浩哥_WH

【今晚数据定调9月市场！鲍威尔埋下关键风向标】
今晚8点15分，美国将公布8月ADP就业数据（也就是大家常说的「小非农」），市场预测值6.5万人，较前值10.4万大幅下滑；紧接着8点30分，每周初请失业金人数也将出炉，预期23万人，与前值基本持平。而更重磅的「非农就业数据」+失业率，将在明晚同一时间公布——这两组数据，全是能搅动市场的「王炸」。

为什么这些数据比明星八卦还受关注？核心原因在美联储主席鲍威尔身上。他近期直接摊牌：当前经济下行风险加剧，只要就业市场出现一点「拉胯」迹象，就可能直接引爆降息预期，甚至让市场开始畅想「单次降息50个基点」——这种激进剧本，放在去年根本没人敢想。

接下来分享我的核心观点，帮大家理清逻辑：

- 数据差=币圈利好？ 逻辑很直接：就业数据崩→美联储紧急启动降息→美元走弱→热钱流向比特币等风险资产。参考6月非农数据崩盘后，BTC单日暴涨8%的历史行情，今晚若ADP数据低于6.5万，大概率会复制这波上涨。
- 警惕「预期陷阱」 ：目前市场已经提前押注降息，万一数据反而超预期稳健（比如ADP＞7万），短期可能直接反噬风险资产，BTC回调到6万刀也并非不可能。

再说说鲍威尔的「平衡术」：他一边怕关税战推高通胀，一边又怕就业市场凉得太快，嘴上总说「处境艰难」，但行动很诚实——只要数据走差，立马转向鸽派。

给大家举个直观例子：上个月非农数据意外暴雷，BTC一小时内直接暴涨3000刀，ETH也跟涨20%。这次若历史重演，做杠杆冲高的玩家可能直接起飞，但高倍合约也可能在波动中瞬间「爆仓埋人」，风险和机会永远并存。

最后划重点：明晚的非农数据才是「终极审判」！如果想实时盯盘、听我同步拆解数据逻辑，评论区扣「避险」，今晚我会开直播带大家蹲点——记住，行情往往在共识分裂时突然爆发。

Has Bitcoin Found Its Bottom? Price Trends and Indicator Divergence Reveal Key Signals

The current market focus is on whether Bitcoin has found bottom support. Recent price movements and on-chain indicators are providing crucial clues to this question.

From the price perspective, Bitcoin is expected to achieve three consecutive days of gains at the beginning of September, a trend that has not been seen since early August. Looking back to August, after reaching $113,000, Bitcoin rose back to $124,000 within two weeks. If this upward momentum can continue, it may become an important signal of bottom formation.

On-chain indicators are also sending positive signals: if the current upward trend persists, short-term holders are likely to avoid realizing profits/losses in the red area that represents “capitulation,” which is starkly different from last week when BTC broke below $110,000 — at that time, the market recorded $943 million in realized losses, reflecting the state of panic seen during the peak of market fear in April.

What is even more noteworthy is the “abnormal divergence” between indicators: despite previous sell-offs, Bitcoin's net realized profit/loss has not entered the loss zone but instead surged to a one-month high, recording $4.2 billion in net profit, which is completely contrary to typical bear market trends. It is important to note that during 2022 when Bitcoin declined 63% for the entire year, it was precisely because investors were generally selling at a loss that NRPL turned to losses simultaneously.

So, does the current divergence between price and NRPL mean that market confidence in Bitcoin remains strong? This question may become central to assessing future trends.

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今晚聚焦：美国失业金数据如何搅动市场？

今晚市场核心关注点锁定美国失业金数据，作为衡量就业市场健康度的关键指标，其变动将直接牵动经济预期与金融市场走向。其中，初次申请失业金人数反映就业市场短期波动，持续领取人数则揭示失业状态的延续性，二者共同构成预判经济形势的重要参考。

若数据高于预期，意味着就业市场承压：企业经营压力或进一步传导，消费者收入预期降温将抑制消费，进而拖累企业营收与利润，对经济增长形成制约。货币政策层面，这一信号可能延缓美联储降息进程，政策制定者或倾向于等待就业市场出现明确改善信号后，再调整货币政策方向。

具体到金融市场，不同领域将呈现差异化反应：

外汇市场：数据不及预期时，市场对美联储启动宽松政策的预期升温，可能推动美元汇率走弱；

股票市场：投资者会担忧企业盈利前景受经济疲软影响，股市大概率面临下行压力；

债券市场：就业市场疲软信号将增强避险情绪，资金流向债券等稳健资产，有望推动债券价格上涨、收益率下行。

The strategy for the concubine's list provided in the morning has shown results, and we have currently captured a profit margin of around 100 points.

The morning pullback is limited. Friends who pursue stability may take the 850-point space for safety.

In the short term, the market is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern, making it difficult to have a clear one-sided direction; however, the overall trend remains bearish, with the next target focused on 111000. If it breaks below this, we can further look at around 108900.

BNB Analysis
From the short-term trend, the resistance level above is at 865, and the support level below is at 840. At this point, both rise and fall are possible. However, looking at the 4-hour level trend, the overall bias is still weak.

Therefore, the short-term suggestion is to wait for a price rebound before shorting, approximately around 853 can be considered. If it can drop to 840, and if it breaks below that, then continue to see 830; if it does not break below 840, then switch to going long at the low.

September 4th ETH Morning Analysis

After rushing to the 4488 level at midnight, the momentum to move upwards weakened, and then it fluctuated around the 4470 range.

Looking at the recent trend, there have been several attempts to break through the 4500 mark, but none have successfully stabilized. Now, the area around 4500 has become a clear and strong resistance. Before breaking through this resistance area, the upcoming operations should focus on 'shorting at highs'.

Operation Suggestions

You can short around the 4490 area, targeting first at 4400, then at 4340, and further down you can look at around 4250.

September 4th Morning BTC Analysis

Currently, Bitcoin is not very active, but the recent sideways consolidation may be building momentum for a significant upcoming movement. The price is slowly rising, but it hasn't surged like before; today during the day it has already reached a recent high.

Looking at the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, and the candlesticks indicate a downward adjustment. In the short term, a decline is highly probable. Therefore, for the upcoming operations, the main strategy will be to 'short on rallies'.

Operation Suggestions

Short when around 112300 to 113200, with the initial target at 111000, and then look towards around 108900.

ETH Analysis on the Evening of September 3

Although the MACD indicator shows initial signs of a golden cross, the strength of the red energy bars is weak, failing to provide effective upward momentum, and the overall market remains biased towards a bearish pattern, with no substantial change in trend.

Operational Suggestions

Consider establishing short positions around 4400 and 4430, with target prices sequentially looking towards 4320 and 4250.

September 3rd BTC Evening Analysis

After the rebound in BTC price, the DIF in the MACD indicator is starting to approach the DEA, and the strength of the red energy bars is also weakening. This indicates that the short-term buying pressure is diminishing, and the upward pressure above is becoming increasingly apparent. The previous price highs may block further increases.

Operational Suggestions

You can make a trade near 111800 and 112300, targeting first at 110500. If it continues to decline, then look for 109600.

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The news from the pancake futures is in! Accurately grasping the trend, we have successfully secured 13000U. Following the right strategy, profits are never ambiguous!

Morning ETH Trading Report: First target point accurately recovered, 60 points of space steadily secured, the market does not wait for anyone, following the right rhythm is key!

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September 3rd Morning ETH Analysis

Currently, ETH is fluctuating around the level of 4300. Overall, the market is slowly trending downwards. Although there are occasional small rebounds, the upward momentum has consistently been lacking, and the magnitude of the rebounds is also quite limited.

From a short-term trading strategy perspective, it is advisable to take advantage of the market rebounds and continue to adopt a strategy of shorting at higher levels.

Operation Suggestions
Consider setting up short positions around 4350 and 4400, targeting 4290; if it breaks below 4290, then look down towards the vicinity of 4200.

September 3 Morning BCT Analysis

Before analyzing the market, let's first review the negative performance of the market during yesterday's meeting with Old Trump. As a person of significant influence on the market, his current state can somewhat reflect the recent market trends.

From a macro perspective, the M2 money supply has reached its highest value. On the surface, the market appears lively, but there are three hidden risks: first, prices are rising too quickly; second, expenditures far exceed income; third, there is significant debt pressure. In the past, excessive money supply has led to substantial fluctuations in the global market. If money continues to be distributed in such a manner, it will exacerbate the imbalance in the economic structure.

In the short term, there is not much momentum to drive the Bitcoin price significantly higher. Everyone should be cautious and avoid blindly following the trend to buy on the rise. It is advisable to operate more conservatively.

Operational Suggestions

Consider positioning around 111700 and 112500, with an initial target towards 109800; if it breaks this level, then continue down to around 107500.

September 3rd ETH Analysis

Since the price has retreated from the previous high, it is currently below the key mid-level and gradually approaching the lower support level of 4252. From the MACD indicator, both DIF and DEA are operating below the zero axis, with DIF consistently staying low compared to DEA, clearly indicating that the current bearish strength is dominant.

Operational Suggestions

You can arrange positions around 4330 and 4360, targeting 4250, with a breakdown looking towards 4180
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September 3rd, Early Morning BTC Analysis

From the four-hour chart, although the price has rebounded after a previous decline, the upper MA144 and MA169 moving averages create a strong resistance area, and the rebound momentum shows a gradual weakening trend. Although the MACD indicator has released a short-term bullish signal, it has not changed the overall bearish technical pattern.

Trading Suggestions

Consider placing short positions around 111000 and 111500, targeting 109800, with a breakdown looking towards 107500
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