Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the upper bound of the 4-hour range at 86100, reaching a high of 89490, and then quickly fell back, encountering resistance at the 60-day moving average, resulting in a death cross on the 1-hour MACD, indicating a decline; we can say it was a false breakout.

Since Bitcoin has not stabilized at the range and currently shows an expanding death cross on the 4-hour MACD, it is entering a short-term retracement trend. We will observe whether the 20-day moving average at 82500 can hold in the coming days. If it breaks below, we will start to test the support at the 80,000 level, which may lead to an early entry into a retracement cycle.

In the short term, the market dynamics are constantly changing; we must closely follow the market. I also mentioned in this blog a couple of days ago that if we break through 87000 and can stabilize, we will challenge the vicinity of 90,000. However, the dealer has made a false breakout on the 4-hour chart, and the trend is weaker than expected. So here we wait for a golden cross on the 4-hour MACD before making a low-entry; for now, we should observe more.

Regarding the medium-term trend, I have also emphasized that we currently do not have the conditions to enter an upward trend on the weekly chart; we need to wait, probably until June.

As for whether we are prematurely entering a new major correction, if it breaks below 80,000, I believe it depends on whether the 20-day moving average at 82500 breaks effectively. If it does not break, then there is still hope to reach 87000 to 89000 this week, so we will monitor the 20-day moving average closely.

Summary:

1. Bitcoin is starting to probe for a bottom in the short term; closely monitor the 20-day moving average at 82500.

2. If the 20-day moving average does not effectively break this week, there is hope to reach 87000 to 89000, combined with the golden cross on the 4-hour MACD for short-term longs.

3. If it breaks below the 20-day moving average, we will probe for a bottom again, and breaking below 80,000 is highly probable.