$ETH

Important update:

1. Signs of weakening

After 3 consecutive days of increase, H1 has to test EMA21 for the first time → this is the first signal indicating that the buying pressure is no longer as smooth as the previous push phase.

OBV does not create a new peak while the price creates a peak → an early warning about the cash flow not supporting the next breakout.

RSI cools down quickly after hitting the overbought zone → reflecting a slowdown in buying force.

2. Two tests of EMA21

Test 1: The price bounced back quite quickly and strongly, confirming that EMA21 still plays a dynamic support role.

Test 2: On August 10, continue to observe the behavior to have the following scenarios

If this time it bounces back and does not break the previous peak (4.331), while a red H1 candle appears closing below both EMA9 and EMA21, then the structure will tilt towards Phase D of Wyckoff distribution. At that point, look for the red knife as in the example on the wall, consider taking profit or not wanting to release inventory -→ trigger Short to hedge Spot.

3. Important scenarios

Continuation bullish (≈ 40%): Price bounces from EMA21, surpasses EMA9, breaks the peak of 4.331 and maintains rising OBV.

Starting Phase D distribution (≈ 60%): The next candle shows the price bounces through EMA9 but does not break the peak (sign of a hard peak being rejected) H1 immediately closes below EMA21, high volume, OBV decreases → confirming that selling pressure is dominant.