【Tonight's Data Sets the Tone for September's Market! Powell Lays Down Key Directional Indicators】

Tonight at 8:15 PM, the United States will announce the August ADP employment data (commonly referred to as 'little non-farm'), with market forecasts at 65,000, a significant drop from the previous value of 104,000; immediately following at 8:30 PM, the weekly initial jobless claims will also be released, expected at 230,000, remaining basically flat with the previous value. Even more importantly, the 'non-farm employment data' + unemployment rate will be published at the same time tomorrow night — these two sets of data are all potential 'game changers' for the market.

Why are these data points more closely watched than celebrity gossip? The core reason lies with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. He has recently made it clear: the current economic downturn risks are increasing, and as soon as there is any sign of a 'weak' job market, it could directly ignite expectations for interest rate cuts, even leading the market to fantasize about a 'single rate cut of 50 basis points' — such an aggressive scenario was unthinkable last year.

Next, I will share my core viewpoints to help clarify the logic:

- Poor data = favorable for the crypto world? The logic is straightforward: employment data collapse → Federal Reserve urgently initiates interest rate cuts → US dollar weakens → hot money flows into Bitcoin and other risk assets. Refer to the historical market where BTC surged 8% in a single day after the June non-farm data collapse; if tonight's ADP data falls below 65,000, it is highly likely to replicate this surge.

- Beware of the 'expectation trap': Currently, the market has already bet on interest rate cuts; if the data turns out to be unexpectedly strong (for example, ADP > 70,000), it may directly backfire on risk assets in the short term, and BTC dropping to $60,000 is not out of the question.

Now, let’s discuss Powell's 'balancing act': on one hand, he fears that the tariff war will drive up inflation, while on the other hand he worries that the job market may cool too quickly; he often says it's a 'difficult situation', but his actions are very honest — as soon as the data turns negative, he immediately shifts to a dovish stance.

Let me give you a straightforward example: last month, the non-farm data unexpectedly bombed, and BTC surged by $3,000 within an hour, while ETH also rose by 20%. If history repeats itself this time, players who leveraged to chase highs may take off, but high-leverage contracts could also 'liquidate' in an instant amidst volatility; risk and opportunity always coexist.

Finally, let’s emphasize: tomorrow night's non-farm data is the 'ultimate judgment'! If you want to monitor the market in real-time and hear my breakdown of the data logic, comment 'hedging' in the comment section, and tonight I will go live to guide everyone in monitoring the situation — remember, market movements often explode suddenly during consensus splits.