Artisco

$BNB
Comparing 2 strong rivals of ETH. I still prefer to hold BNB long-term while using ETH for trading and short hedging. When looking at BTC's dominance increasing => ETH is heavily dumped, while BNB shows much less decline, indicating its strength. Aside from that, among the top coins, BNB is the only non-American coin; CZ denies Chinese nationality, but the BNB Dev team is entirely Asian, which is quite different from coin manipulation teams based in America.

🪙 1. XRP (Ripple)
Attribute Information
Maximum supply ✅ 100,000,000,000 XRP (100 billion) – HAS A LIMIT
Current circulating supply ~55 billion XRP
Locked amount ~40–45 billion XRP held by Ripple in escrow wallets, gradually released according to a fixed schedule each month
Is there inflation? ❌ NO. XRP CANNOT be mined, the total supply was created initially and will not increase.

✅ Conclusion: XRP has a fixed supply, not infinite.

🪙 2. BNB (Binance Coin)
Attribute Information
Initial supply 200,000,000 BNB
Maximum supply ❌ NOT fixed in the traditional sense, but there is a target to reduce it to 100 million BNB through a coin burning mechanism
Periodic burn Binance uses profits to buy back & burn BNB each quarter (including both auto-burn and real-time burn)
Inflation mechanism? ❌ No. No new BNB is created. Only reduction → deflationary

✅ Conclusion: BNB is not infinite – rather it is "controlled deflation".

🧠 In summary:
Coin - Unlimited supply?
XRP ❌ No Fixed supply of 100B
BNB ❌ No Supply is gradually decreasing through burn

$ETH
Preparing for the closing of the July candle, we have mid-term scenarios based on the following conditions:

✔ Probability table for August 2025 scenarios (in order of probability):
🟢 Scenario 1: Pullback then continue to rise; the August candle has a lower wick (pullback to the ~3400–3500 range) then closes higher or approaches the July high. Probability 50% if the first week of the following month is a light red candle testing EMA7-21 weekly successfully. Negative funding when bouncing increases the probability to 90%.
🟢 Scenario 2: Continue to rise without pullback Opening price next month >3700, then continue pumping, without significant lower wick (max -100$). Probability 30% if the first week of the following month is a strong green candle, with no clear selling pressure, funding remains positive + OI increases slowly.
🟡 Scenario 3: Indecisive candle – starting distribution The next month's candle has a small body, upper wick → indicates struggle and distribution. Probability 20% of selling pressure appearing right from the first week, if the first week rises too quickly in the early days, caution is needed.

🔍 Detailed assessment by timeframe:
Monthly Frame:
- Breakout from the sideways base 2 months ago
- The monthly candle has not retracted → buying pressure is dominating
- EMA7–EMA21–EMA99 monthly is still very far from the current price → no need for an early test

Weekly Frame:
- The breakout candle for the week closes above all EMA7,21,99 → confirms mid-term reversal
- Weekly RSI is entering the overbought zone at 83.88 → may have light profit-taking next week
- KDJ touches the 100 zone, OBV increases but is slightly "tilted" → signs of potential technical pullback

If this monthly candle closes < 3700 → all of the above scenarios need to be reassessed (higher distribution potential)

$ETH
Today's analysis is: Meo has no analysis at all

Just an image of me sitting and waiting for the Short ETH signal
The most frustrating thing is the ability to pump in a way that doesn't allow for proper correction points to enter 😂 the price hangs in the air and just touches EMA9 it shoots up 😐

$ETH

$Jager

Hôm qua sau khi nhận thấy mình bị MM ETH lừa cho nhả hàng sớm từ vùng 4k2 (hơi cay tý) nên vào soi 1 trong những con hàng Alpha mình soi đã rất lâu mà chưa vào đó là Jager, cay quá thấy xả chưa gãy nên cắt 2 tháng cafe làm đúng 146B Jager (Để mình đi trước xem tháng sau cổ tức phát thế nào nhé, mình mua luôn ở Alpha)

Ta cùng phân tích lý do và ưu nhược điểm nhé, trong alpha thì rủi ro luôn rất lớn -> chống chỉ định Allin, kèo xổ số

🔹 Ưu điểm:
– Việc xuất hiện trên Binance Alpha trên cơ sở ăn theo BNB là một bước lọc ban đầu, cho thấy dự án đã qua kiểm duyệt cơ bản, không phải scam trắng trợn bôi nhọ hình ảnh BNB

FDV ≈ Market Cap – rất tốt trong đống Alpha, hiếm có. Điều này giúp giá ít bị áp lực xả do token unlock.

Cộng đồng holder cứng – Nhiều người nắm giữ số lượng lớn và tuyên bố hold dài hạn, giảm áp lực bán lẻ tẻ. Cũng là nhược điểm dễ có 1 pha thanh lọc rũ bỏ 20-30% Holder

Cơ chế burn/kiểm soát nguồn cung (theo thông tin dự án) – Nếu vận hành đúng, đây có thể là yếu tố đẩy giá về dài hạn, giống mô hình BNB.

Định vị theo hướng utility token – Có tiềm năng trở thành token thanh toán hoặc phí cho một mảng riêng của hệ sinh thái Binance (giống BNB thời 2017).

🔹 Nhược điểm:

- Ở Alpha quá lâu – Có thể khiến một số nhà đầu tư mất kiên nhẫn, tạo áp lực xả.

- Khối lượng giao dịch 24H hơi kém: > 10 - 20M thường mới được coi là test Alpha thành công: Chưa đạt

- Market Cap: >20 - 50M chưa đạt

- Dev ẩn danh

🚫 Lưu ý: Chưa tìm thấy chứng cứ rõ nào BNB và Binance đứng sau, Binance chỉ đưa Jager vào Binance Alpha, không có thông cáo chính thức gọi đây là dự án nội bộ

$ETH

Is there anyone available to reply to Mr. Kupo for me? I've been teasing Bro Noname about his 3k9 views and 2xxx for a whole week now, can anyone help? 🥺 Because I haven't said anything about Kupo at all.

I'm blocked now and can't reply, it's too sensitive 😐

$ETH
Waiting from morning until last night to see how the rebound at H1 plays out, but the peak is still higher than the previous peak. Taking profit at the peak is something everyone clearly knows has happened, but the sufficient conditions for a significant technical correction, namely Panic Sell on H4 and a strong peak that can withstand the rebound waves, have not yet occurred.

📌 H1 frame observations:

The buying force has indeed slowed down: green volume is no longer 'smooth' and OBV is flat → the Long side is quickly taking profits at the high area.

The sufficient conditions for a sell-off (panic or genuine breakdown) have still not appeared: there is no long red candle with high volume double to triple the average.

MM seems to be 'letting' retail fight in the small frame, taking advantage of the rebound - short drop waves to sweep both sides' stops.

📅 Important milestones:

Exactly at 8 PM, D3 closes the candle → this is when MM decides the main direction, as closing a 3-day candle is usually a milestone for the medium-term swing/trend. Clearly, D3 still indicates a strong uptrend, but whether a correction will happen remains unclear.

A moderate upper shadow and closing red (still above or at EMA9) → signals that the buying force is starting to weaken, the Long side is taking profits, and there is a high chance of entering a technical correction wave in a larger frame.

A short upper shadow, closing green → trend remains intact, the market is just oscillating to sweep early shorts.

With the current structure, if D3 closes red:

H1 and H4 will immediately change the structure from 'higher peak' to 'lower peak' in the next rhythm.

The first adjustment target is usually EMA21 D1 (around ~3.9–4.0k currently).

Conclusion: The area 4150-4180 is currently a quite strong support, Long scalp is still relatively safe from this area; if there is a dump, there will be a H1 rebound wave with a gradually lower peak structure... When that happens, the Short structure will then look for an entry.

$ETH
The phantom heartbeat we've been waiting for all morning is finally here, my friends.

If it breaks the peak again, then take your hands off the Short button, okay?

There's only one green H1 candle that hasn't closed yet, it's just a little bit of a head cut, but both sides are liquidating like mushrooms after the rain. Let's keep watching, my friends.

$ETH
Quick update on the H1 rebound rhythm on Monday morning:

Very tense, although OBV has increased again, the peak of 4350 has been rejected twice.
If after that H1 returns to the ema21 support and bounces back but does not break the peak + the next red candle closes solidly below ema21, then we can consider a short structure.

The current picture is giving quite clear signals to prepare for a short scenario according to the staircase structure:

The 4,350 zone has been rejected 2 consecutive times → the temporary peak has been confirmed.

OBV is still creeping up but not strong enough to break through, meaning the buying force is not really overwhelming.

If EMA21 H1 supports and the bounce back does not break the newly created peak → this is a sign that the Long side is exhausted.

A solid red candle closing below EMA21 H1 will be a confirmation signal for the first probing short order. SL at the peak Target H4 breaks ema9 if it shows a bounce back with H4 closing above ema9 consider locking in 50% of the probing order early.

If H4 breaks Ema9, the next rebound up to EMA9 H4 that gets rejected → the second order.

A deeper rebound up to EMA21 H4 that still gets rejected → the third order.

Target: retest strong support on the D1, D3 frame.

🚫 Important note for Short: Absolutely do not enter if it breaks ema9 and the red Vol is not greater than MA10, do not enter early if H1 is still above ema9 (the closing price is what counts) all Short orders will be dangerous if H1 can still hold Ema9. The first probing order is very important, need to monitor closely, if H4 bounces back above ema9 then cut early.

Good early orders will create a nice average entry price without getting caught in an all-in order right from the start.

$ETH
Yesterday, according to the update post about my situation, it really was a pump wave but it has weakened.

And this is the H1 pullback testing the peak, one of the scenarios I listed. Let's follow along to see what scenarios come next.

1. H4 – Testing the lifting force

Today's H4 candle bounced perfectly from EMA9 → confirming that dynamic support is still effective.

Long green candle, long wick, closing above EMA9 → momentum has returned after a light sell-off.

However, OBV has not yet surpassed the previous peak → further confirmation of capital flow is needed.

2. H1 – Decisive role

If H1 breaks the peak of 4,331 (even just by the wick) with increasing volume, then the uptrend remains strong → at that point, the recent movement will be considered a strong pullback to gain more strength.

If H1 only reaches the liquidation zone around 4,307 and then reverses with a strong red candle, then it is highly likely that this is just a bull trap sweeping the high short prices → moving into the distribution phase.

3. Important observation levels

4,307 – 4,331: the decisive zone determining the significance of the pullback.

Closing the H1 candle above 4,331 → the uptrend continues, nearest target around 4,370.

Closing the H1 candle below EMA9 (currently around 4,246) after touching 4,307 → high probability of starting distribution.

P.S: Yesterday, some bros predicted the price to be around 3k9, so I closed all my positions when I saw H1 breaking EMA21 from the accumulation zone of 3k5 because sometimes the dump happens without testing the peak, and this morning I saw the H4 testing the lifting force was so beautiful that I scalped a little (I advise everyone not to do what I did, scalping is only good if the volume is small for monitoring purposes).

$ETH
Important update:

1. Signs of weakening

After 3 consecutive days of increase, H1 has to test EMA21 for the first time → this is the first signal indicating that the buying pressure is no longer as smooth as the previous push phase.

OBV does not create a new peak while the price creates a peak → an early warning about the cash flow not supporting the next breakout.

RSI cools down quickly after hitting the overbought zone → reflecting a slowdown in buying force.

2. Two tests of EMA21

Test 1: The price bounced back quite quickly and strongly, confirming that EMA21 still plays a dynamic support role.

Test 2: On August 10, continue to observe the behavior to have the following scenarios

If this time it bounces back and does not break the previous peak (4.331), while a red H1 candle appears closing below both EMA9 and EMA21, then the structure will tilt towards Phase D of Wyckoff distribution. At that point, look for the red knife as in the example on the wall, consider taking profit or not wanting to release inventory -→ trigger Short to hedge Spot.

3. Important scenarios

Continuation bullish (≈ 40%): Price bounces from EMA21, surpasses EMA9, breaks the peak of 4.331 and maintains rising OBV.

Starting Phase D distribution (≈ 60%): The next candle shows the price bounces through EMA9 but does not break the peak (sign of a hard peak being rejected) H1 immediately closes below EMA21, high volume, OBV decreases → confirming that selling pressure is dominant.

$ETH
Wow, this is the 4th time ETH is approaching the upper Bollinger Band.. Holding my breath, in 21 days if this month's candle doesn't get cut off, and if there is a correction, please don't break strongly below 3k to start a new cycle like BTC and BNB, my friends 😕

Currently, the monthly candle just touched the upper Bollinger Band (UP ~ 4.335) and still has its head intact — it hasn't been sold back creating a long wick.

The issue is that there are still 21 days left to close the candle, so:

If the price can stay above ~4,200 and there isn't a strong sell-off, the chance of closing the monthly candle with a large body + an intact head will be very high → a clear breakout signal on the monthly timeframe.

But if in the next 21 days there is a correction back to the MB (mid band ~ 2.976) or the EMA21 monthly, then the head of the candle will get cut off and form a pattern similar to previous months (long wick above).

Key levels to watch closely:

4.335 – Upper BB, if it breaks and closes above it will create a “breakout candle.”

4.110 – 4.200 – The area to hold the head of the candle; if it breaks, the probability of getting cut off is much higher.

Similarly, a correction will come soon enough. The issue is whether D3 will break support or not? Coincidentally, it is also the 4100-4200 area? If there are clear reversal signs on H1 and H4, then it will be a good point to add more.

$ETH
Water rises to where Short goes up to 😑

I say brothers Short must be extremely patient.

A sweep down to 4180 then shoot up to take out the SL of those Longs and keep the peak to lure more Longs and Shorts on both ends is too reasonable, not breaking the structure at all.

ETH still keeps flying while the weak Long/Short orders of the sardines still die as usual.

$ETH
Quick assessment

Today's context must be very cautious because the August view has already surpassed the July price peak, if there is no historical breakout of this scale, the price could collapse at any moment.

1. About yesterday's pump
H4 frame: strong breakout, long candle body, closing above EMA9/EMA21 clearly. High volume, OBV sustained upward trend -> confirms real buying power.
H1 frame: after reaching the peak of 4,070, it slightly corrected back to EMA9, maintaining the upward structure and not breaking EMA21 -> no signs of large sell-off yet.
This is a “preemptive” pump in the upward trend of the month, but the speed is a bit fast compared to the previous price base -> likely to create a pullback to test EMA9 or even EMA21 on the H4 frame before continuing.

2. Relating to the August candle
The current month candle has surpassed 4,000 and is approaching the monthly peak (4,109), but the body is still smaller than July -> fitting the scenario of “weaker green than last month.”
However, if this momentum is maintained and the month closes above 4,050–4,080, then although “weaker,” it still confirms the breakout of the EMA9/EMA21 area of the month -> mid-long term bullish inclination.

3. Possible probabilities
- Continue to pump beyond 4,110, with H4 maintaining above EMA9 -> could create an early FOMO to close the week strongly. This scenario is dangerous as the pump could easily lose momentum, probability 35%
- Pullback to test EMA9 H4 (3,950–3,960) before moving on. Higher likelihood because it needs to reset the H1 RSI index (currently ~62) and reduce OBV heat. This is a strong pump scenario opening a new cycle, probability 45%
- Create a short-term peak, returning to EMA21 H4 (~3,840). This will only happen if a long red H4 candle appears, OBV breaks strongly, and funding remains positive >0.01 continuously. This will cause the month candle to narrow its body. Probability 20%.

$ETH

$BTC

Hello ETH 4k let's go guys 😃

This afternoon, I really predicted a lucky move, ETH was waiting for Ema9 to pull up just close enough to break out 😂

Those who are short again pulled up saying short at 4k1 is not the peak yet, let's continue to hold on to profits.

At this point, my view is that by the end of July looking into August, there will be a weak green candle breaking the July peak, which is now finished. Maybe cut a little to send for the dream of ETH 5k, the rest needs to be observed further.

$ETH $BTC


Looking at the support leg from Ema9 H4 of BTC bouncing up, it really looks smooth.

Now let's wait to see if a similar leg of ETH will rise together with the king and the altcoins, right? 🤔

Today, KOLs are shouting about a breakdown + many negative divergences, but I see that holding the peak is very good -> Necessary for a breakout without losing momentum, D1 may create some indecision with 2 more candles, so entering a new Long position doesn't look very good, just an observation that the timing for a Short is not yet ripe.

$ETH

Quick pump assessment;

Looking at these 2 H4 charts, the breakout last night was quite 'clean' in terms of structure:

Breakout candle: Long body, closing above EMA9/EMA21 clearly, volume higher than the previous base -> real buying power, not just a spike.

RSI(6) ~82 & Stoch K/D both >85 -> entering the overbought zone, so if MM wants to push further, they will usually have to 'lighten up' or go sideways to release heat, lure shorts + sweep long stop-losses.

OBV: Currently rising steadily, no negative divergence → money flow still supports the upward direction.

MACD: The distance from the Signal is widening, momentum remains positive.

Bollinger: Price touches the upper band, bands are expanding quite strongly -> a true breakout, but it may also need 1–2 candles of sideways movement/corrections to avoid 'running out of steam'.

Therefore:

If EMA9 H4 is held after the sideways/correction phase, there is a very high chance MM will use this area as dynamic support to push further.

If it breaks through EMA9 H4 with increased volume -> the possibility of transitioning to a deeper correction phase, towards EMA21 H4 or mid-band Bollinger to reset the force.

I lean towards the scenario:

Sideways for 1–2 H4 candles, forcing RSI to drop.

Lure shorts + sweep long stop-losses.

Hold EMA9 and push further if there is no significant spot selling pressure.

-> Conclusion: The collision zone of H4 with ema9 today will determine whether the pump wave continues or if it will correct towards ema21 or Middle Band boll to reset the force or not?
- If H4 closes red but there is supporting force maintaining the trend, look for entry points on 15m or H1, can surf Long (lock in profits early, tight SL, hold a portion according to the maintained trend)
- If H4 closes significantly red, with large volume losing dynamic support EMA9 (closing below), consider locking in a portion of profits as the major supports D1, D3 are already quite far away.

$ETH

There's a lot of money in the public, isn't there? 😑

The water rises, and you short as it does.
But it's all short with a tight stop loss, quickly trying to catch the peak collapse of a large cycle. It's quite strange, isn't it?

ETH is still holding the peak quite well, my friends; the green H1 candle has completed its task. Just 15 minutes of Spot got pumped unexpectedly, the rest is up to the US session to confirm whether the peak at 3878 is rejected tonight so we can sleep peacefully, my friends. 😂

$ETH

Short position is really strong $ETH just standing at the peak for a bit and the short stop-loss above is clear, but the FOMO Longs are also quite a lot.

Today is really lively 😕 if it still pumps up to 3800 like this, it's a bit surreal, or there's an overwhelming influx of money just enough to support the price against this short-term scalp group cashing out early.

$ETH
1. Analysis of the D3 frame
The recently closed D3 candle is a full-body green candle, with fairly balanced volume and no strong upper wicks: confirming real buying power, not a technical pullback.

EMA9 (3,527) is providing good support, and the price remains above the entire EMA system (9–21–99).

MACD & KDJ are in phase moving up, OBV has not weakened.

D3 confirms the pullback wave has ended, and is starting a new uptrend unless rejected at the old peak.

2. Analysis of the Monthly frame
The current monthly candle has just opened for 7 days and is a quite strong green candle with a long body from the bottom ~2138 up to 3705.

If it closes as it is now or higher (i.e., >3,700), we will have a strong recovery candle at the beginning of August.

✅ Remaining strategy for August (details)

Main entry: Long at the EMA9 D3, D1, W1 area if it tests back with low volume -> enter positions.

Target TP: 4,050–4,180 (monthly peak + breakout range).

Disciplinary SL: Below EMA21 D3 (3,171) or the lowest wick of the nearest D3 candle (3,560).

⚠️ Alternative scenario (30–40% probability):
“MM tests the breakout low again, pulling back to the 3,300–3,500 range to accumulate before going further.”

Conclusion: D3 looks good and the first week of August is expected to close 90% in a nice green, but in the context of not clearing leverage, there will still be many pullbacks from short-term profit-taking from these leveraged positions. The second accumulation phase will still have a high chance of occurring. However, August remains a month to find Long-Spot entries (just short hold, as C is gradually weakening, making August difficult to shine like July).

It must be said that MM drives Long very skillfully, and the Short lure is extremely thick on both sides like this.

Tonight is a sensitive time for the D3 frame, a divine Double Trap sweeping away Long rushing up is highly likely to occur. This area stands still to observe.

If tonight on the 15m chart there are 2-3 continuous green candles just before and at the beginning of the US session -> do not rush into a trade.

After that, a rapid continuous drop on the 15m -> Don't rush to follow Short.

-> After the drop, there will be a quick pullback, coinglass liquidating short-term Long positions completely empty, the following sessions will bounce sluggishly but without resistance -> Follow the train, SL right at the bottom of the bounce.

Breaking from large force coiling zones like H4 H1, 4k is no longer a dream, my friends. Today the market is more active, there are no more articles screaming for ETH 6-7k.

The wave about to arrive will be very strong at those two extremes, my friends remain patient, calm, and alert, do not be lured by a green candle on the 1m chart. Be patient and wait for the right moment, do not be patient holding losses 😂
$ETH

$BTC