$ETH

Quick assessment

Today's context must be very cautious because the August view has already surpassed the July price peak, if there is no historical breakout of this scale, the price could collapse at any moment.

1. About yesterday's pump

H4 frame: strong breakout, long candle body, closing above EMA9/EMA21 clearly. High volume, OBV sustained upward trend -> confirms real buying power.

H1 frame: after reaching the peak of 4,070, it slightly corrected back to EMA9, maintaining the upward structure and not breaking EMA21 -> no signs of large sell-off yet.

This is a “preemptive” pump in the upward trend of the month, but the speed is a bit fast compared to the previous price base -> likely to create a pullback to test EMA9 or even EMA21 on the H4 frame before continuing.

2. Relating to the August candle

The current month candle has surpassed 4,000 and is approaching the monthly peak (4,109), but the body is still smaller than July -> fitting the scenario of “weaker green than last month.”

However, if this momentum is maintained and the month closes above 4,050–4,080, then although “weaker,” it still confirms the breakout of the EMA9/EMA21 area of the month -> mid-long term bullish inclination.

3. Possible probabilities

- Continue to pump beyond 4,110, with H4 maintaining above EMA9 -> could create an early FOMO to close the week strongly. This scenario is dangerous as the pump could easily lose momentum, probability 35%

- Pullback to test EMA9 H4 (3,950–3,960) before moving on. Higher likelihood because it needs to reset the H1 RSI index (currently ~62) and reduce OBV heat. This is a strong pump scenario opening a new cycle, probability 45%

- Create a short-term peak, returning to EMA21 H4 (~3,840). This will only happen if a long red H4 candle appears, OBV breaks strongly, and funding remains positive >0.01 continuously. This will cause the month candle to narrow its body. Probability 20%.