🕯️ 4H Candle Close – ETHUSDT
Candle Data:
• Date: 2025-08-05
• Open: $3,568.46
• Close: $3,570.18
• High: $3,611.00
• Low: $3,558.00
• Change: +0.05% (Doji candle)
• Volume: 753.7K ETH
• Candle Type: Small-bodied doji with long wicks
📊 Technical & Structural Reading
🔸 Doji Candle → Sign of Indecision
• Technical rejection at the top ($3,611) → same resistance zone as previous rebound
• Support still defended between $3,555–$3,558
• Price remains within the range block, without breaking the prior bearish structure
• Bollinger Bands contracting → possible volatility expansion ahead
🧭 Indicator Confirmations (4H)
📉 RSI(24): 47.19
• Below the 50 level → no confirmed buying momentum
• Neutral-bearish zone: no divergence, but lacks strength for recovery
📉 MACD: +12.75
• Fast line still above the slow line but flattening out
• Still positive, but at risk of a bearish crossover if no strong upside shift occurs soon
📉 Volume:
• Strong but slightly decreasing
• Still above the MA(10) average → interest remains in the area, but no clear buyer conviction
🌎 Global Market Flow
🕘 Session Opening:
• Opened with slight buying pressure → weak attempt at recovery
• Technical rejection at $3,611, aligning with previous candle resistance zones
🌍 During the Block:
• U.S. session fully active:
• Wall Street sold the bounce
• Institutional rejection at $3,611 suggests large players still leaning bearish
• Long upper wicks reinforce that bulls weren’t allowed to close high
🇺🇸 U.S. Session Reading:
• U.S. did not absorb prior supply — instead, confirmed weakness
• This candle, combined with previous ones, signals exhaustion of the technical bounce
🧠 Interpretation
“A doji in the middle of a bearish structure, following rejection at $3,735 and confirmed institutional selling during the U.S. session, is not balance — it’s a warning.”
• The market shows clear signs of buyer fatigue
• Support defense lacked conviction — more like a last stand than a stronghold
• All signs point to this being a pause before a potential next bearish leg
🔮 Upcoming Scenarios (Macro)
🟥 Preferred Bearish Scenario
• Trend confirmed if:
• $3,555 support breaks with a solid-bodied candle
• MACD begins turning bearish in upcoming candles
• Bearish Targets:
• $3,528 (0.236 Fib)
• $3,445 (prior liquidity zone)
• $3,353 (recent local low)
🟩 Alternative Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
• Would require:
• Close above $3,611
• Rising volume
• RSI breaking above 50
• No current evidence supports this scenario
✅ Operational Conclusion
Factor Reading
Macro Trend Confirmed Bearish
Current Candle Doji of indecision → more bearish than neutral
Volume Still strong, but losing momentum
U.S. Reaction Sold the bounce
Strategy Maintain short or wait for next candle to confirm bearish continuation entry
