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Brother Ma Ji still won't give up, he has to continue being educated! #比特币波动性 #ETH

#BTC 88k is not the bottom, 75k is the price that the giant whale marked as the buying position

1. URPD (On-chain Cost Distribution)
53k–70k: Huge Position Cost Concentration Area → Strong Support
74k–90k: Almost no positions → Vacuum Area (No Support)
>90k: Large Locked Positions → Strong Resistance
Once the price falls into the 74k–90k vacuum area, it will quickly drop because there is no support from chips.
2. Hyperliquid Short Giant Whale Behavior
Multiple giants opened large short positions ($10k–$11.3k) (40 million–100 million level)
Floating profit +200% ~ +600%, and positions remain open, continuing to earn funding rates
This indicates that this is a planned structural short, not retail panic selling.
3. The giant whale has placed a buy order for 1450 BTC at $75k–$79.9k
Split into orders of 200, 350, 500 BTC, etc.
The position is exactly at the lower edge of the URPD vacuum area + upper edge of the support area
This is clearly marked as the 'buying range'
Currently, it seems that the 80k level is unlikely to hold, a spike to 75k with a rebound might be more reasonable #比特币波动性 #美股2026预测 #特朗普取消农产品关税

The fact is that #BTC really peaked at 126000, with a continuous decline and false rallies causing a large number of people to keep getting in. Now the minute line of Bitcoin has also played out a similar trend as the imitation coins. The market hasn't hit the bottom yet, be cautious about bottom-fishing, and continue watching the show! #比特币波动性 #加密市场回调

After a delay of 43 days, tonight's non-farm payroll has become the final key to whether interest rates will be cut in December. Over the past month, market expectations have undergone a dramatic turn — the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen from over 90% at the beginning of October to currently less than 30%.

Due to the cancellation of the October report and the postponement of the November report until after the FOMC meeting, the September data has become the only official employment report available for the Federal Reserve to reference before the December meeting. It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore this result in the absence of data support. If the September data shows weakness, the decision-makers are likely to infer that October has not improved either.

Currently, the market expects an increase of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The ideal situation is that the data does not deviate too far from expectations — too few jobs could raise concerns about a recession, while too many would further suppress the possibility of a rate cut. At the same time, it is best that the data for July and August does not undergo significant downward revisions; the currently fragile market needs stability the most.

Due to the reduction in immigration and the impact of AI replacement, the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment balance has decreased from 150,000 to 30,000-50,000. This means that even if the data shows only +40,000, which in the past may have signaled a recession, it could now be seen as the 'new normal.'

Given that expectations are already very low (only 50,000), a figure slightly higher than this (for example, 80,000) could be viewed as 'positive', but it cannot be so good as to extinguish hopes for a rate cut. Therefore, if the data falls between 50,000-70,000, the market might instead experience a rebound from the 'bad news has been fully priced in.'

To maintain market stability, ideal data would be 30,000-70,000 jobs and an unemployment rate below 4.4%. If the number of jobs is <20,000, it will first trigger panic about a recession, and the probability of a rate cut in December may rebound to 70%, with the market possibly falling before rising.

If >80,000, the probability of a rate cut in December will essentially drop to zero, and the market may face a 'final drop' #美股2026预测 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场回调 #BTC

Watching the trend of #BTC today, tonight's non-farm data is likely to be positive. This morning's rally has already digested the expectations of positive data tonight. However, the cancellation of the release of October's employment data has intensified the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. The positive data trend should first spike upwards, then drop down, and continue to oscillate downwards to retest 90000#鲍威尔发言 .

Some issues with the declining exchange have been exposed
This situation should still be an internal company issue
It should be impossible not to pay salaries
Even the worst exchange cannot avoid making profits
Choosing a stable and compliant exchange is very important
With the backing of the world's largest exchange, you can trade with confidence @Yi He #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调

Why is market panic the real buying point?

Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $90,000, and the market is full of despair. The theory of 'the end of the bull market' has resurfaced, but historical data shows that the peak of the market occurs 18-24 months after each halving. Currently, the cycle is not yet halfway, and the true top is characterized by widespread enthusiasm. However, the current market exhibits typical bottom features: extreme fear and a widespread crash, which mirrors the script of major corrections during past bull markets. So is this time really different?

The core driving force supporting the future market remains solid: institutional investors increasing positions through ETFs is just the beginning, and larger pension funds and other long-term capital have not yet fully entered the market. The regulatory dividends and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle are expected to be concentrated in 2026; new narratives such as AI and RWA are quietly taking shape. As long as we avoid a global hard landing and major black swan events, the foundation of the bull market has not been destroyed.

Therefore, the bull market has not ended; it has merely entered a new phase characterized by a slow bull for Bitcoin, sector rotations, and extreme differentiation among altcoins. The cruelest truth is that most people give up before dawn. What is being tested now is not prediction but who can hold on until the real surge comes next year. #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调 #BTC

Brother Maji's series of retaliatory multiple orders really left me dumbfounded!\nNo matter how much he invests or how many orders he places, the result is always a harsh liquidation by the market. This month has been a repeated live performance of 'liquidation records'.\nI sincerely advise everyone, do not imitate his life-threatening operations! Especially for ordinary people like us who don't have much capital, we simply can't afford it.\nIn the face of a merciless market, who isn't a rookie?\nThe only difference is—Brother Maji has endless money to burn, while you might be completely out after just three bets. #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

#BTC The drop below 90,000 may make the future path clearer!

Bitcoin has just dropped below the 90,000 mark, with a nearly 30% pullback from its historical high. The market is in an uproar, but I actually think this cold splash of water is just right, and it may be a good thing.

1️⃣ Active "detox" is necessary to lighten the load
Since the U.S. election last year, BTC has skyrocketed from 50,000 to 126,000, driven by obvious speculative frenzy and leverage accumulation. When the market is overheated, it needs a cooling remedy. This drop below 90,000 is essentially a forced "market detox," which can eliminate bubbles and liquidate high leverage, freeing up space for healthy future increases.

2️⃣ Squats are for jumping higher
There is no market that only rises without falling; every deep correction tests the market's true capacity to bear pressure. Only by experiencing sufficient turnover and building a base at relatively low levels can a solid support platform be formed. This current "squat" is precisely to accumulate core strength for future challenges of 200,000 or even 500,000.

3️⃣ Opportunities are always born in panic
For institutional funds that have been waiting to enter, continuous surges make it difficult to find comfortable entry points, while significant pullbacks provide an excellent window for building positions. When the hesitant speculators are washed out, true long-term investors will step in, further promoting the institutionalization of Bitcoin and bringing more stable foundations to the market.

The underlying narrative of Bitcoin has not changed, and the trend towards institutionalization is deepening. If this pullback can effectively clear leverage, it will make the bull market foundation healthier. Caution is needed; if the macro environment deteriorates (such as the U.S. economy falling into recession and liquidity continuing to tighten), market confidence may be difficult to restore in the short term, and further declines to find support cannot be ruled out, even testing the possibility of 80,000 or even 75,000. #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调

Brother Ma Chi has already opened multiple positions in ETH, it feels like a form of redemption! #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调

Observing the market #BTC indeed filled the gap at the position of 92000, should the market rise now? However, this kind of gap is not necessarily required to be filled; at least what is visible is that my money has already shown a gap! #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调 #山寨币市场回暖

#BTC Is there still a chance to return to 60,000?

Recently, I've been hearing a lot about the saying, "It has already bottomed out, and any movement is upwards," but the market has indeed not provided much room for imagination. I just checked, and it seems there are signs of stabilizing in the short term. So what comes next? Is it time to consider shorting the rebound?

Chasing highs and cutting losses isn't really a weakness; it's human nature. Those who understand the technology rely on analysis, while those who don't rely on feelings. FOMO emotions often come with high risks, while panic moments often hide opportunities because the market is always counterintuitive.

Currently, it has dropped below 90,000 once. According to many voices in the market, it is basically confirmed that we are in a bear market. If it continues to be bearish, considering that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly institutionalized and resembling US stocks, the past scenarios of dropping 80% may not repeat. If we estimate a 50% drop, the lowest point could be around 63,000 USD— which isn't far from the current low.

However, you have to remember that it took just over three months to go from over 60,000 to 100,000. My advice is not to leverage during a bear market; many people might really not be able to handle it. Spot trading might just be a roller coaster, but once you get liquidated in leverage trading, it’s truly gone. #美股2026预测 #加密市场回调

Liquidity Exhaustion and Risk Preference Shift: Macroeconomic Validation of BTC Bear Market Signals

Emotionally, like many others, I hope BTC can reach a new historical high again. However, returning to rationality, no matter how firm one's belief, short-term traders should start considering defensive strategies and respect the objective market trends.
Even if we truly enter a bear market, BTC still has the potential for a rebound—this is determined by its fundamental nature as a high-risk asset and is not subject to personal will. This rebound may occur next week (for example, following a death cross triggering a mean reversion), or it may appear at the end of this month.
From a macro perspective, we can validate and speculate from the following angles:
Leverage liquidation is not the main cause; risk preference may have already shifted.
In the past week, BTC has fallen by nearly 10%, but the total amount of leverage liquidation was less than 1 billion dollars. Typically, a similar decline should trigger liquidations of over 3 billion dollars. Therefore, we have reason to suspect that this round of decline is not dominated by leverage liquidation but is more likely a change in macro funding risk preference.

Liquidity tightening continues, amplifying price disadvantages.
From the perspective of liquidity, especially at the bank and institutional level, there has not been a significant improvement this month. This chain reaction means that BTC, already facing tight liquidity, is further under pressure from capital outflows, leading to an amplification of disadvantages after losing the critical position of 100,000 dollars, making it difficult to reverse quickly.

In recent weeks, the widening of credit spreads at the macro level and the simultaneous tightening of institutional liquidity may be the direct reasons for the sell-off of high-beta assets, including BTC. This is reflected in the loss of key price ranges and the turning bearish of technical indicators.

I believe that before the end of this month, it will still be difficult to see fundamental changes in this macro environment; the bearish trend has not been reversed. However, considering BTC's asset characteristics and market sentiment, a technical rebound may still occur. Therefore, short-term traders should prioritize defensive strategies at this stage, control positions, and reduce leverage, ensuring survival first before considering profit-making.
In an increasingly uncertain market environment, retaining strength and waiting for clearer right-side signals may be a more rational choice. #加密市场回调 #特朗普取消农产品关税

#BTC
Bitcoin has broken below 93000, creating a new low in the market within half a year. The four-hour chart shows a long lower shadow, and the hourly chart is gradually rebounding. Currently, 95000 is an important level for both bulls and bears, so whether it can hold above 95000 during the day is crucial. However, in the short term, I believe the market's downward trend has come to an end, with the main focus for today being on repairing and rebounding. In the first phase of the rebound, pay attention to whether the pressure at 96500 can be successfully broken. Short-term operations should mainly focus on buying low.
Support Level: 93000 Pressure Level: 96500


#ETH
Ethereum's price has touched a low around 3001, and the market seems to have gone through a tough time. The four-hour rebound shows a quick recovery, and the hourly chart currently has strong rebound demand. In the short term, the market continues to look for a rebound, with a key focus on breaking the pressure level of 3255 during the day. It is recommended to focus on buying low.
Support Level: 3050 Pressure Level: 3255

Market Analysis
Due to the uncertainty of interest rate cuts and macroeconomic factors continuously affecting market confidence, the current situation of market liquidity tightening is quite evident. The entire market is facing a significant directional choice, and mainstream coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered a week-long adjustment phase. Currently, market sentiment is extremely fearful; however, I noticed that many people are not panicking, and it seems that many, like me, have become numb. Based on the current situation, this position is basically at the bottom. However, many indicators in this bull market have become ineffective, and it is not advisable to go all-in at the moment. However, you can start to build up a small position gradually, with a focus on #BNB and the privacy coin sector. #特朗普取消农产品关税 #加密市场回调

I think the Ethereum community really should award Big Brother Ma Ji. From the high position of Ethereum all the way down, he is an Ethereum believer. However, I do not recommend everyone to learn from Big Brother's operations. The result of having no bottom line in holding positions is also very tragic, which is constantly adding to positions and ultimately leading to liquidation. #加密市场回调 #美国结束政府停摆