天道无常

Position management or technical chart analysis, candlestick analysis, referring to volume and price to determine entry and exit timing. If you don't understand, you can communicate with each other #巨鲸动向 #币安Alpha上新

Yesterday, Bitcoin reached a new short-term high of 97895, encountering resistance and slightly retreating near 98000. The area around 98000 is close to the 0.618 retracement of the previous drop from 109000 to 74000, which is also an important resistance level. This blog believes that the probability of breaking through here and going above 100000 is very low.

From the 4-hour trend perspective, the MACD is about to form a death cross here. We'll observe whether today's MACD will form a death cross; if it does, it will trigger a short-term pullback, targeting around 91000.

Looking at the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is currently around 90800, and the daily MACD has already converged. Unless a significant bullish candle appears here, the MACD is also likely to form a death cross later; technically, the probability of a pullback is high.

Since holding a short position naturally has a liquidation price, while holding a long position in spot does not have a liquidation price, this blog also suggests that it's safest to buy low in the spot market. However, if you must short, remember to set a stop-loss; generally, my stop-loss is 1000 points above the opening price.

From the news perspective, there are indications that the U.S. is going to negotiate with us, so be prepared for a protracted battle; negotiations won't go smoothly.

The mid-term view for buying low remains; after mid-June, the probability of Bitcoin reaching new highs is greatest, as there will be interest rate cuts and technical resonance, so patience is needed. It would be best if it could drop to a low point. Looking back now, many regret not buying the dip at 74000. But at that time, including myself, we only saw a short-term bottom and never expected such a large increase; as for whether it can drop back to 74000 later, I can't say at this moment, I can only observe where this wave stabilizes.

Summary:
1. Observe whether Bitcoin's MACD forms a death cross today; if it does, it will trigger a short-term pullback, initially looking at around 91000.
2. The mid-term buying low strategy for Bitcoin still requires waiting.

Yesterday, Bitcoin's icon chose to break above the range, reaching around 97450 at its highest. After breaking above the range, this blog did not execute any trades, missing out on this two to three thousand point opportunity. From 94500, there is roughly a 3000 point difference. The reason for not trading after the breakout is that the upper space is not large, and the risk-reward ratio is very low. The pressure levels on the daily and weekly charts are between 97000 and 99000. There were also many trapped positions at this level previously.

Currently, from a 4-hour perspective, although there is a MACD golden cross, due to the MACD death cross on the 1-hour level, there will be a short-term pullback here. However, it is important to note that if Bitcoin declines and the 4-hour MACD crosses down again, it will create a top divergence icon, triggering a wave of correction. Therefore, it is better to continue observing.

From the daily chart, the 20-day line has reached 89600. Currently, after breaking the range, the daily trend is also bullish icon, but it needs to continue to rise to keep the MACD from crossing down. We will continue to observe in the next couple of days. If the weekly chart closes positively this week icon, it will have risen for 4 weeks, and next week will be a turning point week.

After breaking the range here, as it rises, many people will likely feel anxious, thinking they will miss out. According to the range breakout trading strategy, it is possible to chase long positions on the upward breakout, but the stop-loss should be placed above the range. This is how short-term trading works; follow the breakout with a stop-loss. For medium-term trading, one must consider the risk-reward ratio, whether the upper space has enough cushion, and whether the downside correction space is larger than the upside space.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin breaks above the range, expecting a final rise, with upper daily and weekly pressure levels at 98000 to 99000.
2. Medium-term buying on dips requires continued waiting.
3. Short-term 1-hour level has a pullback and consolidation demand.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon fluctuated around 94,500 with a few hundred points up and down, still operating within the range. In the past few days, I have repeatedly emphasized that there is not much space above the current position, with a maximum upward space of 2,000 to 3,000 points. Only after a subsequent pullback will the risk-reward ratio be high. The current viewpoint remains unchanged; at this position, we continue to wait and will not enter the market unless it goes down.

From a daily perspective, Bitcoin has been in a sideways trend for more than 8 days and is about to choose a direction. Let’s wait a little longer here; if the market maker induces buying, it may rise to between 96,000 and 98,000.

From a 4-hour view, the MACD is returning to the zero axis, still operating within the range of 92,000 to 95,600. Today is the last trading day of April, and it has been determined that the monthly line will close positive, so there is a high probability that Bitcoin will close with a negative monthly line in May.

On the weekly chart, this week is the 4th week of the rebound, and next week is expected to be a reversal week. If it can drop again and go back down to around 80,000, we can wait for the indicators to stabilize before entering the market for a new high trend after mid-June. For now, let’s wait a little longer.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is still operating within a short-term range and is about to break the balance of the box. If it breaks upwards, be cautious of a quick drop after inducing buying.
2. The cost-performance ratio for medium-term layout at the current position is very low, continue to wait for the subsequent pullback.

Yesterday, Bitcoin's icon slightly fell back to 92,800 but then rose, peaking at 95,630. Overall, it is still within the range of 92,000 to 95,600. The recent strength of Bitcoin has not declined mainly because MicroStrategy icon company invested $1.4 billion at a cost of over 92,000 to buy Bitcoin.

Since Bitcoin has formed a range, short-term operations are also simple. If it breaks above the range, lightly betting long, the stop-loss point is 1,000 points below the range at 94,500, and the take-profit is between 97,000 and 98,000, which offers relatively small space. If it breaks down below the range, the stop-loss is 93,000.

On the daily chart, the 20-day line has reached around 88,200. If it chooses to break down from the range, the first target will be near the 20-day line.

From a weekly perspective, it has rebounded for 4 weeks from 74,000, so next week is likely to be a turning week. This blog believes that the probability of Bitcoin declining afterwards is quite high; the weekly structure lacks a retest, and medium-term investors should continue to wait.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is operating within a short-term range, waiting to break the range balance.
2. It is expected that next week will be a turning week for Bitcoin, with a high probability of starting a decline.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon fluctuated around 94,000, moving a few hundred points up and down. Overall, it still remains within the range of 92,000 to 95,600. My viewpoint here hasn't changed; the upward space is at most around 3,000 points, which is very limited. For medium-term investors looking to buy on dips, the risk-reward ratio at this position is too low. Even if it manages to break through 98,000, the actual return on spot would only be about 4%. If it later retraces down to 84,000 (the specific retracement level will be assessed later), and considering interest rate cuts in mid to late June, it could reach around 110,000 in the second half of the year, providing nearly 30,000 points of space. Even for spot, that would mean nearly a 35% return, so medium-term investors need to be patient and wait a bit.

Currently, the 4-hour and 1-hour MACD are in a death cross state. From a technical standpoint, a short-term pullback is needed here, but the major players have not allowed the price to drop too much and are still operating within the range, so we will wait for the major players to break this balance.

On the daily chart, after rising for seven consecutive days, it has not continued to make new highs in the past two days, and the MACD histogram shows a narrowing trend. If it breaks down from the range, the MACD on the daily chart will form a death cross, indicating that this round of daily rebounds will come to an end. Currently, the 20-day moving average is around 87,600, and the expectation is that after it breaks down from the range, the first target will be to test the support of the 20-day moving average.

On the weekly chart, if we want the weekly MACD to form a golden cross, a strong upward movement is necessary, but the probability of a strong upward movement here is too low, and neither the news nor the technical aspects support it. The weekly structure needs to retrace once more.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is currently operating within the short-term range of 92,000 to 95,600, and I believe there is a high probability of a downward breakout from this range in the future.
2. The opportunity for medium-term investors to buy Bitcoin on dips has not yet arrived; we need to continue waiting.

Due to the weekend factor, Bitcoin fluctuated in a narrow range of a few hundred points around 94,500 yesterday. From the 4-hour trend, after the MACD death cross here, there was no pullback, but it continued to operate sideways within the range. It must be said that the market maker is very strong. Currently, the range is between 92,000 and 95,400, with two levels of resistance at 96,000 and 98,000 above, leaving very little upward space.

Today is the last day of this week, and a bullish weekly close is inevitable. It has already rebounded for 3 weeks, and it is expected that it will take at most 2 more weeks of consolidation before it comes down. In terms of the weekly chart, one more pullback is needed; the probability of going directly above 100,000 and breaking new highs is very low.

Currently, the daily chart shows a bullish trend, with a small bearish candle yesterday. If there is another bullish candle, it would be an 8-day consecutive rise; however, the probability of a pullback increases. The 20-day moving average is rising quickly, currently around 87,000, and it will continue to rise. If there is a pullback later, first look for support near the 20-day moving average.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is still in the range between 92,000 and 95,500; for medium-term investors, the cost-effectiveness of buying low here is not high, better to wait.
2. Bitcoin needs to break below 92,000 to initiate a pullback; continue to wait.

Yesterday, Bitcoin reached a new short-term high of 95,758 points, encountering resistance at 96,000 and making a slight pullback. The daily line has had 7 consecutive positive days, and today is a short-term turning point. We can see that the current upward momentum of Bitcoin has slowed down, with 96,000 to 97,000 being an important resistance level on the weekly chart. My viewpoint remains the same; the current market does not have reversal conditions, and reaching around 98,000 would be quite impressive.

Currently, the 1-hour MACD is in a death cross, and the 4-hour MACD is also in a death cross state, indicating a short-term pullback. If there is a short position, then the stop-loss should be set at 96,000, and it's suitable to trade with a light position.

For medium-term investors in spot trading, the current position is not suitable for a low-entry strategy, with less than 3,000 points of upside potential, while a downside could be as much as 10,000 points. The risk-reward ratio is not favorable. It's better to continue observing here and wait for Bitcoin to pull back to around 80,000 before considering a low-entry strategy, at which point we will look for specific stabilization levels.

June 18 is the date of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and the market estimates a high probability of interest rate cuts. Therefore, from mid-June onward, Bitcoin is expected to initiate a major rise to new weekly highs, and we should seize the opportunity at that time.

Summary:
1. The opportunity for medium-term low entry in Bitcoin has not yet arrived; it is currently suitable to wait.
2. The short-term has started to pull back; if taking a short position with a light load, the stop-loss should be set at 96,000, and take profit at 92,000 (remember that short-term trading must have a stop-loss awareness). #币安Alpha上新

Yesterday, Bitcoin quickly surged after dropping to around 91660, briefly falling below the range and returning to the range between 92000 and 94500. From a 4-hour perspective, after the MACD death cross here, it did not immediately pull back but instead went through a sideways fluctuation. There is a possibility of breaking below the previous high of 94696, reaching 95000, and then quickly retreating again.

On the daily level, there are 6 consecutive bullish candles. If there is another rise today, it will be 7 consecutive bullish candles, which increases the likelihood of a short-term reversal. On the weekly level, it is currently above the 20-week line at 92200, but it may not hold. If it does not stabilize above 92200 in the coming days and falls back below 92000, then Bitcoin will likely initiate a new wave of correction.

From a wave perspective on the weekly chart,
Wave A fell from 109000 to 74000 over 12 weeks, with a decline of 40000.
Wave B theoretically rises by 20000 or 24000, which is 0.5 times or 0.618 times of the previous drop, targeting between 94000 and 98000 based on the 74000 starting point.
There will also be a subsequent Wave C, which will test the 80000 area again.

According to wave theory as a reference, currently, chasing long positions around 94000 has a low cost-effectiveness ratio. For a mid-term buy on dips, it is better to wait for Bitcoin to fall back to around 80000 for a better opportunity. Additionally, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in June, so it is worth looking forward to a significant rally starting after the rate cut in June.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is still in the range of 92000 to 94500, and there is not much upward space left.
2. If stopping losses on a short position here, set it at 95000.
3. Expect that Bitcoin will test the bottom once more, waiting for a subsequent period to test the bottom for a low buy at #币安Alpha上新 .

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon peaked at 94,696, then slightly retreated. The 4-hour level formed a range between 92,000 and 94,500. After breaking through the range of 83,000 to 86,000, it has risen over 8,000 points from 86,000. This rebound can be considered quite unexpected. News of Trump lowering tariffs and a significant drop in gold has led to a lot of capital flowing in, which is beneficial for Bitcoin.

At the beginning of the month, Bitcoin bottomed out at 74,000 and has since rebounded by over 20,000 points. From a spatial perspective, the rebound is nearly complete, but there are currently no signs of a retreat. There are two important resistance levels above this position at 95,000 and 97,000, and the cost-effectiveness of the upper space is low, so it may be better to wait and observe.

On the 4-hour level, a new range has formed here, similar to the previous one; we just need to wait for the range to be broken. Currently, the 4-hour MACD has not crossed down, so we need to wait a bit longer.

On the daily level, the bullish trend remains, while from the weekly perspective, the probability of Bitcoin going directly up to 100,000 is only 20%, and there is an 80% probability that it will need to retrace once more to the 80,000 level. Currently, the 20-week line is around 92,000, which happens to be the lower edge of the range. Therefore, we should observe whether Bitcoin retreats below 92,000 in the coming days.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin has formed a new range between 92,000 and 94,500, and we currently need to wait and observe.
2. If the range is broken upwards, 95,000 to 97,000 is an important pressure zone, and the cost-effectiveness of chasing long positions is not very high. If the range is broken downwards in conjunction with the 4-hour MACD crossing down, Bitcoin will begin a new bottoming process, which may go below 90,000.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon surged significantly, reaching as high as 93,888. It can be said that after breaking through the range between 83,000 and 86,000, the market makers raised it much more than expected. Initially, it was anticipated that the 20-week moving average around 92,000 would not be easily surpassed, but the market is always right. Since the 4-hour MACD has not crossed downward, there is still upward momentum. If it can break through 94,000, the resistance levels above are 95,000 and 96,000. We will continue to observe whether Bitcoin can stabilize above 92,000 in the next two days.

From a weekly perspective, the probability of a direct reversal to above 100,000 is very low; a pullback is needed again. So when will Bitcoin pull back? As emphasized in the past two days, we need to wait for the 4-hour MACD to cross downward.

As for whether to chase long positions in the short term, this blog believes that the current technical outlook suggests that Bitcoin's rebound is likely not over yet, as indicators and trends have not shown an end, but it is essential to maintain a good stop-loss.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin's rebound has exceeded expectations, and currently, indicators do not show a pullback, with strong resistance levels at 95,000 and 96,000.
2. It is expected that Bitcoin will need to pull back again, but we need to wait for a clear signal, namely the 4-hour MACD cross downward.
3. Be cautious when chasing long positions in the short term, and definitely maintain a good stop-loss.
#加密市场反弹

Yesterday, the big pie icon broke through the 83000 to 86000 range, reaching a high of 88465 before slightly retreating. Currently, the 1-hour MACD has already crossed down, indicating a short-term pullback here. Whether this will directly initiate a new round of correction is possible but needs further observation for confirmation. Next, we will continue to observe whether the 4-hour MACD crosses down; if it does, we will first approach around 83000.

It has been mentioned multiple times that after breaking through the range, there is a high probability this is the last surge. Why do I say this? Let's look at the weekly chart; the weekly MACD has not crossed up and is facing pressure from the 20-week moving average, still in a correction trend. Looking at the monthly chart, it faces pressure from the 5-month moving average. So, can we short here? We need to wait for a clear signal, specifically when the 4-hour MACD crosses down, and then set a stop loss.

Summary:
1. After the big pie breaks through the range, there is still rebound momentum. If the 4-hour MACD does not cross down, then breaking 88500 will lead to the 90000 level; the cost-effectiveness of long positions here is not high, suitable for waiting.
2. It is expected that this week the big pie will encounter resistance and retreat, with the specific condition for the pullback being the 4-hour MACD crossing down.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon slightly retraced to 83949 before rallying. Overall, it still remains within the range of 83000 to 86000. The market maker has been oscillating here for about a week, and a direction choice is imminent. From the daily and 4-hour levels, this blog believes that the likelihood of breaking the box upwards is higher. After breaking 86000, we will look at the range of 87000 to 90000, but specifics still depend on market trends. If going long here, the stop loss needs to be set at 83000.

The daily line is running above the 20-day line at 82900, which indicates that it is still in a bullish trend icon. Last week, the weekly Bitcoin chart closed with a bullish weekly candle, and this week it is expected that Bitcoin will encounter resistance and pull back. We will see how it performs after breaking the box; if it breaks upwards, there is no need to chase the highs because it will likely come down again afterward.

There are benefits to trading within a box; some may high sell and low buy within the range, but it is important to note that once the box is broken, one should not approach it with the same box mindset. Previously, a trading expert suggested always viewing the market as a trending market. Once you get used to small fluctuations within the box, you might miss out on the big trend if it breaks out!!!

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is about to break the balance of the box in the short term, with a long position stop loss at 83000 and a target of 87000 to 90000.
2. It is expected that this week, Bitcoin will start to pull back after reaching a high point.

Yesterday, Bitcoin icon continued to fluctuate within a narrow range, oscillating around 84,500 with a few hundred points of movement. It is currently trapped in a range between 83,000 and 86,000, where it has been consolidating for several days and is about to choose a direction soon. Please be patient.

The daily perspective remains the same, with upward momentum above the 20-day moving average. From a weekly perspective, if it breaks above 86,000, it will move towards the 87,000 to 90,000 range. It is expected that next week will encounter resistance and fall back below 80,000. This is something to be cautious about. When it moves upward, especially as it approaches 90,000, be careful not to chase high prices, as it could easily meet resistance and fall back.

As we enter the weekend, it is expected that Bitcoin's fluctuations will be relatively small.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is waiting to break the 83,000 to 86,000 range.
2. It is expected that Bitcoin will see a rebound high point next week and continue to test the lows.
3. The opportunity for a significant weekly increase in Bitcoin has not yet arrived, and it is currently not suitable to buy at low prices.

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon fluctuated in a narrow range, with fluctuations of only over 1000 points, still within the 4-hour range of 83000 to 86000. We can only wait for the market makers to break the balance of the range.

From a daily perspective, Bitcoin is running above the 20-day line at 82700, indicating potential upward momentum. However, Bitcoin needs to choose to break above 86000 to reach the range of 87000 to 90000. So we are still waiting for a break of the range, but there is also the possibility of a downward breakout, so closely monitor whether the 20-day line at 82700 is breached. If it breaks, it will choose to break downward to test the bottom.

From a weekly perspective, the strong resistance level is near the 20-week line at 92500. This rebound for Bitcoin is approaching its end, and it will likely start to test the bottom again once it gets close to the 20-week line. Therefore, if Bitcoin chooses to break upward next, it is likely to be the final wave of increase, so closely watch for subsequent resistance and pullbacks.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is still in the range of 83000 to 86000 in the short term. Breaking above 86000 would look towards 87000 to 90000, but remember not to chase high prices afterward, as it can easily face resistance and pull back.
2. If Bitcoin breaks below the 20-day line at 82700, then look for below 80000.
3. The Bitcoin rebound is quickly approaching its end, and the weekly trend still needs to test the bottom once.

Are these all scammers? #BTC

Yesterday, the Bitcoin icon rose slightly to 85500 after falling to 83110, then fell back slightly to around 84000 during the night. Overall, the 4-hour level still has Bitcoin in a range between 83000 and 86000, and the market makers have not broken this range balance for now.

From the 4-hour perspective, the MACD is still in a death cross state, and the overall trend remains sideways. To break through the upper range of 86000, a golden cross in the 4-hour MACD is needed. If it falls below the daily 20-day line at 82500, then we will look for support at the 80000 level. In summary, we are currently in a range, waiting for the market makers to break the range balance.

Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin is still operating above the 20-day line at 82500, so we consider this a bullish trend icon. We need to closely monitor the gains and losses around the 20-day line in the next few days. If it holds above the 20-day line, it will aim to complete the final round of this rebound from 87000 to 90000. If it falls below the 20-day line at 82500, a new round of bottom exploration will begin, potentially going below 80000, so we need to be patient.

From the weekly level, it is expected that this week will encounter resistance. The 20-week line is about to head downwards, remaining in a larger correction cycle, so we anticipate a pullback for bottom exploration starting next week, likely lasting around 2 weeks, at which point we will reassess. In summary, the current weekly Bitcoin is not positioned, and low buying in the spot market needs to wait for further corrections.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is still operating in a 4-hour level range between 83000 and 86000 in the short term. A golden cross in the 4-hour MACD will lead to an upward breakout, targeting 87000 to 90000.
2. If it falls below the 20-day line at 82500, we will look for a downward breakout and see what happens below 80000.
3. The weekly correction cycle is not over; mid-term low buying still needs to wait.

$BTC currently appears to continue to probe down to 7.9, and this bottoming process will continue for a while!

Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the upper bound of the 4-hour range at 86100, reaching a high of 89490, and then quickly fell back, encountering resistance at the 60-day moving average, resulting in a death cross on the 1-hour MACD, indicating a decline; we can say it was a false breakout.

Since Bitcoin has not stabilized at the range and currently shows an expanding death cross on the 4-hour MACD, it is entering a short-term retracement trend. We will observe whether the 20-day moving average at 82500 can hold in the coming days. If it breaks below, we will start to test the support at the 80,000 level, which may lead to an early entry into a retracement cycle.

In the short term, the market dynamics are constantly changing; we must closely follow the market. I also mentioned in this blog a couple of days ago that if we break through 87000 and can stabilize, we will challenge the vicinity of 90,000. However, the dealer has made a false breakout on the 4-hour chart, and the trend is weaker than expected. So here we wait for a golden cross on the 4-hour MACD before making a low-entry; for now, we should observe more.

Regarding the medium-term trend, I have also emphasized that we currently do not have the conditions to enter an upward trend on the weekly chart; we need to wait, probably until June.
As for whether we are prematurely entering a new major correction, if it breaks below 80,000, I believe it depends on whether the 20-day moving average at 82500 breaks effectively. If it does not break, then there is still hope to reach 87000 to 89000 this week, so we will monitor the 20-day moving average closely.

Summary:
1. Bitcoin is starting to probe for a bottom in the short term; closely monitor the 20-day moving average at 82500.
2. If the 20-day moving average does not effectively break this week, there is hope to reach 87000 to 89000, combined with the golden cross on the 4-hour MACD for short-term longs.
3. If it breaks below the 20-day moving average, we will probe for a bottom again, and breaking below 80,000 is highly probable.

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