After a delay of 43 days, tonight's non-farm payroll has become the final key to whether interest rates will be cut in December. Over the past month, market expectations have undergone a dramatic turn — the probability of a rate cut in December has fallen from over 90% at the beginning of October to currently less than 30%.

Due to the cancellation of the October report and the postponement of the November report until after the FOMC meeting, the September data has become the only official employment report available for the Federal Reserve to reference before the December meeting. It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to ignore this result in the absence of data support. If the September data shows weakness, the decision-makers are likely to infer that October has not improved either.

Currently, the market expects an increase of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The ideal situation is that the data does not deviate too far from expectations — too few jobs could raise concerns about a recession, while too many would further suppress the possibility of a rate cut. At the same time, it is best that the data for July and August does not undergo significant downward revisions; the currently fragile market needs stability the most.

Due to the reduction in immigration and the impact of AI replacement, the number of new jobs needed to maintain employment balance has decreased from 150,000 to 30,000-50,000. This means that even if the data shows only +40,000, which in the past may have signaled a recession, it could now be seen as the 'new normal.'

Given that expectations are already very low (only 50,000), a figure slightly higher than this (for example, 80,000) could be viewed as 'positive', but it cannot be so good as to extinguish hopes for a rate cut. Therefore, if the data falls between 50,000-70,000, the market might instead experience a rebound from the 'bad news has been fully priced in.'

To maintain market stability, ideal data would be 30,000-70,000 jobs and an unemployment rate below 4.4%. If the number of jobs is <20,000, it will first trigger panic about a recession, and the probability of a rate cut in December may rebound to 70%, with the market possibly falling before rising.

If >80,000, the probability of a rate cut in December will essentially drop to zero, and the market may face a 'final drop' #美股2026预测 #美联储重启降息步伐 #加密市场回调 #BTC