Yesterday, Bitcoin reached a new short-term high of 97895, encountering resistance and slightly retreating near 98000. The area around 98000 is close to the 0.618 retracement of the previous drop from 109000 to 74000, which is also an important resistance level. This blog believes that the probability of breaking through here and going above 100000 is very low.

From the 4-hour trend perspective, the MACD is about to form a death cross here. We'll observe whether today's MACD will form a death cross; if it does, it will trigger a short-term pullback, targeting around 91000.

Looking at the daily chart, the 20-day moving average is currently around 90800, and the daily MACD has already converged. Unless a significant bullish candle appears here, the MACD is also likely to form a death cross later; technically, the probability of a pullback is high.

Since holding a short position naturally has a liquidation price, while holding a long position in spot does not have a liquidation price, this blog also suggests that it's safest to buy low in the spot market. However, if you must short, remember to set a stop-loss; generally, my stop-loss is 1000 points above the opening price.

From the news perspective, there are indications that the U.S. is going to negotiate with us, so be prepared for a protracted battle; negotiations won't go smoothly.

The mid-term view for buying low remains; after mid-June, the probability of Bitcoin reaching new highs is greatest, as there will be interest rate cuts and technical resonance, so patience is needed. It would be best if it could drop to a low point. Looking back now, many regret not buying the dip at 74000. But at that time, including myself, we only saw a short-term bottom and never expected such a large increase; as for whether it can drop back to 74000 later, I can't say at this moment, I can only observe where this wave stabilizes.

Summary:

1. Observe whether Bitcoin's MACD forms a death cross today; if it does, it will trigger a short-term pullback, initially looking at around 91000.

2. The mid-term buying low strategy for Bitcoin still requires waiting.