🟣 4H Chart
🕯️ Current Candle:
• Open: $3,554.01
• High: $3,663.88
• Low: $3,549.16
• Close: $3,646.59
• Change: +$92.59 (+2.61%)
• Volume: 1.58M ETH
• MACD Histogram: +26.43
• RSI(6): 66+ and rising
🔍 Precise Technical Reading:
1. Strong rebound with minor resistance break ($3,638 – 0.382 Fib)
• The candle broke through the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement with a solid body, which had been acting as a technical resistance zone.
• It also broke above the MA7, MA25, and MA99 on the 4H chart, signaling tactical strength.
• However, it has not yet reached the critical levels of 0.5 Fib ($3,728) or 0.618 ($3,815), which are key to invalidating the 1D bearish structure.
2. High volume but during the Asian session (important context)
• The move happened during the Asian session, which typically lacks structural confirmation due to lower institutional volume.
• The volume was high for that session, suggesting possible manipulation or a short squeeze before the London/New York openings.
3. 4H MACD still indicates a rebound
• Although the histogram is clearly positive and expanding, the DIF and DEA lines are still in the negative zone. No full bullish crossover yet.
• This supports the hypothesis of a technical rebound without a confirmed trend reversal.
4. RSI overbought on 4H
• RSI(6) is now reaching 65–70, typical exhaustion zones in rebounds within bearish trends.
• RSI(12) and (24) are rising but not euphoric. Be cautious of potential divergences if price fails to surpass $3,728.
🟡 1D Structure – Macro Trend
• Remains clearly bearish. The daily candle has not broken the 0.5 or 0.618 Fibonacci levels.
• The daily MACD still shows a negative histogram with DIF and DEA sloping downward.
• As long as price doesn’t break and close above $3,728 or $3,815, the current rally is considered a technical retracement within a broader bearish trend.
🧠 Analytical Conclusion
✅ Macro bearish trend remains valid.
⏳ The current move is a technical rally in a critical zone, driven by the Asian session, but still lacks macro confirmation of a trend reversal.
📉 Optimal Zones for Short Scaling:
1. $3,660–$3,685: current zone. First tactical validation area for short scaling if rejection is observed.
2. $3,728 (0.5 Fib): if price climbs here weakly and shows a wick/strong rejection, it’s an ideal level for a large short entry.
3. $3,815 (0.618 Fib): the last bearish stronghold. If this breaks, the macro bearish structure is invalidated.
📌 Critical Alert:
• If one of the next 4H candles shows a rejection (bearish engulfing or pinbar) with decreasing volume, a tactical short scale-in may be taken.
• Do not enter impulsively if price keeps rising strongly—wait for exhaustion confirmation.
