Trading cryptocurrencies is a game that foolish people cannot play, those who are too lazy to think cannot play, those with unhealthy psychology cannot play, and adventurers who seek to get rich overnight cannot play.
In the world of financial markets, successful trading relies not only on knowledge and skills but also on how to face uncertainty, manage risks, and accumulate experience and opportunities through long-term trial and error.
In the book (Antifragile), Taleb presents a profound view: The world is full of uncertainties, and those who can benefit from them are often the winners in the market. For any trader, these principles are not only guidelines for investment but also important rules for how to cope with market fluctuations and protect account safety.
Here, I will explore the five core principles of trading based on the ideas in (Antifragile), which are not only applicable to traditional investment markets but also relevant in today's high-risk cryptocurrency space. Below is my understanding and practical experience summary of these core principles.
1. Uncertainty: Face risks, learn to accept uncertainty.
In any financial market, especially in a high-volatility market like cryptocurrency, uncertainty will always be the main theme. As Taleb said: "If you can predict the market a minute in advance, you can be fabulously rich." But in fact, no one can foresee future market trends, including so-called market experts and various analytical methods. The market is a complex system; all analytical methods and tools predict the future based on past data, and no model or formula can encompass all possibilities.
Therefore, as a trader, the most important ability is to recognize the uncertainty of the market. Many investors will be swayed by various market analysts and news, blindly trusting predictions and technical indicators, while ignoring the randomness and volatility of the market.
Truly smart traders know that in the face of uncertainty, their strategy is not to predict the future, but to continuously adjust their positions and risk management to cope with market changes.
Taleb's (Antifragile) emphasizes the value of uncertainty itself—antifragility. Simply put, when the market fluctuates, some people can benefit because their strategies become stronger in volatility. This is not only a fundamental investment principle but also the key to profiting in cryptocurrency.
2. Convex trading rules: Let profits run, cut losses.
To profit long-term in the market, the most basic requirement is to set reasonable entry and exit rules, which is known as "trading rules."
However, excellent trading rules are not just about finding entry and exit points; it's more about how to remain flexible amid market fluctuations and adjust under different circumstances.
"Convexity" is a very important trading concept proposed by Taleb, its core is to let profits have no upper limit while controlling risks within an acceptable range.
Simply put, we must "cut losses and let profits run." For example, a common trading rule is to buy when the price breaks through a key level and sell when it falls below a support level.
The key to this rule is that "profits are unlimited" because the market sometimes gives you an unexpected explosive opportunity. Meanwhile, "losses are limited"; regardless of how the market fluctuates, you must set stop losses to avoid significant losses. Simple and effective trading rules maximize profits while minimizing large losses while maintaining antifragility.
3. Capital management: Ensure survival, avoid all-in gambles.
In the market, the most important thing is not how much you earn, but how to ensure the long-term survival of your account. Especially in a high-risk market like cryptocurrency, traders often face rapid market fluctuations and extreme events. At this point, an excellent capital management plan is particularly crucial.
One of the core strategies is the barbell principle. The core idea of the barbell principle is to divide funds into two parts: one part remains highly secure and stable, while the other part takes on higher risks. In the cryptocurrency space, this means 90% of funds can remain in cash or low-risk investments, while 10% is used for high-risk speculation.
The advantage of this method is that it limits maximum losses, especially during severe market fluctuations or black swan events, where traders will not lose all their assets due to a single failure. Regardless of how the market changes, maintaining the security of funds is always the top priority.
4. Repeated trial and error: accumulate experience in failure, welcome opportunities.
Trading is a long-term game; successful traders do not profit every time; often their win rate is even very low. In fact, many excellent trading systems have a win rate usually between 30%-40%. That is to say, out of every 10 trades, 6 to 7 may result in losses.
However, as Taleb emphasizes, successful trading does not rely on every success but accumulates experience through repeated trial and error. Every failure can help you understand the market better and learn how your trading system works amid uncertainty.
Through extensive repeated operations, you will find that true profits do not rely on perfect predictions but rather on making appropriate decisions at the right moment.
Therefore, successful traders are often those who can patiently wait, are willing to experience failure and learn from it, rather than those who try to get rich quickly overnight.
5. Good luck: Success requires the right time, place, and people.
In the end, even if you master all the above skills, to achieve ultimate success in the market, you still need a bit of luck. Market fluctuations are not entirely predictable; often, successful traders do not always profit from their own judgment and analytical skills; luck is also an important factor.
For instance, during significant market events or black swans, lucky traders can take the right action in a timely manner, while unlucky traders may lose due to missed opportunities. Thus, while we can reduce risks by improving our trading skills, sudden market changes in some cases can become the key to determining the success or failure of a trade.
Through the book (Antifragile), Taleb shows us how to build a trading system that can survive in a market full of uncertainties and continue to be profitable over the long term.
Understanding uncertainty, establishing effective trading rules, managing funds well, accepting the trial-and-error process, and maintaining humility in front of luck are the five core principles that any trader wishing to profit in financial markets must master.
Therefore, in the cryptocurrency space, we need to build a trading system, continuously do the right things, and eventually wait for the luck that belongs to us. In other words, after doing our part: do what you can, and leave the rest to fate.
A solemn declaration! The cryptocurrency market is about to unleash an unprecedented storm of change! If you plan to linger in the cryptocurrency space for a while and are discontented with current losses, then the following 14 cryptocurrency investment commandments must be carefully considered; they will become your sharp weapons for reversing the situation!
In the cryptocurrency space, where the investment battlefield is turbulent, mastering some core principles becomes particularly important. Next, let us delve into these carefully distilled 14 wisdom principles, which will become the solid foundation for your steady profits!
One, prioritize capital preservation, control drawdowns, decisively stop losses; it's better to incur small losses than to take big risks.
Two, greed is the enemy of trading; steady compounding is the long-term way.
Three, focus on a few varieties, never go all in, trade with the trend, and avoid risks.
Four, diversify risks, avoid heavy positions, and safeguard capital security.
Five, buy calmly, sell decisively, and stop losses must not be delayed.
Six, stop-loss is an iron rule of trading; strict implementation is essential.
Seven, short-term and long-term each have their pros and cons; the most important thing is to secure profits steadily.
Eight, the market is unpredictable; extremes must revert; beware of market changes.
Nine, missing trades is normal; seizing opportunities is better than pursuing perfection.
Ten, waiting for opportunities surpasses blind chasing; patiently waiting leads to ultimate victory.
Eleven, set trading goals, achieve and stop immediately, avoid greed and risk.
Twelve, stop-loss is a manifestation of self-discipline; profits come from market rewards.
Thirteen, wait for the right moment, be patient, and the harvest will inevitably come.
Fourteen, stay calm, resist desires; mindset determines trading success or failure.
Final message: The journey in the cryptocurrency space is full of thorns, but as long as you follow these valuable principles, you can surely step steadily and cut through obstacles to ultimately reach the shore of success!
Be friends with time: Uncovering the wealth growth principles of top contract traders.
In the wave of digital currencies, contract trading is like a thrilling game; countless people desire to get rich overnight, frequently opening trades and chasing rises and falls, ultimately becoming victims of the market. However, those who truly laugh until the end often deeply understand a simple truth—[Wealth accumulation is never based on luck but rather a compound miracle nurtured by patience and time.]
One, the market never lacks gamblers; what is scarce is the "sniper."
In the fast-paced trading world, many mistakenly equate "high-frequency operations" with "professional ability," blindly following trends and making emotional trades, ultimately being consumed by fees and volatility. True top contract traders are more like calm snipers: they do not pull the trigger due to market noise, but lie in wait within data and trends, waiting for the best moment.
Layout takes time: From macroeconomics to on-chain data, from technical indicators to market sentiment, behind every precise strike lies days or even weeks of research and deduction.
Signals need verification: The market's "false breakthroughs" appear endlessly; mature traders will cross-verify through multiple dimensions to ensure the win rate and profit-loss ratio of their strategies.
Restraint is wisdom: While 90% of retail investors consume energy in irrational trading, top experts understand "to act calmly," observing 80% of the time and harvesting 20% of the time.
Two, slow is fast: Compound interest is a "cheat sheet" gifted by time.
Einstein once said, "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world." In contract trading, this is vividly illustrated. Suppose a trader achieves a steady 10% return every month:
- Month 1: 1.1 times the principal.
- Month 6: 1.77 times.
- Month 12: 3.14 times.
- Three years later: An astonishing 309 times!
But the premise of all this is to refuse the temptation of "All-in"; strictly follow position management; accept the rhythm of "small steps and slow running" to avoid missing out due to greed; and establish long-term trust with traders rather than questioning strategies due to short-term fluctuations.
Three, choose your following object: first be a "detective," then a "follower."
Excellent contract traders are by no means "myth makers"; their value lies in details.
1. Historical records are transparent and traceable: over 3 years of actual trading records, the profit curve through bull and bear markets is more convincing than short-term high profits.
2. Risk control stricter than military discipline: single loss not exceeding 2%, total drawdown controlled within 15%;
3. Logic is greater than results: Openly share trading strategy frameworks, clearly explaining the underlying logic of each trade.
4. Refuse to glorify profits: Communicate market risks honestly, rather than promising "no loss guaranteed."
Let the professionals cultivate, let time blossom.
The key to financial freedom is never in the dazzling K-lines but in the hands of those willing to meticulously carve every trade. If you are looking for a reliable contract trader—
Please give him enough patience and allow him to avoid noise to capture real opportunities.
Please give time enough respect, allowing compound interest to grow quietly over the years.
Please believe: Wisdom in a slow rhythm will ultimately triumph over the frenzy of a fast pace.
The wait at this moment is to sigh one day in the future: "The smartest investment is choosing the right people and quietly becoming friends with time."
The secrets of cryptocurrency skyrocketing are revealed! Do you dare to play these 9 tricks for huge profits?
The methods in the cryptocurrency space are varied, and profit-making tactics are abundant; come see how many tricks you know!
Coin hoarding skills: Buy and hold, remain calm amidst price fluctuations, testing human nature to the extreme! If you can endure until the flowers bloom, the profits will make you grin.
Bull market whirlwind cut: Take out one-fifth of your spare money, select medium-cap coins, quickly enter and exit; even if you're stuck, you can quickly break free; avoid junk coins!
Capital chase technique: In a bull market, funds flow like an hourglass, large coins rise, then small coins; follow the rhythm; lying down to earn is not a dream.
Pyramid reversal: Magnify your moves during a big drop, buy more as it falls, with low costs and low risk; a rebound will be exhilarating.
Moving average kill technique: Those who can read K-lines use moving averages to locate buy and sell points, making precise strikes to earn continuously.
Violent rolling coin method: Lock in quality coins, low buy high sell, profits roll into new coins, the warehouse gets higher and higher.
New coins explosive: After a wave of profits from newly issued coins, cycle operations, principal stable, profits skyrocket.
High sell low buy technique: Find highly volatile coins, buy low and sell high, keep a close watch on the market, and quick, precise actions are the keys to victory!
Small coin net: Divide ten thousand into ten small coins evenly, with low costs and strong potential for explosion; cash out when it doubles, withdraw the principal and re-fight, the compound interest will be exhilarating.
Big shot's aphorism: The market is like a battlefield, opportunities and traps coexist. Investment not going well? Don’t rush; I can help you turn it around! Do you dare to try?
A super simple trading method, repeated operations can turn two hundred thousand into millions; doesn't it sound a bit unbelievable?
In fact, those who lose money often just haven't found the right method. To make money, the key is to find a method that suits you and practice it; who knows, one day the numbers in your account might just shoot up. This is what my senior said, and I always remember it. The trick I used before is both simple and practical compared to other methods on the market.
When the market is sideways, we should wait and see, because often after a consolidation, there will be big moves. Once the situation is clear, we act to ensure profits.
Also, don't become emotionally attached to popular positions; you need to switch frequently; otherwise, you might end up with nothing. Those short-term hot items are all speculative; once the heat fades, the funds will run, and if you're slow by half a beat, you'll be left in confusion.
Speaking of rising times, if you see K-lines slowly climbing up, and there's a good start with increasing trading volume, it indicates the market is about to accelerate. At this point, we must stay calm, hold tight to the ticket, and surely there will be big gains ahead.
However, if you see a particularly large bullish candle, regardless of whether it's high or low, you should quickly withdraw, even if it hits the ceiling. Why? Because we need to guard against profits returning.
Another little tip is to buy on a bearish line online and sell on a bullish line offline; if wrong, admit it. Here, the line refers to moving averages or important support/resistance levels. For short-term trading, generally just look at daily and daily attack lines. I don't like to drag things out; positions usually do not exceed three days, at most a week, and I don't dwell on good things afterward.
In the cryptocurrency space, there is a basic principle: do not sell when prices rise, do not buy when they drop, stabilize during sideways markets.
In the end, prepare before buying; it's better to buy a little than to throw in everything at once. After all, in the cryptocurrency space, the only constant is change.
Today I will share how I managed to stop losing and make slight profits.
When making trades, do not frequently experiment; this "testing" will harm you.
Easily leads to a mindset of 'losing doesn't matter,' since it's just a test.
Then it turns into frequent trading due to constant trial and error, and frequent trading leads to frequent losses, ultimately small losses accumulate into big losses. Once trading is accompanied by emotions...
That is the beginning of destruction; trading must be mechanized and programmed; you must set a positive screening condition for your entry.
If your conditions are not met, never open a position.
This easily avoids frequent trading; you'll find you have more free time and more time to think.
Once a trade starts to profit, you may choose not to cash out, but you must consider taking profits—target profits, trailing stops, shape-based stops, and edge-based stops, depending on the situation.
I usually prefer to use trailing stops, as my screening conditions once met lead to a one-sided market.
So I used trailing stops to eventually catch a 10-fold return!
BTC big cycle: The psychological journey of retail investors.
Friends who have traded cryptocurrencies know that to profit, you must buy low and sell high.
So how to buy when BTC falls to ten thousand at the bear bottom, and then hold until the bull market reaches above fifteen thousand.
Some people see this and think it's easy; isn't it just buying and selling? But behind this seemingly simple strategy are numerous challenges, from beginning to end, it is a supreme test of human nature.
The following is a simulation of the psychological journey of retail investors:
Doubt: Can Bitcoin really drop to ten thousand? I can't think of any black swan that could crash it that low?
Fear: Oh no! Bitcoin has dropped to ten thousand; could it continue to fall? Blockchain scam! Don’t buy!
Conservative: Bought Bitcoin at ten thousand, now it has risen to twenty thousand; doubling means I will cash out and secure the profits.
Missing the opportunity: Sold at twenty thousand, waiting for a correction; now it's risen to fifty thousand, can't help it, I'll re-enter.
Satisfaction: Bitcoin has reached 100,000! It seems like it should peak; I will withdraw first, leaving the tail market to you, and make a short.
Greed: Bitcoin has reached 150,000! Shorting leads to liquidation; starting to go long, it will definitely continue to rise! Eternal bull market! Selling a house to gamble! The transition between bull and bear markets happens quietly; soon the cryptocurrency space begins a new round of significant corrections, and those who did not escape in time are trapped at the peak.
During the entire process, Bitcoin's actual increase was more than 15 times, but many retail investors may have only gained a few times, and may even have given back their only profits due to not escaping the peak in time.
True winners are those who hardly traded from beginning to end.
Remember, although trading systems are not absolutely perfect, those who use them can create miracles. The real challenge is not in technology but in the depth of understanding. Don't let trading traps blind your eyes. I am Qing Tian, exploring the essence of the market with you in the cryptocurrency space!
