I. Current market snapshot
1. Price range
• 24 h range: 3563–3758 USDT
• This Friday (7-25) ETH options expire, maximum pain at 2800 USDT, Put/Call 0.87, shorts still account for 3–4% ratio.
• Dark pool large orders show signs of long-term position building in the 2350–2450 range, indicating that institutions do not consider above 3600 as an absolute high.
2. Technical analysis
• 4 h MACD: Histogram shortened from negative, but has not yet crossed; momentum is neutral slightly leaning bullish;
• 4 h K line: After a large bearish candle in yesterday's morning session, two bullish candles were consecutively formed in the afternoon with increased volume, indicating a short-term 'deep drop rebound' rhythm;
• Key levels: Resistance 3755–3790, Support 3563/3520/3478.
3. Capital and sentiment
• Spot ETF net inflow of 4.2 billion US dollars this year, continuously providing support;
• Twitter/Reddit mainstream sentiment: bullish, but worried about 'false breakouts' and pullbacks.
II. 'Extreme' strategy for 100x contracts (suitable only for high-risk players)
1. Direction: Go long in the short term, capture the rebound extension.
2. Entry:
• First limit order 3563–3587 (yesterday's low and previous low resonance);
• Second limit order 3478–3520 (if a quick spike occurs).
3. Stop loss: opening price -1.0% ≈ 35–36 USDT, corresponding liquidation price is about 1% away from the opening price, must use layered positions + forced liquidation protection.
4. Take profit:
• First target 3755 (yesterday's high),
• Second target 3830 (high before July),
• Gradually reduce positions, push remaining 20% position to protect and chase the psychological barrier of 4000.
5. Leverage usage tips:
• Use 'laddered position' - only invest 20% of funds at each price level to avoid full position.
• Set automatic position reduction (ADL) trigger reminder to prevent extreme spikes on the platform.
III. Risks and countermeasures
1. Under 100x leverage, a 1% reverse price fluctuation will trigger liquidation, be sure to use layered positions + small positions.
2. Low liquidity over the weekend, high spike frequency, please set network fee slippage tolerance at 5–10 USDT.
3. If 3520 is effectively broken, it indicates a failed rebound, immediately stop loss completely and short to see 3400.
Summary in one sentence
Aggressive long position: enter in batches at 3563–3587, stop loss at 3520, take profit in batches at 3755/3830, must use 'small position + layered entry + strict stop loss' under 100x leverage.
