🧠 1. 4H Candle Technical Reading
📊 Candle Characteristics:
• Open: $3,646.60
• Close: $3,668.14
• High: $3,716.93
• Low: $3,646.41
• Change: +0.59%
• Volume: 1.14M ETH – high volume, but decreasing compared to the previous candle
• Candle type: Bullish candle with a long upper wick, moderate body, and close below the high
→ Indicates selling pressure at the top zone after the upward move
📐 2. Fibonacci Levels (from $3,940 to $3,352)
Level Price Current Observation
0.382 $3,638.27 Surpassed and retested
0.5 $3,728.59 Current resistance zone
0.618 $3,815.12 Next strong resistance zone
0.786 $3,941.01 Bearish trend invalidated if broken
📌 Current price ($3,680.19) sits between 0.382 and 0.5 Fib — a critical structural decision zone
📅 3. Global Session Dynamics
🌏 Asian Session (5PM–1AM Arizona)
• Start of the bullish rally from ~$3,552 to ~$3,646
• Move driven by rising volume, led by Asia—often more speculative and less solid
🇪🇺 European Session (1AM–9AM Arizona)
• Strong continuation of the move, breaking above MAs (25 & 99) on 4H
• RSI and MACD accelerating into overbought territory
• This was the steepest segment of the rally
🇺🇸 U.S. Session (9AM–1PM Arizona)
• The 4H candle under analysis shows partial reversal with a long upper wick, signaling:
• Profit-taking
• Possible early distribution
• Lower conviction to sustain the rally
📉 4. Technical Indicators (4H)
📈 RSI (6) = 73.36
• Overbought zone, but no divergence yet
📉 MACD = 31.33 (positive and rising)
• Bullish momentum still active, though histogram shows slower acceleration → potential top forming
📊 Volume
• Strong volume in previous candle; current candle shows decreasing volume despite a new high → fatigue signal
🧭 5. Structural Reading + Macro Focus (1D)
• Daily chart still holds a primary bearish structure
• MACD on 1D has not yet crossed bullish
• RSI(1D) still under 60 → no macro reversal confirmed
🔎 6. Intuitive Market Reading
• The rally appears to be a technical correction within a broader bearish move, rather than a genuine reversal
• Large traders are testing resistance levels and delivering liquidity to retail traders buying at the top of the bounce
• The rejection near $3,715–$3,730 aligns with:
• 🔸 MA(99) confluence on 1H and 4H
• 🔸 0.5 Fibonacci retracement
• 🔸 Possible resistance from prior structure
✅ Operational and Tactical Conclusion
• Current zone is ideal to watch for exhaustion or bearish entry signals upon confirmed rejection
• If price consolidates below $3,715–$3,730 with declining volume, it could be an optimal point to scale into a short position
• Key confirmations to wait for:
• Bearish engulfing candle on 1H or 4H
• Increasing red volume
• 1H MACD starting to turn down
• RSI(6) dropping below 70
