1. Macroeconomic Aspect: The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is approaching in early August, and the market tends to price in 'maintaining high interest rates' expectations in advance, suppressing overall risk asset sentiment.
2. Sustainability of Ethereum Spot Buying is Doubtful: The recent rise in ETH is mainly driven by spot demand from 'coin-stock subscriptions'; if related companies cannot continue financing like MicroStrategy, buying may dry up, and ETH will enter a consolidation phase.
3. Regulation and Capital Trends: Cathie Wood pointed out that Robinhood provides a 2% reward for ETH transfers, leading to a surge in staking redemptions, which may cause selling pressure in the short term.
4. Technical Upgrade: UniSat Wallet will enable BRC-20 single-step transfer function at midnight on July 29, funds may briefly flow back into the Bitcoin ecosystem, diverting attention from ETH funds.
Ethereum (ETH) Intraday Trend Judgment
• Big Structure: Daily line is still in a 'strong bullish' trend, but the 4H level shows a 'inverted hammer + high-level fluctuation' combination, indicating a short-term pullback demand.
• Key Price Level
– Upper Resistance: 3,789–3,775 (4H previous high + flag upper bound).
– Lower Support: 3,583 (4H range lower bound), if lost, look at 3,500 (daily MA7).
• Estimated Rhythm: The white盘 will first pull back to the 3,555–3,595 area; if it holds, it can push to 3,750; otherwise, if it breaks below 3,550, it will test 3,400–3,450.
Intraday Short-term Trading Plan (suitable for 4H level fast entry and exit)
1. Best Entry Range
– Bulls: 3,555–3,590 (place ladder orders in batches, first order 30% position).
– Conservatives wait for 3,400–3,450 (previous high neck line overlapping Fibonacci 0.382) to re-enter.
2. Take Profit
– First Target: 3,750–3,780 (previous high dense transaction area), reduce position by 50%.
– Remaining position looks at 3,900–4,000 (if it breaks through 3,800 with volume).
3. Stop Loss
– Long position unified stop loss at 3,520 (below the bottom of the range to prevent deep correction).
– If choosing to chase long at high levels (confirm after breaking 3,780 and pulling back to 3,750), set stop loss at 3,650.
4. Position and Risk Control
– Single trade risk ≤ 2% of capital, total position ≤ 15%, avoid high leverage.
– Pay attention to the fluctuations before and after the BRC-20 upgrade on 07-29 03:00 (UTC+8), tighten stop loss or hedge in advance.
Summary in one sentence
Intraday ETH is likely to first pull back to the 3,555–3,590 area; if it holds, it can long to above 3,750; if it breaks below 3,520, abandon the long and wait for 3,400–3,450 to reposition.
