the US stock market was closed, and nothing changed in the market. It's still the same as those two days over the weekend, just with slightly larger fluctuations, especially during the Asian session.
The US stock futures from CME have limited opening hours, but after a slight dip, all three major index futures have come back up. What does that indicate? It indicates that these guys have calmed down over the weekend, and after shaking off their nerves, they're ready to step back into the arena.
This week’s main event, as I mentioned yesterday, is the labor data, with Friday's non-farm payroll being the core focus; Wednesday and Thursday are just warm-ups. Don't be blinded by those who say the data might not be optimistic; the key is how the market interprets it and whether we'll see another wave of those wild moves like when Old Powell spoke.
A friend asked me if the big pie would repeat the awful market of 2022 next year. I said directly, the probability is low. The macro environment is still stuck in the rhythm of the end of 2019. At that time, the V-shaped reversal in March 2020 was due to masks, soaring unemployment, and recession.
So now? Unless we face a deep recession, there won't be any extreme crashes. The more likely scenario is that inflation gradually decreases while the economy can still hold up, and the trend of easing has just begun, meaning it hasn't even started yet.
Don't just shout about the big pie dropping from 160K to 120K as if it's not enough. Please, today's big pie is no longer the same as it was two years ago. The consensus is stronger, and the narrative is firmer; hitting 120K is just the beginning.
Compared to the market movement after the gold ETF was approved back then, we are still just warming up. Don’t forget, the current fiat currency is being printed wildly, and this is not the same world as 20 years ago. Back then, the economy was growing rapidly, and capital had somewhere to go; what about now? Capital is stuck in hands, where can it go?
Speaking of supply, there are only 21 million big pies, with less than 20 million actually in circulation. After accounting for long-term holds, there are pitifully few chips available in the market for trading. Just imagine, once the money rushes in, how can the price not soar? Stop daydreaming; the real market movement is yet to come.
Back to the market, the big pie is stubbornly not making any statements, just bouncing around the cost price of short-term holders. The spot premium has been supported at 108k, and the price has held at 108k twice; the pullbacks haven’t washed out the bullish liquidity below, indicating that the demand in the spot market is indeed increasing.
From a technical perspective, the big pie has formed a small-scale false bullish washout structure. Theoretically, it is enough for a rebound, but don’t forget about the liquidity gathering. The low point from the small-scale washout is almost the same as the low on July 5th; waiting for the low point is a liquidity magnet and will eventually be swept through.
Some people also ask about support levels; I'll summarize it in a few days. First, the overall direction is bearish, waiting for the short-term holders' cost price to show, and we will know this week. Second, if it breaks below, then there will be no chance for a swing long.
Thirdly, if it really drops, I'll be watching the range of 103~104k, 88.9k, or any lower point in a liquidity zone for a shakeout. Stop thinking about placing orders and waiting to catch the bottom; I never speculate on that.
The levels are just references; actual operations should consider the conditions once the position is reached: is there strong active buying, is the situation with passive orders improving? This is the real basis. Just looking at levels is useless. Remember, planning expectations are greater than predictions.
On the Ethereum side, after hitting a new high last night, it pulled back to the descending trend line, forming a long lower shadow on the 4-hour chart, which barely shows some resilience. But don’t rush to go long, because it has still made a new local low and hasn’t confirmed a trend reversal yet.
Unless it can rebound and break through the resistance at 4500, it has no qualification to look toward 4700+. Don't forget, a real reversal requires higher highs combined with higher lows; right now ETH hasn't broken its previous daily low, I lean towards it having a chance to test the previous high in early September, but after that, a more severe drop is likely.
