币圈一言

The cryptocurrency industry has always been a dark forest, requiring vigilance not only against on-chain security threats but also against the real-world legal sword. Young and inexperienced individuals, in particular, often have a vague understanding of the criminal risks associated with activities like issuing tokens, over-the-counter (OTC) trading, and manipulating liquidity pools.
To enhance risk prevention awareness, Odaily Planet Daily has sorted out typical domestic currency-related judicial cases in recent years and analyzed key legal risk points (Note: This article is for legal reference only and does not constitute legal advice. Specific terms are subject to official interpretations.)
Charge 1: Reselling foreign exchange constitutes illegal business operation, involving over 200 million yuan

Trading cryptocurrencies is a game that foolish people cannot play, those who are too lazy to think cannot play, those with unhealthy psychology cannot play, and adventurers who seek to get rich overnight cannot play.
In the world of financial markets, successful trading relies not only on knowledge and skills but also on how to face uncertainty, manage risks, and accumulate experience and opportunities through long-term trial and error.
In the book (Antifragile), Taleb presents a profound view: The world is full of uncertainties, and those who can benefit from them are often the winners in the market. For any trader, these principles are not only guidelines for investment but also important rules for how to cope with market fluctuations and protect account safety.

After sharing the article (Web3 practitioners' relocation and local life in Japan) last time, although it was repeatedly stated that many colleagues who come to live and work in Japan do not engage in the Japanese market, many friends still want to understand the specific situation of Japanese users and the industry.
Especially later, it was found that the research and information regarding the Japanese Web3 market in the Chinese-speaking community is relatively lagging, so I decided to update a research overview of the Japanese market.
This article includes multiple contents, cited from the Japan Cryptocurrency Asset Association, the Financial Services Agency of Japan, compliant exchanges, and other data and information, for research and reference only.

Typically, a qualified trader must possess both fundamental and technical analysis skills. However, fundamental analysis only addresses what to buy, such as BTC, ETH, or XRP, which is a selection of the underlying asset. As for when to buy and when to sell, this exceeds the scope of fundamental analysis and requires technical analysis to resolve.
Thus, the core of cryptocurrency technical analysis is to learn how to read charts. How to read charts? What technical analysis indicators are there? How should one analyze them? We will answer these questions one by one.
What is cryptocurrency technical analysis?

As RWA tokenization and institutional adoption become the core narrative of this bull market, Chainlink, as the key infrastructure connecting traditional finance and the digital world, is poised to become the biggest winner. Miles Deutscher points out that Chainlink is not just a project; its value capture mechanism forms a powerful 'flywheel effect' — the growth of network usage will directly translate into sustained buying pressure and value accumulation for $LINK tokens.
It is noteworthy that Chainlink recently launched the '$LINK Reserve' mechanism, allowing the market to witness the real driving force of the 'flywheel effect'. This mechanism automatically converts and accumulates revenue from corporate collaborations and on-chain services into $LINK tokens, thereby directly linking the network's fundamental growth to the value of the token. Since the announcement, the price of $LINK tokens has risen by nearly 50%.

When I wrote this article, the biggest short-term uncertainty in cryptocurrencies was the direction of interest rates. The key points are: first, Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole meeting (Thursday, August 22), and second, how the Federal Reserve determines interest rates at the FOMC meeting on September 16-17.
If dovish signals are released → 2-year treasury yields and the dollar index fall → Bitcoin / Ethereum rises.
If there is a hawkish rate cut or high rates are maintained for longer → risk assets will be sold off, and altcoins will drop first.
This is the conclusion from the ChatGPT 5 thinking model and Deepseek's Deepthink model. Many people on platform X share the same view, which also explains the recent decline in altcoins.

On March 30, during a town hall meeting hosted by him in Green Bay, Wisconsin, Elon Musk made a clear distinction between the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and the Dogecoin cryptocurrency.
He said: 'As far as I know, the government has no plans to use Dogecoin or any other currency. While their names are similar, our goal is to improve government efficiency by 15%.'
Musk further explained that the name's origin was related to suggestions from the internet. 'I originally wanted to name it the Government Efficiency Committee, but that felt too boring,' he said. 'Later, the internet suggested naming it the Department of Government Efficiency, and I thought that was right.'

DeFi, DeFAI, and DeSci are currently the three strongest narratives in the crypto space. Not continuously tracking their mental shares, price trends, KOL opinions, and catalysts is akin to wasting a huge profit opportunity in a volatile market.
I will outline these narratives one by one in the following structure:
Mental Share: Used to find the most followed projects
Market Sentiment: Everyone is optimistic about the projects
Smart Followers: Understand what top accounts are following
Top Performers: Identify the projects that have moved the fastest in the past 7 days and the past 24 hours within this narrative
Mental Share / FDV: Explore the relationship between attention and valuation

Despite Bitcoin reaching a new historical peak of $124,400, its capital inflow continues to decline. This period of relatively weak capital inflow highlights a significant decrease in investor demand willingness at this stage.
As Bitcoin's price reached its historical peak, the total open interest of mainstream altcoins also hit a historical high of $60 billion, underscoring the high level of market leverage. However, this situation was short-lived, as the price retraced downwards, reducing open interest by $2.6 billion, marking the tenth largest drop on record.
Ethereum is often viewed as a bellwether asset, with its strong performance periods typically correlating with the broader 'altcoin season' in the digital asset market. Notably, Ethereum's open interest dominance has reached the fourth highest level on record, while its perpetual futures trading volume dominance has soared to a new all-time high of 67%.

Accelerated institutional adoption of Bitcoin: US 401(k) investment channels open, ETFs and corporate entities continue large-scale accumulation.
The best environment since 2021: global liquidity is at historical highs, and major countries are in a rate-cutting mode.
Transitioning from a retail-dominated to an institution-dominated market: despite overheating signals, institutional buying strongly supports downside risks.

Global liquidity expansion, institutional accumulation, and regulatory tailwinds drive Bitcoin adoption.
Currently, there are three core drivers pushing the Bitcoin market: 1) an ever-expanding global liquidity, 2) accelerated institutional capital inflows, and 3) a crypto-friendly regulatory environment. These three factors are simultaneously at play, creating the strongest upward momentum since the 2021 bull market. Bitcoin is up about 80% year-on-year. In the near to medium term, factors that could disrupt this upward momentum are limited.

On August 13, ETH strongly broke through $4,700, reaching a four-year high, while SOL seemed to struggle during the same period, lingering around $200. In 2024, Pump.fun ignited a meme frenzy across the entire Solana chain, and early in the year, Trump launched $TRUMP on it, causing SOL's price to surge to around $300, leading to a clamor for 'Solana to replace ETH.'

However, the actual market trend provided a calm response. Although ETH and SOL are both advancing treasury strategies in an attempt to accumulate 'bullets' for their ecosystems, their performances have diverged significantly— the SOL/ETH exchange rate plummeted from 0.09 at the beginning of the year to 0.042, with a weak pattern persisting throughout the year. The underlying reasons may reflect not only price volatility but also a comprehensive manifestation of differences in narrative heat, ecological structure, and capital expectations.

Recently, the ETH price has approached historical highs, with strong upward momentum and institutional funds accelerating their influx.
In this context, multiple Ethereum ecosystem tokens are frequently announcing good news. In this article, we select 12 Alpha tokens to interpret their latest developments and bullish reasons.
$BMNR Under the leadership of Tom Lee, the U.S. publicly listed company BitMine Immersion (NYSE: BMNR) has hoarded 1.2 million ETH, worth $5.03 billion, becoming the largest holder of ETH globally. Additionally, the company plans to continue buying ETH, aiming to acquire 5% of the global ETH supply and intends to stake its holdings for yield. Therefore, BMNR is undoubtedly a strong vehicle for betting on Ethereum.

Looking for new altcoins in May? You're not alone. As the market heats up again, some coins are standing out. Whether you're after long-term value or short-term gains, timing is crucial.
Therefore, we have compiled three outstanding altcoins currently being focused on by cryptocurrency experts.
From intelligent AI projects to blue-chip giants, to rapid trading strategies, these coins all have real potential. Let us analyze and see what values are worth further study.
1. TARS AI (TAI)

After experiencing a dismal decline, TARS AI has finally welcomed a turning point. Its market cap fell from $312 million to only $17 million. However, in the past month, it has rebounded to around $50 million, with an increase of up to 114%.

In mid-August, ETH strongly broke through $4,700, reaching a four-year high, while SOL mostly fluctuated between $180–$200 during the same period, far behind the price performance of BTC and ETH. Reflecting on the Meme frenzy sparked by Solana on platforms like Pump.fun in 2024, it was once seen as the terminator of ETH. On January 19, 2025, SOL refreshed its historical high to around $293, then retreated, consolidated, and fluctuated in sentiment, forming a divergence with ETH's 'strengthening trend.' Behind the surface lies a systemic difference in funding entry, value anchoring, and network narrative. So what is the reason behind this? Can the Solana ecosystem create glory again, and can the SOL token take off once more?

I was fortunate to meet an elder who started with ten thousand and grew to a billion in wealth. He told me what it feels like to have an epiphany in trading cryptocurrencies; now I understand that feeling too. The greatest benefactor in life is not finding money or winning the lottery, but meeting someone who breaks your original way of thinking, elevating your perspective, and guiding you to a better stage. Life is the same; cognition determines wealth, and underlying logic determines the superstructure!
Before enlightenment, it is as difficult as climbing to the sky; after enlightenment, it is as easy as turning a hand. Many stock market experts realize after understanding that trading cryptocurrencies is simple, while many retail investors believe that the experts making money in cryptocurrencies have done so through countless hours of learning and numerous losses.

It was one day, four years ago, that changed my destiny! Since then, I have regained everything I lost!
1. Timing: Enter the market only when conditions are right for rolling positions.
2. Opening Position: Follow the signals from technical analysis and find the right timing to enter.
3. Increase Position: If the market moves in your direction, gradually increase your position.
4. Reducing Position: When you have achieved the predetermined profit, or the market seems a bit off, gradually sell.
5. Closing Position: When you reach your target price or the market is clearly about to change, sell everything.
Earn money and then add more: If your investment rises, you can consider adding more, but the premise is that the cost has already decreased, and the risk is low. Not every time you make money should you add more; rather, it should be at the right moment, such as at breakthrough points in trends, and if it breaks through, quickly reduce your position, or add during pullbacks.

If your capital is within 500,000 and you want to achieve quick success in the cryptocurrency market through short-term trading, please read this post carefully. After reading, you will have a profound understanding of the essence of short-term trading!
I am 34 years old this year, have been in the market for 10 years, and have been trading cryptocurrencies for a living for 6 years!
Not choosing a financial major in college is a significant regret in my life. Starting from my freshman year, I began to learn about stocks, finance, foreign exchange, etc., online. The red and green screens filled my life with color and fascinated me. With unlimited anticipation for the market, I opened an account in my sophomore year, gradually learning about the cryptocurrency sector and Bitcoin through an introduction from a classmate. I became increasingly interested and began my investment career.

Many people watching the market tend to latch onto one point and not let go. Some focus only on technicals, some only look at sentiment, and others fixate solely on the so-called 'cyclical time points'. Theoretically, this is not wrong; the second year after Bitcoin's halving is often the end of the bull market. But if this is taken as the sole criterion for judgment, the conclusion can easily go astray.
Let's first rewind to 2021. The reason that bull market was so smooth, apart from the halving cycle, was the macro environment. The Federal Reserve released a large amount of liquidity at that time, cutting rates and providing support to the market. But by the end of 2021, the situation took a sharp turn: inflation data soared to a 40-year high, unemployment rates quickly fell, and the Federal Reserve began to clearly signal interest rate hikes. The dot plot in December showed that almost all committee members supported rate hikes, and the market quickly realized that a tightening cycle was coming in 2022. Thus, the end of the bull market and expectations of rate hikes appeared almost simultaneously. This is the 'perfect overlap' of cycle and macro in 2021.

The core logic of Bitcoin's current market (from 2022 to present) lies in the strong rebound triggered by the monthly MACD returning to the zero axis, driving the price from $15,479 to $123,236.

. Observing from the dominant weekly level, this round of market has clearly experienced four complete unit adjustment cycles:


1. First wave rise (bottom formation): Initiated in November 2022, after more than half a year of weekly adjustment and bottoming out, the MACD crossed the zero axis, driving the price from $15,479 to $31,818. [First unit adjustment cycle]

2. Second wave rise (first return to zero axis): After more than five months of strong adjustment, the weekly MACD completed its first return to the zero axis in September 2023, followed by a significant price increase from $24,920 to $73,794. [Second unit adjustment cycle]