浮望

Core events affecting Ethereum's trend on July 31, 2025
Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision (02:00 Beijing time) + Powell's press conference (02:30).
Market expectations are for 'no interest rate cut in July', but the dot plot and Powell's wording will determine the rise and fall of risk assets:
• If it suggests only one rate cut for the year (hawkish): ETH may briefly retrace to the 3,500–3,600 area.
• If it suggests two or more rate cuts (dovish): ETH is expected to challenge 4,000–4,040 USD, triggering short liquidations.
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Technical Levels Quick Reference (ETH/USDT)
Key Levels
Upper Resistance 3,940–4,000 Daily Bollinger upper band, short liquidation zone
Short-term Resistance 3,800–3,820 30min VWAP, multiple failed attempts intraday
Intraday Bull-Bear Threshold 3,709 4h Supertrend, falling below will quickly weaken
First Support 3,516 Daily Bollinger middle band + EMA20, last line of defense for bulls
Strong Support 3,090–3,100 Structural validation zone, breaking below will declare the end of this rebound
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Take Profit and Stop Loss Strategy (Short-term Contract Example)
• Already holding long positions
• Move up take profit: 3,950–4,000 (in batches, leave some for market action after the Fed)
• Move stop loss: 3,710 (below the 4h Supertrend), breaking below will liquidate all.
• No positions or preparing to go short
• Shorting on rebound: Build short positions in batches in the 3,940–4,000 area, stop loss above 4,050.
• Chasing shorts on breakdown: Confirm break below 3,700 before chasing shorts, stop loss at 3,760, target 3,516/3,300.
• Spot/low leverage
• Take profit: Reduce positions by 30–50% near 4,000, move stop loss of remaining position to 3,600 for breakeven.
• Adding positions: If it retraces to 3,500–3,550 after the overnight data and quickly recovers, can add back positions.
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Risk Reminder
1. Trading volume is key to distinguishing between real and false breakouts: a volume breakout above 3,940 can pursue long; a false breakout with low volume is likely to fall back.
2. Tonight's volatility is extremely high, contracts must lower leverage (≤3 times), keep 20% USDT in spot for pin risk.
3. If the Federal Reserve shows extreme hawkish signals, ETH's intraday low may quickly pierce 3,500; set up 'fishing orders' in the 3,450–3,500 range in advance.
#以太坊十周年

On the morning of July 30, the Ethereum market showed that after the K-line in the 4-hour chart declined to around 3715, it rebounded weakly. Currently, it is close to the EMA30 and mid-band area, which is under pressure again. The fast and slow lines have a death cross opening continuing. The Bollinger Bands at the daily level continue to narrow, with the upper band pressing down, limiting the short-term rebound space. After the mid-band support was pierced, pay attention to the EMA10 and EMA15 range. If it fails to hold, it may dip towards the lower band around 3630. Operation suggestion: Short position above 3810 lightly, stop loss at 3890, target 3725-3680, if it breaks 3675, it can continue to hold until around 3630; Long position lightly below 3630, stop loss below 3580, target 3710-3780. #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

The impact of tonight's US stock market opening on Ethereum (ETH): Recently, the performance of the US stock market has had a significant impact on Ethereum, which has shown a tendency to follow declines rather than rises. However, there has been a noticeable influx of funds recently, exceeding expectations. Currently, Ethereum is in a strong position, contrary to previous expectations of a decline after acquiring short liquidity, and we need to pay attention to key breakout levels.
Regarding the take-profit and stop-loss levels for opening positions:
• Entry level: 3522 (aggressive long position, 0.886 level, betting on MACD golden cross opportunity), stop-loss level: 3505 (20 points stop-loss).
• Resistance level: 3817 (the last key point, a breakout will change the outlook on Ethereum).
• Support level: 3430 (conservative long position).
Suggestion: Currently, Ethereum is stronger than expected, do not chase the rise, wait for the breakout confirmation at 3817 before adjusting the strategy, take small positions to bet on technical indicator recovery opportunities, and strictly implement stop-losses.
#纳斯达克 #Ethereum

Today (July 29) Ethereum's major events include: Linea, Consensys, and Nile will launch the DEX Etherex (built on Ramses v3 technology) on July 28, and on July 29, the preferred stock STRC of Strategy will be issued, Hashdex will launch a mixed Bitcoin and gold ETF GBTC11 in Brazil, and the Sui ecosystem's parallel multi-party computing network Ika will also go live on the mainnet. Additionally, Binance Alpha will launch Treehouse (TREE).
Recent Ethereum performance: ETH has returned to $3,800, on-chain whale holdings and long-term staking behavior have strengthened, ETF capital net inflows remain strong, and favorable U.S. compliance legislation is emerging, driving up the demand for ETH stablecoin underlying assets. The current support level is $3,650-$3,680, and the resistance level is $3,770-$3,850, with a recommendation to pay attention to resistance interactions around $3,822.
Trading suggestions: If entering the market, consider buying in batches in the $3,650-$3,680 range, with a stop-loss set below $3,600 (or a more conservative level below $2,750), and take-profit levels can focus on the $3,770-$3,850 area.
#以太坊ETF批准预期

Ethereum Market on July 28, 2025
• New High Breakthrough: Ethereum (ETH) breaks $3940, setting a new high for 2025, just 22% away from the historical peak, but technical indicators (RSI at 84.74) show overbought conditions, indicating short-term pullback risks.
• Regulatory and Market Expectations: Although the GENIUS Act provides a regulatory framework for stablecoins, the SEC's recognition of Ethereum's securities status remains uncertain.
• PoS Network Dynamics: Approximately 660,000 ETH (about $2.54 billion) are queued to exit the Ethereum PoS network, while 263,000 ETH (about $1.01 billion) are waiting to join, reflecting market divergence (some stakers are taking profits while new funding is driven by institutional demand).
• Potential Liquidation Pressure: If Ethereum breaks $4000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEXs will reach $979 million.

Tonight's Opening Position Profit and Loss Reference as of today (2025-07-28 21:45)
Ethereum (ETH) is currently around 3,900 USDT, in a short-term "High-Range Fluctuation - Volume Divergence" state:
1. On-chain/Order Book Indicators
• 3,578 USDT is a densely packed liquidation line for bulls; a drop below this could trigger a chain liquidation level of $1.7 billion.
• The 3,958–3,990 USDT range is a dense area for short liquidations; breaking through this will accelerate upward.
• Large whales/smart money have shown "High-Range Reduction" actions in the past 24 hours; caution is advised when chasing highs in the short term.
2. Suitable Entry Range (Long Position)
① Retracement to 3,650–3,660 USDT (1h-EMA10 and 4h-S1 support overlap during the day)
② Deep retracement to 3,610–3,620 USDT (4h-S2 + previous low structure)
Build positions in batches, with a single position ≤20% leverage capital, total leverage ≤3 times.
3. Take Profit/Stop Loss (Long Position)
• Stop Loss: Set uniformly at 3,578 USDT (triggered means all stop loss to avoid spikes).
• Take Profit:
– First Target 3,888 USDT (previous high of the day / 4h-R1)
– Second Target 3,950 USDT (short liquidation zone)
– Leave 20% position to target 4,050 USDT (protecting the position after breakthrough)
4. If choosing to short (only for ultra-short-term high-leverage players)
• Entry: Signals of low-volume stagnation at 1h level in the 3,950–3,970 USDT range.
• Stop Loss: Above 3,990 USDT.
• Take Profit: 3,850 → 3,800 USDT.
Risk Control Reminder: Current RSI 78–80, showing continuous volume-price divergence, the probability of a short-term pullback is higher than continued one-way rise; be sure to set stop losses.

#以太坊ETF

【July 28, 2025 Morning Key Points Review】
1. Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on July 29–30 is approaching, and the market continues to price in a 25 bp rate cut expectation; the US dollar index has retreated, and risk assets are generally warming up.
2. Funds: Tether has issued an additional 2 billion USDT in the past two days, and the expansion of stablecoin supply is seen as a short-term driving force for rising prices.
3. Technical Analysis: ETH has repeatedly 'faked' a breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band (around the 3,530–3,550 range) in the 30-minute cycle and has since recovered, showing strong defensive buying from institutions; the daily line has broken through 3,600, with a short-term target directly at 3,800 (previous high + trend line projection).
4. On-chain: The net outflow of ETH from exchanges over the past 24 hours is 42,000 coins, with selling pressure continuing to decline; deposits in staking contracts have increased, indicating a tight supply-demand situation.
【Short-term for the day】
Direction: Low long (following the trend)
Entry range: 3,760–3,780
First take profit: 3,880
Second take profit: 3,880–3,920
Stop loss: 3,680
If it falls below 3,480 and recovers, a reversal to short can be initiated, with a target of 3,400 / 3,350 and a stop loss at 3,520.
#ETH重返3800

Evening Important News
1. Whale Movements: On July 25, a certain whale was forced to stop loss on a short position at the ETH price of $3528.85, indicating a setback for short-term bearish momentum.
2. Market Rhythm: An article on July 25 pointed out that ETH is in a horizontal consolidation after a 'second peak in the early morning,' with short-term fluctuations expanding. A daily range of $200–300 has become the norm, and we need to be cautious of a 'boiling frog' type of gradual decline.
3. Macro Atmosphere: U.S. tariffs and monetary policy remain the main themes in the market; as long as there are no sudden negative news, the overall risk sentiment is manageable.
Short-term Key Ranges (Contract/Short-term Spot Reference)
• Resistance Level: $3892 (Intraday bull-bear dividing line)
• Support Levels: $3486 (First support) → $3339 (Second support) → $3247–3200 (Extreme pullback zone)
Suggested Take Profit / Stop Loss Plan
1. If holding long positions:
– Move Take Profit: First target at the $3820–3850 area; if unable to break through, reduce positions; if strongly broken through, look up to $3890–3920 for staggered take profits.
– Stop Loss: If it falls below $3486 and cannot recover in a 15-minute close, trigger stop loss, stop loss price at $3460–3470.
2. If planning to short at high positions:
– Entry: Light position shorting in the $3880–3900 area.
– Take Profit: First target at $3700, second target at $3580; if it breaks $3486 with volume, hold until below $3400.
– Stop Loss: If it rises above $3920, immediately stop loss (to prevent false breakouts).
3. Swing/Spot Investors:
– Can wait for a pullback to the $3247–3200 range before considering adding positions in batches;
– Set stop loss below $3150, with a mid-term target still looking at $4000+.
Friendly Reminder
• From tonight until Sunday is a low liquidity period for the weekend; do not hold heavy positions.
• If a rapid V-shaped reversal occurs (quick recovery after breaking support), it can be considered a short-term bullish signal, and you can try a long position based on the 'break and recover' logic.
#以太坊ETF

1. Key Prices
• Current Price: 3,750 USDT
• Daily High: 3,782
• Daily Low: 3,636
• 15 min Bollinger Bands: Upper Band 3,790, Lower Band 3,640
2. 100× Leverage Ultra Aggressive Points
1. Direction: Bullish Breakout (Short-term bullish momentum not exhausted)
Trigger: 3,790
Stop Loss: 3,745
Take Profit: 3,825
2. Reverse Short (Fake Breakout Reversal)
Trigger: 15 min shows 3,800 long upper shadow or RSI > 90 divergence
Stop Loss: 3,815
Take Profit: 3,730
#以太坊ETF

Ethereum Trend Prediction and Strategy Tonight (2025-07-26)
1. Trend Judgment
• Key Levels: Currently, ETH is fluctuating in the range of $3600-$3700. If it breaks below $3600, it may test the $3400 support; if it holds above $3700 and breaks $3750, it may target $4000.
• Sentiment Indicator: Greed Index 71 (Extreme Greed), short-term volatility 16.3%, 70% of trading days are up.
2. Entry and Take Profit/Stop Loss Strategy
• Entry Price: $3550-$3600 (close to today's low, if quickly retested, can build positions in batches).
• Take Profit: First target $3800 (previous high resistance), second target $4000 (psychological level after breakthrough).
• Stop Loss: $3450 (confirmation of continued bearish trend if it breaks below $3600, strict stop loss required).
3. Risk Warning
• U.S. Stock Market Impact: If U.S. tech stocks pull back tonight, it may trigger a chain decline in the cryptocurrency market, caution required for the validity of the $3600 support.
• Liquidity: Lower trading volume on weekends, avoid high-leverage operations.
Suggestion: Light positions to try going long, strict stop loss, add positions after breaking $3750 to chase the trend.
#以太

Ethereum (ETH) Short-Term Trend Judgment on July 26 Afternoon
1. Latest Key Levels
• Strong Resistance: $3,850 – $3,900 (intraday high coinciding with recent high), with $4,000 being the psychological barrier above.
• Core Support: $3,680 (strong support for short cycles) → $3,190 (0.786 retracement level) → $3,000 – $2,900 range (deep pullback buying zone).
• Current Price Range: If the current price remains between $3,750 – $3,800, it is in the 'below resistance, above support' wedge area.
2. Evening Trend Inference
1. Scenario A: Risk events settle or U.S. stock market opens strong
ETH may test $3,900 – $4,000 upwards again; if it breaks through $4,000 with volume and stabilizes, it can quickly follow the trend, targeting $4,100 – $4,200.
2. Scenario B: Market risk aversion increases or Bitcoin drains liquidity
ETH may retest around $3,680 or even $3,500 to find buying interest; if $3,680 is lost, it is likely to continue seeking support around $3,190 – $3,000.

Risk Warning: If U.S. stocks open significantly low tonight, or if Federal Reserve officials speak hawkishly, or if the Middle East situation escalates, it may trigger a rapid market pullback. Please assess your own leverage and positions before deciding whether to enter the market.
Summary in One Sentence
Tonight, ETH is likely to fluctuate between $3,680 – $3,900; the best 'low-risk buying point' in the short term is the first retest near $3,680, while the 'high-risk high-reward buying point' is following the trend after a volume breakout above $4,000.

The Current Market Sentiment's Impact on Ethereum's Trend
1. Greed Sentiment Remains High
As of today (July 26), the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is at 71, remaining in the 'Greed' range for several consecutive days. This sentiment can often lead to two opposing effects:
• Support for High-Level Consolidation: Bulls still have enough momentum, buying the dips in the $3,600 to $3,650 range to prevent a significant price drop;
• Accumulation of Correction Risks: Extreme greed is often a breeding ground for short-term tops. Once buying pressure cannot keep up, profit-taking will surge, amplifying volatility.
2. FOMO and Short Squeeze Expectations Coexist
In the past week, ETH has rapidly surged close to $4,000, with calls on social media and communities to 'hit new all-time highs' rising, spreading FOMO sentiment. This is validated on the liquidation map:
• Below $3,600, $3,500, and $3,400, a large amount of short liquidations has accumulated. If the price stops declining and rebounds, it will trigger 'short squeeze' buying;
• Above $3,700 to $4,000, there is a dense accumulation of long liquidations. If the upward move fails, long liquidation will exacerbate the correction.
Therefore, the greed sentiment provides potential fuel while also laying the groundwork for intense fluctuations.
3. Divergence in Capital: Retail Investors Hesitant, Whales Diverging
• The active long-short ratio on exchanges shows that short positions slightly dominate across most platforms, with short-term funds tending to be cautious;
• On-chain data indicates that whale addresses saw net inflows from July 24 to 26, suggesting that some large holders view the correction as an opportunity to increase positions and remain optimistic in the medium to long term.
This misalignment of 'retail hesitation and large holders buying the dip' often results in price first consolidating before choosing a direction.
4. Macro and Ecological Expectations Continue to Provide Support
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising demand for RWA (Real World Assets) and stablecoins, combined with the recovery of daily active users in the Layer 2 ecosystem, provide a medium-term bullish narrative for ETH. Before the greed sentiment completely retracts, these fundamental factors limit the space for a deep correction.
Conclusion
The greed sentiment makes it difficult for ETH to 'drop deeply or rise easily' at high levels, and it is highly likely to maintain a volatile range of $3,500 to $3,800 in the short term; if the sentiment indicator moves into 'Extreme Greed' (>75), caution should be taken against a rapid surge followed by a drop. Conversely, if the greed index falls below 50, combined with triggering liquidation zones, ETH may leverage this to complete a healthy pullback before attempting to rise again.
#以太坊交易量反超比特币

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