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The bull market is a great retreat!
On August 4th, I published the first piece of copy on Binance, with the content being a two-way movement type. Movement 1 is the wave 5-3 plan that breaks the previous high, and movement 2 is the wave 4 plan that ends wave 5-3. The boundary for choosing strength and weakness is set at 115,800 USD, which is the 4-hour EMA at that time. Above the average line is bullish, below it is mainly bearish.
As the market evolves with the movements, the structure becomes more and more complete. The final choice is the continuation plan of wave 5-3.
The overall structure of wave 5-3 is a wedge, specifically manifested as an initial surge, followed by a decline, and then exhaustion.
As shown in the figure:
The internal structure of wave 5-3/ or the overall internal structure of wave 5 will be elaborated below as a possibility of wave 5
As the market evolves with the movements, the structure becomes more and more complete. The final choice is the continuation plan of wave 5-3.
The overall structure of wave 5-3 is a wedge, specifically manifested as an initial surge, followed by a decline, and then exhaustion.
As shown in the figure:
The internal structure of wave 5-3/ or the overall internal structure of wave 5 will be elaborated below as a possibility of wave 5
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Looking back on the past, looking forward to the future!
July 31, 2025 Bitcoin forecast, quotes sourced from Binance.
Today, I mainly refined the larger structure as the framework for my subsequent analysis and predictions.
Weekly chart as shown:
Weekly structure chart
When it was at 109XXX USD, I had hypothesized a plan for the end of wave 5. The yellow lines in the chart ran a total of 5 strokes, and both the structural strength and time match very well. Wave 5 is viewed as the conclusion of the main bullish rise since 15XXX in wave theory. However, things didn't go as planned, and the market moved in the opposite direction, creating a new historical high.
Therefore, the hypothesis that wave 5 of the weekly structure has ended is naturally invalid. The only existing type of movement in the market is that wave 5 has not ended but has formed an ending wedge structure. Specifically, as shown in the diagram below:
Today, I mainly refined the larger structure as the framework for my subsequent analysis and predictions.
Weekly chart as shown:
Weekly structure chart
When it was at 109XXX USD, I had hypothesized a plan for the end of wave 5. The yellow lines in the chart ran a total of 5 strokes, and both the structural strength and time match very well. Wave 5 is viewed as the conclusion of the main bullish rise since 15XXX in wave theory. However, things didn't go as planned, and the market moved in the opposite direction, creating a new historical high.
Therefore, the hypothesis that wave 5 of the weekly structure has ended is naturally invalid. The only existing type of movement in the market is that wave 5 has not ended but has formed an ending wedge structure. Specifically, as shown in the diagram below:
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有点下不去，估计还要震荡一下子。我减仓了
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The hour pen structure is very complete, I filled my position and charged!
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Technical Forecast from 9th to 5th
Price sourced from Binance
Rebound may end at any time, be cautious when going long!
Price sourced from Binance
Rebound may end at any time, be cautious when going long!
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Made a price difference position of two to three thousand dollars for the replenishment. The rebound may not be over, let's see.
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The guide to ending the oscillation rebound structure is in progress, and there is no need to focus on this market too much. Wait for the rebound to end and then increase positions to short.
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In the rebound after the end of the guiding wave, the long position target is between 1135-1145, Bitcoin
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The guided decline is over, a rebound is coming! Target around 113.
ceshi111
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Add a new set of sub-wave 3 extension plans, breaking 110,900 USD is unlikely. If it falls below the previous low of 107,350 USD, then the current guiding plan will not be favored. I will replenish my positions, with a stop-loss set at 109,450 USD, while the base position remains unchanged. Let's see how the market chooses with the remaining positions.
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It seems there hasn't been an update today. Here, I view it as a guiding wave. A few days ago, I assumed the guiding wave, and I still think it cannot be denied. Here, it needs to break below 104XXX USD to negate the possibility of the guiding wave. Personally, I currently lean towards this guiding wave trend, and this is also the support position of the daily EMA moving average. After a rebound, it will test again, and then the big drop will begin. Personally, I have reduced my position here, aiming for the rebound target around 113500-115000. The trend is bearish, so I will hold my base position and wait for a rebound to add to my position.
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Gold breaks the downward trend, charge on Monday!
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