【July 28, 2025 Morning Key Points Review】
1. Macroeconomics: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on July 29–30 is approaching, and the market continues to price in a 25 bp rate cut expectation; the US dollar index has retreated, and risk assets are generally warming up.
2. Funds: Tether has issued an additional 2 billion USDT in the past two days, and the expansion of stablecoin supply is seen as a short-term driving force for rising prices.
3. Technical Analysis: ETH has repeatedly 'faked' a breakdown below the lower Bollinger Band (around the 3,530–3,550 range) in the 30-minute cycle and has since recovered, showing strong defensive buying from institutions; the daily line has broken through 3,600, with a short-term target directly at 3,800 (previous high + trend line projection).
4. On-chain: The net outflow of ETH from exchanges over the past 24 hours is 42,000 coins, with selling pressure continuing to decline; deposits in staking contracts have increased, indicating a tight supply-demand situation.
【Short-term for the day】
Direction: Low long (following the trend)
Entry range: 3,760–3,780
First take profit: 3,880
Second take profit: 3,880–3,920
Stop loss: 3,680
If it falls below 3,480 and recovers, a reversal to short can be initiated, with a target of 3,400 / 3,350 and a stop loss at 3,520.
