Lescas

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🕯️ 4H Candle of the Period – ETHUSDT

🔍 Key Data:
• Open: $3,571.65
• Close: $3,612.00
• High: $3,624.56
• Low: $3,546.00
• Change: +1.13% (moderate rise)
• Range: 2.20%
• Volume: 45,367 ETH
• Candle Type: Inverted hammer / potential rejection candle (prominent lower shadow)

📊 Structural Technical Analysis

🔸 Candle Structure:
• Long lower wick with a close near the high
• Appears after several red candles, touching the lower Bollinger Band and dynamic support at the 25-period MA (pink)
• First green candle after a drop, but body doesn’t break the previous candle’s high, suggesting a technical bounce, not a trend reversal

🔸 Bollinger Bands:
• Price touched the lower Bollinger Band ($3,546) and bounced toward the mid-band, indicating temporary rejection of bearish pressure

🔸 RSI:
• RSI(6): 52.16 → Neutral with a slight upward slope
• RSI(24): 49.58 → Still below 50 → no strong trend, but momentum attempting to recover

🔸 MACD:
• MACD: 10.93 → Still positive but losing strength
• Possible histogram shift → beginning of consolidation phase after the previous bearish move

🔸 Volume:
• Volume above average, showing real market participation in this candle
• Possible institutional support at the key level of $3,546

🌎 International Session Flow

🕒 Late U.S. session → transition to Asia:
• Final moves of the U.S. session
• High activity during this window → strong volume for the hour
• Confirmed rejection at $3,546 with absorption of selling pressure
• Start of the August 6th Asian session
• Asia came in buying, but with structural weakness → failed to break prior resistance at $3,624

🧠 Intuitive Market Insight + Deduction

“The market reacted to a strong technical zone with a rejection candle, but it remains within a broader bearish structure. This bounce is defensive, not offensive.”

• The 4H structure has not been broken to the upside
• RSI and MACD reflect a weak technical bounce, not a trend reversal
• The candle close suggests a temporary slowdown of bearish momentum, not

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🕯️ 4H Candle Close – ETHUSDT

Candle Data:
• Date: 2025-08-05
• Open: $3,568.46
• Close: $3,570.18
• High: $3,611.00
• Low: $3,558.00
• Change: +0.05% (Doji candle)
• Volume: 753.7K ETH
• Candle Type: Small-bodied doji with long wicks

📊 Technical & Structural Reading

🔸 Doji Candle → Sign of Indecision
• Technical rejection at the top ($3,611) → same resistance zone as previous rebound
• Support still defended between $3,555–$3,558
• Price remains within the range block, without breaking the prior bearish structure
• Bollinger Bands contracting → possible volatility expansion ahead

🧭 Indicator Confirmations (4H)

📉 RSI(24): 47.19
• Below the 50 level → no confirmed buying momentum
• Neutral-bearish zone: no divergence, but lacks strength for recovery

📉 MACD: +12.75
• Fast line still above the slow line but flattening out
• Still positive, but at risk of a bearish crossover if no strong upside shift occurs soon

📉 Volume:
• Strong but slightly decreasing
• Still above the MA(10) average → interest remains in the area, but no clear buyer conviction

🌎 Global Market Flow

🕘 Session Opening:
• Opened with slight buying pressure → weak attempt at recovery
• Technical rejection at $3,611, aligning with previous candle resistance zones

🌍 During the Block:
• U.S. session fully active:
• Wall Street sold the bounce
• Institutional rejection at $3,611 suggests large players still leaning bearish
• Long upper wicks reinforce that bulls weren’t allowed to close high

🇺🇸 U.S. Session Reading:
• U.S. did not absorb prior supply — instead, confirmed weakness
• This candle, combined with previous ones, signals exhaustion of the technical bounce

🧠 Interpretation

“A doji in the middle of a bearish structure, following rejection at $3,735 and confirmed institutional selling during the U.S. session, is not balance — it’s a warning.”

• The market shows clear signs of buyer fatigue
• Support defense lacked conviction — more like a last stand than a stronghold
• All signs point to this being a pause before a potential next bearish leg

🔮 Upcoming Scenarios (Macro)

🟥 Preferred Bearish Scenario
• Trend confirmed if:
• $3,555 support breaks with a solid-bodied candle
• MACD begins turning bearish in upcoming candles
• Bearish Targets:
• $3,528 (0.236 Fib)
• $3,445 (prior liquidity zone)
• $3,353 (recent local low)

🟩 Alternative Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
• Would require:
• Close above $3,611
• Rising volume
• RSI breaking above 50
• No current evidence supports this scenario

✅ Operational Conclusion

Factor Reading
Macro Trend Confirmed Bearish
Current Candle Doji of indecision → more bearish than neutral
Volume Still strong, but losing momentum
U.S. Reaction Sold the bounce
Strategy Maintain short or wait for next candle to confirm bearish continuation entry

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🕯️ 4H Candle
• Open: $3,672.58
• Close: $3,568.46
• High: $3,678.89
• Low: $3,555.00
• Change: –2.84%
• Volume: 2.02M ETH (very high)
• Body/Wick Range: 3.37% (decisive amplitude)

✅ Overall Reading:

This is a strong bearish confirmation candle, characterized by:
• A large red body
• Close below the previous open
• Very high volume — the highest in recent days
• Clear rejection at the key zone $3,680–$3,700, and breakdown of mid-level support at $3,594

📊 Technical Indicators (4H)

📉 RSI
• RSI(24): 47.09
• Clearly downward slope, no bullish divergence signals yet
• Confirms ongoing bearish momentum

📉 MACD
• Still positive (MACD: +18.79), but showing signs of deceleration
• DIF and DEA are starting to converge → potential bearish crossover if pressure continues

📊 Volume
• Volume exceeds MA(10) average and is expanding
• Strong signal of institutional participation pushing price lower

🔍 Session-Based Context Reading

🕕 Asia
• Did not defend the previous upward momentum
• Passive movements, no strong buying pressure → left structural weakness

🌍 Europe
• Confirmed as the trigger for the breakdown
• Strong capital outflow → synchronized institutional selling

🇺🇸 U.S.
• Inherits the bearish momentum and confirms direction — unless a surprise absorption happens near $3,545

🧠 Intuitive & Macro Structure Analysis

📌 Technical Structure (1D & 4H)
• This move perfectly respects the macro bearish structure (1D)
• The recent rally was a technical pullback to the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone
• Rejection at $3,715 confirms the bounce was a distribution phase

📉 Trend
• The primary trend remains bearish
• Current retracement is gaining strength
• Nearest support: $3,528 → $3,510
• Key structural support: $3,445

🧭 Interpretation Summary

Variable Reading
Trend Structural Bearish (1D & 4H)
Momentum Strongly Bearish, backed by volume
RSI Falling, still far from oversold
MACD Positive but decelerating
Session Context Europe leads the drop, Asia passive, U.S. to confirm

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🕯️ 4H Candle Summary

Parameter Value
Open $3,719.41
Close $3,650.40
High $3,720.10
Low $3,646.72
Body Bearish (closed below open)
% Change –1.86%
Volume 645,083.76 ETH

🔍 Technical Reading

🔴 Clear bearish reversal candle (engulfing type)
• Forms after a strong prior uptrend
• Closed below open with a dominant bearish body and minimal lower wick → shows real seller conviction
• The high ($3,720) aligns with technical rejection at the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci zone — a textbook pullback within a bearish structure

📊 Indicators

✅ RSI(6) = 63.10 and declining
• RSI is curving down from overbought territory
• Confirms weakening bullish momentum

✅ MACD = 33.78
• Still positive, but histogram shows clear deceleration
• MACD line is beginning to curve downward → possible bearish crossover incoming

✅ Bollinger Bands
• Strong rejection from the upper band (Bollinger UP ~ $3,698)
• Candle closes near the middle band → signals momentum shift

🔻 Rising Volume
• Volume is higher than during the previous pullback
• Confirms institutional validation of the rejection — not just a weak correction

🧱 Key Structural Zones

Zone Significance
$3,688–$3,720 Validated rejection zone (0.5–0.618 Fib)
$3,609 Immediate support, likely to be tested
$3,557 Bearish confirmation zone
$3,480–$3,460 Target if previous support breaks
$3,352 Structural base of the rebound (last low)

🌎 Inter-Session Context
• Asian session: pushed the rebound with strength
• European session: showed exhaustion, no continuation
• U.S. session: confirmed bearish rejection and sustained selling pressure

🧠 Macro Intuitive Reading
• This move aligns with a classic technical pullback in an unbroken macro downtrend
• The rebound helped “relieve” indicators (MACD, RSI) and attract liquidity at higher levels
• Strong reaction at this zone with volume suggests large players are distributing or initiating shorts
• No break in the macro bearish structure — only a technical retracement with confirmed rejection

📌 Strategic Conclusion

✅ Bearish reversal confirmed on 4H chart
• Strong rejection candle
• RSI turning down from overbought
• MACD losing momentum
• Volume supports the shift

🔽 Technical Outlook
• High probability of a bearish candle sequence toward $3,609 and $3,557
• If that area fails, price could extend to $3,460–$3,480, where a continuation or major rebound decision may occur

$ETH -#bearishmomentum

🟢 1D Chart – Macro Context
• Overall Trend: Despite the recent rebound, we remain within a Fibonacci retracement zone, still inside a possible continuation of the bearish structure.
• Fibonacci: The current bounce is touching the 0.5 level ($3,726). This zone often acts as natural resistance when price is correcting before further downside.
• Daily Volume: Significant (5.3M ETH), confirming institutional interest and market reaction.
• RSI(24): 63.82 — still has room before entering overbought territory, but it’s getting close.
• MACD: While the histogram is easing its negative slope, there’s no confirmed bullish crossover yet. Still in a moderately bearish pressure zone.
• 1D Candle Close: Strong close above the MA7 and near the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This confirms strength in the rebound, but doesn’t invalidate the bearish structure unless price breaks above $3,815 (0.618 Fib).

🟠 4H Chart (1PM–5PM Arizona) – Key Detail of the Rebound
• Candles: Solid bullish candle, large body, no dominant upper wick. Closed at the high of the period, indicating strong momentum.
• MACD: Fast line crossed the slow one sharply — confirms bullish momentum, although histogram is already high (possible short-term overextension).
• RSI(6): 82 — extreme overbought zone, signals potential rejection or short-term correction.
• Volume: Aligned with the bullish move. Rising volume along with price validates the impulse.
• Current Level: Price is testing the MA99 resistance ($3,692), which aligns with the top of the Fibonacci value zone.

🔍 Tactical & Macro-Structural Reading

📌 Signals Still Validating the Macro Bearish Structure:
• The 0.618 Fib level ($3,815) has not been broken — this is the “last line of defense” for bears.
• Daily MACD is still in a bearish phase with no bullish crossover, though weakening.
• The rebound was led by the Asian session, which tends to be less structurally strong than U.S. session-driven moves.
• Daily RSI isn’t yet overbought, but it’s approaching; 4H RSI is already in the extreme zone — this opens the door to profit-taking or short-term reversal.

📌 Signals Validating the Rebound (But Not Yet a Macro Reversal):
• Daily MA7 was broken with strength.
• Daily candle closed above the previous one.
• Daily MACD histogram is easing its downward slope.
• Current 4H candle is printing higher highs and higher lows → 4H structure has turned bullish, but hasn’t broken the 1D framework yet.

🔻 Key Zones for Potential Short Position Scaling (If Following a Macro Bearish Strategy):

Fibonacci Level Price Recommended Action
0.5 $3,726 Already reached – watch for rejection
0.618 $3,815 Ideal zone to scale in with confirmed rejection
0.786 $3,941 Bearish structure invalidated if broken with a strong daily close

🧭 Strategic Recommendation

🔸 If you’re trading with a macro (1D) structural view, this is a critical patience phase.
The rebound hasn’t broken the bearish structure yet, but it’s testing key resistance zones.

🔸 Scale into your short position only if:
• There’s clear rejection between $3,726 and $3,815 (e.g., bearish engulfing, decreasing volume, weakening RSI & MACD).
• You get confirmation on 1H or 4H candles (long upper wicks, reversal signals, bearish MACD cross on 1H).

🔸 Do not close your current short yet, as structural invalidation hasn’t occurred.
But stay fully alert if price breaks above $3,815 with strength.

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🧠 1. 4H Candle Technical Reading

📊 Candle Characteristics:
• Open: $3,646.60
• Close: $3,668.14
• High: $3,716.93
• Low: $3,646.41
• Change: +0.59%
• Volume: 1.14M ETH – high volume, but decreasing compared to the previous candle
• Candle type: Bullish candle with a long upper wick, moderate body, and close below the high
→ Indicates selling pressure at the top zone after the upward move

📐 2. Fibonacci Levels (from $3,940 to $3,352)

Level Price Current Observation
0.382 $3,638.27 Surpassed and retested
0.5 $3,728.59 Current resistance zone
0.618 $3,815.12 Next strong resistance zone
0.786 $3,941.01 Bearish trend invalidated if broken

📌 Current price ($3,680.19) sits between 0.382 and 0.5 Fib — a critical structural decision zone

📅 3. Global Session Dynamics

🌏 Asian Session (5PM–1AM Arizona)
• Start of the bullish rally from ~$3,552 to ~$3,646
• Move driven by rising volume, led by Asia—often more speculative and less solid

🇪🇺 European Session (1AM–9AM Arizona)
• Strong continuation of the move, breaking above MAs (25 & 99) on 4H
• RSI and MACD accelerating into overbought territory
• This was the steepest segment of the rally

🇺🇸 U.S. Session (9AM–1PM Arizona)
• The 4H candle under analysis shows partial reversal with a long upper wick, signaling:
• Profit-taking
• Possible early distribution
• Lower conviction to sustain the rally

📉 4. Technical Indicators (4H)

📈 RSI (6) = 73.36
• Overbought zone, but no divergence yet

📉 MACD = 31.33 (positive and rising)
• Bullish momentum still active, though histogram shows slower acceleration → potential top forming

📊 Volume
• Strong volume in previous candle; current candle shows decreasing volume despite a new high → fatigue signal

🧭 5. Structural Reading + Macro Focus (1D)
• Daily chart still holds a primary bearish structure
• MACD on 1D has not yet crossed bullish
• RSI(1D) still under 60 → no macro reversal confirmed

🔎 6. Intuitive Market Reading
• The rally appears to be a technical correction within a broader bearish move, rather than a genuine reversal
• Large traders are testing resistance levels and delivering liquidity to retail traders buying at the top of the bounce
• The rejection near $3,715–$3,730 aligns with:
• 🔸 MA(99) confluence on 1H and 4H
• 🔸 0.5 Fibonacci retracement
• 🔸 Possible resistance from prior structure

✅ Operational and Tactical Conclusion
• Current zone is ideal to watch for exhaustion or bearish entry signals upon confirmed rejection
• If price consolidates below $3,715–$3,730 with declining volume, it could be an optimal point to scale into a short position
• Key confirmations to wait for:
• Bearish engulfing candle on 1H or 4H
• Increasing red volume
• 1H MACD starting to turn down
• RSI(6) dropping below 70

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🟢 1H Chart

🕯 Candle:
• Open: $3,683.06
• High: $3,716.93
• Low: $3,676.00
• Close: $3,679.58
• Volume: 426K
• Change: –$3.47 (–0.09%)
• Range: 1.11%

📊 Technical Indicators (1H):
• RSI(6): 90.65 ⚠️ (Extreme overbought)
• RSI(12): 83.43 – also overbought
• MACD: Very strong, with DIF: 42.91 and MACD: 12.58, but showing the first red histogram bar
• Volume: Strong, but slightly declining at the close of this candle

🔍 Precise Technical Reading (1H)
1. Vertical rally without pause
• ETH had an explosive move, rising from ~$3,542 to ~$3,716 in 3 hours, with a steep slope
• In such structures, a pullback or technical retracement is common, even if mild or sideways
2. Upper wick and indecision candle
• This candle shows rejection at the top ($3,716.93) and a close below the open
• The small body after a strong rally suggests a pause or partial exhaustion
3. Imminent RSI divergence
• RSI above 90 rarely sustains; RSI(6) is giving a clear signal of short-term exhaustion
• If price tries to make a new high and RSI doesn’t confirm → potential bearish divergence
4. MACD remains strong, but caution ahead
• First red bar on histogram may signal a pause or early warning of reversal—confirmation needed on next candle

📉 Macro Scenario (1D) Remains Active:
• The daily bearish structure has not been invalidated
• Price is still below the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($3,815)
• The current push may be a deep retracement within the macro bearish trend, especially if rejected between $3,728–$3,815

🧠 Tactical Conclusion:

Element Signal
RSI Extreme overbought ⚠️
MACD Strong but starting to turn ⚠️
Current Candle Indecision after strong rally
Volume Strong but declining
Macro Context Still bearish

📌 Recommendation

🧭 Wait for confirmation on the next 1H candle.
• If a bearish engulfing, strong rejection, or drop with volume forms, consider:
• Opening or adding a tactical short with a tight technical stop
• Key short entry zone: $3,728–$3,785 if price rebounds there and forms a reversal pattern

📍 Alerts to Set:
• $3,715–$3,728: if retested with rejection → potential tactical entry
• $3,785–$3,815: major bearish invalidation zone (ideal for shorting if rejection is confirmed)

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🟣 4H Chart
🕯️ Current Candle:
• Open: $3,554.01
• High: $3,663.88
• Low: $3,549.16
• Close: $3,646.59
• Change: +$92.59 (+2.61%)
• Volume: 1.58M ETH
• MACD Histogram: +26.43
• RSI(6): 66+ and rising

🔍 Precise Technical Reading:
1. Strong rebound with minor resistance break ($3,638 – 0.382 Fib)
• The candle broke through the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement with a solid body, which had been acting as a technical resistance zone.
• It also broke above the MA7, MA25, and MA99 on the 4H chart, signaling tactical strength.
• However, it has not yet reached the critical levels of 0.5 Fib ($3,728) or 0.618 ($3,815), which are key to invalidating the 1D bearish structure.
2. High volume but during the Asian session (important context)
• The move happened during the Asian session, which typically lacks structural confirmation due to lower institutional volume.
• The volume was high for that session, suggesting possible manipulation or a short squeeze before the London/New York openings.
3. 4H MACD still indicates a rebound
• Although the histogram is clearly positive and expanding, the DIF and DEA lines are still in the negative zone. No full bullish crossover yet.
• This supports the hypothesis of a technical rebound without a confirmed trend reversal.
4. RSI overbought on 4H
• RSI(6) is now reaching 65–70, typical exhaustion zones in rebounds within bearish trends.
• RSI(12) and (24) are rising but not euphoric. Be cautious of potential divergences if price fails to surpass $3,728.

🟡 1D Structure – Macro Trend
• Remains clearly bearish. The daily candle has not broken the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels.
• The daily MACD still shows a negative histogram with DIF and DEA sloping downward.
• As long as price doesn’t break and close above $3,728 or $3,815, the current rally is considered a technical retracement within a broader bearish trend.

🧠 Analytical Conclusion

✅ Macro bearish trend remains valid.
⏳ The current move is a technical rally in a critical zone, driven by the Asian session, but still lacks macro confirmation of a trend reversal.

📉 Optimal Zones for Short Scaling:
1. $3,660–$3,685: current zone. First tactical validation area for short scaling if rejection is observed.
2. $3,728 (0.5 Fib): if price climbs here weakly and shows a wick/strong rejection, it’s an ideal level for a large short entry.
3. $3,815 (0.618 Fib): the last bearish stronghold. If this breaks, the macro bearish structure is invalidated.

📌 Critical Alert:
• If one of the next 4H candles shows a rejection (bearish engulfing or pinbar) with decreasing volume, a tactical short scale-in may be taken.
• Do not enter impulsively if price keeps rising strongly—wait for exhaustion confirmation.

$ETH #bearishmomentum
🕯️ Analyzed Candle:
• Open: $3,555.00
• High: $3,564.43
• Low: $3,518.36
• Close: $3,550.66
• Change: -$4.34 (-0.12%)
• Volume: 569K ETH (slightly lower than the previous candle)

🔍 Detailed Technical Analysis:
1. “Soft rejection” type candle
• Although the candle is red, it shows a long lower wick and a nearly flat close, indicating a breakout attempt that was absorbed by sellers, but still without clear bearish strength.
2. Critical zone: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement ($3,638)
• The price touched the 0.382 Fibonacci zone and failed to break it. This is key: if this level acts as resistance (as it seems), it could be an optimal point to scale the short position.
• The $3,575 level was the top of the rebound and matches the 0.382, reinforcing its importance as a rejection zone.
3. Moving Averages
• The price is struggling against the MA25 (pink line), and the MA7 is about to cross it, but hasn’t yet.
• MA99 remains far above ($3,688), indicating the rebound is still well below the previous macro trend.
4. 4H MACD
• The histogram shows weak green bars: this confirms it is merely a technical rebound, with no strong bullish crossover yet.
• DIF and DEA are still in negative territory, signaling that overall momentum remains bearish.
5. RSI(6) = 45.61
• It has exited oversold territory but remains in the neutral-low zone, suggesting room for renewed selling pressure.

🟡 1D Chart – Macro Context
• The bearish structure remains intact.
• The current retracement has not yet broken the daily MA7 or the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.
• Daily MACD remains in a bearish crossover with a negative histogram.
• Daily RSI(6) is just bouncing from the 30–35 zone, allowing for a mild correction without changing the overall bearish structure.

🧠 Conclusion & Tactical Plan

✅ Macro trend remains bearish:
• The current move is clearly a technical rebound within a downtrend. No strong reversal signs are present.

📍 Key zones to open or add to a short position:
1. $3,575–$3,585: upper limit of the 4H candle. Rejection here could validate a new entry.
2. $3,638: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. If price reaches this zone and shows weakness (e.g., long upper wick + decreasing volume), it’s an excellent area to scale in.
3. $3,660–$3,690: last critical resistance range before invalidating the bearish structure. Only consider shorting here if there’s a strong rejection.