$ETH

1. Analysis of the D3 frame

The recently closed D3 candle is a full-body green candle, with fairly balanced volume and no strong upper wicks: confirming real buying power, not a technical pullback.

EMA9 (3,527) is providing good support, and the price remains above the entire EMA system (9–21–99).

MACD & KDJ are in phase moving up, OBV has not weakened.

D3 confirms the pullback wave has ended, and is starting a new uptrend unless rejected at the old peak.

2. Analysis of the Monthly frame

The current monthly candle has just opened for 7 days and is a quite strong green candle with a long body from the bottom ~2138 up to 3705.

If it closes as it is now or higher (i.e., >3,700), we will have a strong recovery candle at the beginning of August.

✅ Remaining strategy for August (details)

Main entry: Long at the EMA9 D3, D1, W1 area if it tests back with low volume -> enter positions.

Target TP: 4,050–4,180 (monthly peak + breakout range).

Disciplinary SL: Below EMA21 D3 (3,171) or the lowest wick of the nearest D3 candle (3,560).

⚠️ Alternative scenario (30–40% probability):

“MM tests the breakout low again, pulling back to the 3,300–3,500 range to accumulate before going further.”

Conclusion: D3 looks good and the first week of August is expected to close 90% in a nice green, but in the context of not clearing leverage, there will still be many pullbacks from short-term profit-taking from these leveraged positions. The second accumulation phase will still have a high chance of occurring. However, August remains a month to find Long-Spot entries (just short hold, as C is gradually weakening, making August difficult to shine like July).