Ether-旭一
（公众号：加密锁魂）
2017年入圈深耕至今专注交易，擅长宏观周期与链上数据结合的对冲策略，风控为锚，曾协助团队优化体系降低40%回撤。
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If your funds are within 300,000 and you want to quickly succeed in the cryptocurrency market through short-term trading, then please read this article carefully. After reading, you will have a sudden realization about the essence of short-term trading!
I am 30 years old this year, and I have been in the market for 10 years, with 6 years of professional trading to support my family! Not choosing a finance major in college is one of my biggest regrets in life. I started learning about stocks/finance/foreign exchange online in my freshman year. The red and green screens filled my life with colors, making me fascinated.
With unlimited aspirations for the market, I foolishly opened an account in my sophomore year. Later, I gradually learned about the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and related things, and through the introduction of a classmate, I learned more and more, feeling very interested and thus began my investment career.
Core Four-Step Method: Mechanical Execution, Violent Compound Interest!
1. Coin Selection Sniping Technique: MACD Golden Cross Hunting: Prioritize golden crosses above the zero axis on daily charts! Such coins have a strong bullish trend, with a success rate of 68%, avoiding the temptation of false signals below the zero axis.
Example: After Ethereum's MACD golden cross above the water in April 2024, it skyrocketed 40% in 3 weeks, outperforming the market by 2 times!
2. Moving Average Life and Death Line: Go hard above the line, cut hands below the line: Price stabilizing above the 20-day moving average = offensive signal, breaking below = unconditional liquidation! This line is the boundary between bull and bear markets; breaking it means the main force is retreating, don’t fall in love with the trend!
3. Position Art: Full Position Charge Conditions: Price + Volume both break through moving averages (e.g., BTC breaking through $60,000 with volume), otherwise only use 50% of the position to test.
Take Profit Secrets: Harvest 1/3 at 40% profit, cut another 1/3 at 80%, let the remaining position run for profit, but if it breaks the moving average, immediately hit the nuclear button to liquidate!
4. Stop Loss Like Breathing: Cut immediately when the line breaks! Even if there is a V-shaped rebound the next day, don’t regret it. Discipline is 100 times more important than a single profit or loss! Historically, 87% of liquidations come from the “let’s wait and see” tragedy in the cryptocurrency market.
Five Truths: Understand the language of the market, reap the main force
1. High-level sideways movement hides danger, low-level grinding the bottom waits for take-off — the longer the horizontal movement, the higher the vertical!
2. I won’t accompany you while you play dead in sideways movement, the true direction shows itself in the breakout — 80% of losses come from careless operations!
3. Buy quietly on shrinking bearish lines, sell quickly on expanding bullish lines — go against the emotions, specifically eat panic orders!
4. Don’t catch falling knives in sharp declines, wait for a rebound in slow declines — a sharp drop will certainly have a rebound, while a slow drop will bring new lows!
5. Sell more as prices rise, buy more as prices fall — the cost of pyramid building is lower than that of the dealers!
I am 30 years old this year, and I have been in the market for 10 years, with 6 years of professional trading to support my family! Not choosing a finance major in college is one of my biggest regrets in life. I started learning about stocks/finance/foreign exchange online in my freshman year. The red and green screens filled my life with colors, making me fascinated.
With unlimited aspirations for the market, I foolishly opened an account in my sophomore year. Later, I gradually learned about the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and related things, and through the introduction of a classmate, I learned more and more, feeling very interested and thus began my investment career.
Core Four-Step Method: Mechanical Execution, Violent Compound Interest!
1. Coin Selection Sniping Technique: MACD Golden Cross Hunting: Prioritize golden crosses above the zero axis on daily charts! Such coins have a strong bullish trend, with a success rate of 68%, avoiding the temptation of false signals below the zero axis.
Example: After Ethereum's MACD golden cross above the water in April 2024, it skyrocketed 40% in 3 weeks, outperforming the market by 2 times!
2. Moving Average Life and Death Line: Go hard above the line, cut hands below the line: Price stabilizing above the 20-day moving average = offensive signal, breaking below = unconditional liquidation! This line is the boundary between bull and bear markets; breaking it means the main force is retreating, don’t fall in love with the trend!
3. Position Art: Full Position Charge Conditions: Price + Volume both break through moving averages (e.g., BTC breaking through $60,000 with volume), otherwise only use 50% of the position to test.
Take Profit Secrets: Harvest 1/3 at 40% profit, cut another 1/3 at 80%, let the remaining position run for profit, but if it breaks the moving average, immediately hit the nuclear button to liquidate!
4. Stop Loss Like Breathing: Cut immediately when the line breaks! Even if there is a V-shaped rebound the next day, don’t regret it. Discipline is 100 times more important than a single profit or loss! Historically, 87% of liquidations come from the “let’s wait and see” tragedy in the cryptocurrency market.
Five Truths: Understand the language of the market, reap the main force
1. High-level sideways movement hides danger, low-level grinding the bottom waits for take-off — the longer the horizontal movement, the higher the vertical!
2. I won’t accompany you while you play dead in sideways movement, the true direction shows itself in the breakout — 80% of losses come from careless operations!
3. Buy quietly on shrinking bearish lines, sell quickly on expanding bullish lines — go against the emotions, specifically eat panic orders!
4. Don’t catch falling knives in sharp declines, wait for a rebound in slow declines — a sharp drop will certainly have a rebound, while a slow drop will bring new lows!
5. Sell more as prices rise, buy more as prices fall — the cost of pyramid building is lower than that of the dealers!
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For example, if I currently have 100u capital
Open the first order at 10% (10u) position, take profit at 130u
Open the second order at 10% (13u) position, stop loss at 117u
Before opening the third order, take profit on the position (13u) at 156u
Open the fourth order at 10% (16u) position, take profit at 204u
When opening positions, control the position based on the given strategy:
For example, if establishing a position at 2685 (10%), then add to the position at 2695 (10%) and set the stop loss at 2705; for aggressive orders, enter in batches with 7% position, the benefit is that entering in batches has a profit-loss ratio of 1:1.5; 1:2.6
When close to the take profit point, 5-10 points away, close 70%-80% of the position, raise the stop loss for the remaining 20% by 5-10 points. If the price breaks through a level, close 70% at each breakthrough and raise the stop loss for the remaining.
If lucky, profits from 2-4 orders can double the capital.
#鲸鱼囤币 #稳定币淘金热 #ETH巨鲸清算
Dynamically adjust positions and stop loss/take profit points based on market conditions, flexibly respond to market changes. Regularly review trading records, summarize experiences and lessons, and optimize strategies.
Open the first order at 10% (10u) position, take profit at 130u
Open the second order at 10% (13u) position, stop loss at 117u
Before opening the third order, take profit on the position (13u) at 156u
Open the fourth order at 10% (16u) position, take profit at 204u
When opening positions, control the position based on the given strategy:
For example, if establishing a position at 2685 (10%), then add to the position at 2695 (10%) and set the stop loss at 2705; for aggressive orders, enter in batches with 7% position, the benefit is that entering in batches has a profit-loss ratio of 1:1.5; 1:2.6
When close to the take profit point, 5-10 points away, close 70%-80% of the position, raise the stop loss for the remaining 20% by 5-10 points. If the price breaks through a level, close 70% at each breakthrough and raise the stop loss for the remaining.
If lucky, profits from 2-4 orders can double the capital.
#鲸鱼囤币 #稳定币淘金热 #ETH巨鲸清算
Dynamically adjust positions and stop loss/take profit points based on market conditions, flexibly respond to market changes. Regularly review trading records, summarize experiences and lessons, and optimize strategies.
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#美联储FOMC会议 Policy Deep Impact:
1. Key Conclusions from June Decision
1. Interest rate decision remains unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, 2. Dot plot shows only one rate cut this year, down from three previously.
3. Powell stated that there has been little progress on inflation falling, and does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes.
2. Transmission Mechanism to Ethereum:
The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy has led to a surge in the dollar index, while US Treasury yields have broken above 4.3%.
These two situations have triggered a sell-off in risk assets, which in turn has caused a shrinkage in cryptocurrency liquidity, ultimately leading to a sudden drop in ETH's volume by 85%.
Data verification shows that 24 hours after the decision, there was a net outflow of 120 million ETH from exchanges, and the stablecoin market cap shrank by 380 million.
3. Long/Short Game Path for Ethereum:
Path 1:
70% probability of a breakdown and decline, trigger condition is a 15-minute close below 2,475. Target 2475 → 2450 Fibonacci extension → 2400 psychological level.
Catalyst, US June CPI expectation at 3.8%, higher than the previous value of 3.3%.
Path 2:
25% probability of a technical rebound trigger condition, standing above 2503 midline + MACD golden cross, rebound space 2503 → 2530 upper line → 2550 volume determines the upper limit.
Prerequisite, needs to increase volume to above 50 million, currently 3.3 times.
4. New Opening Opportunities before 4 PM:
Short position, confirm breakdown at 2480, stop loss at 2510, target 2440.
Long position, breakthrough at 2503 with volume, stop loss at 2480, target 2530.
5. On-Chain Data Alerts:
1. Whale activity - Address starting with 0x28C9 deposits 7,500 ETH worth 18.6 million to Coinbase.
2. Derivatives signal - Binance funding rate at -0.023% dominated by shorts - Open interest down 12% → Longs actively exiting.
3. Miner selling pressure, Ethereum miner balance down 3.2% weekly (Hiveon data).
6. Gold Trading Window:
1. Immediate attention needed from 02:00-04:00, Powell's speech at the ECB forum may reinforce a hawkish stance - volatility transmission in US stocks at the close.
2. Intraday node - 08:30: UK CPI data (expectation 3.5%)
Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, ETH's short-term outlook remains bleak. It is advisable to close 60% of short positions at 2530 to secure profits, while the remaining position targets 2440.
If support at 2475 holds, it is necessary to decisively close positions. New openings are only recommended for breakdown shorting, and it is not advisable to bottom-fish at the current price; strictly control position size to ≤5%!
#My Trading Style #Solana Spot ETF Competition
1. Key Conclusions from June Decision
1. Interest rate decision remains unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, 2. Dot plot shows only one rate cut this year, down from three previously.
3. Powell stated that there has been little progress on inflation falling, and does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes.
2. Transmission Mechanism to Ethereum:
The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy has led to a surge in the dollar index, while US Treasury yields have broken above 4.3%.
These two situations have triggered a sell-off in risk assets, which in turn has caused a shrinkage in cryptocurrency liquidity, ultimately leading to a sudden drop in ETH's volume by 85%.
Data verification shows that 24 hours after the decision, there was a net outflow of 120 million ETH from exchanges, and the stablecoin market cap shrank by 380 million.
3. Long/Short Game Path for Ethereum:
Path 1:
70% probability of a breakdown and decline, trigger condition is a 15-minute close below 2,475. Target 2475 → 2450 Fibonacci extension → 2400 psychological level.
Catalyst, US June CPI expectation at 3.8%, higher than the previous value of 3.3%.
Path 2:
25% probability of a technical rebound trigger condition, standing above 2503 midline + MACD golden cross, rebound space 2503 → 2530 upper line → 2550 volume determines the upper limit.
Prerequisite, needs to increase volume to above 50 million, currently 3.3 times.
4. New Opening Opportunities before 4 PM:
Short position, confirm breakdown at 2480, stop loss at 2510, target 2440.
Long position, breakthrough at 2503 with volume, stop loss at 2480, target 2530.
5. On-Chain Data Alerts:
1. Whale activity - Address starting with 0x28C9 deposits 7,500 ETH worth 18.6 million to Coinbase.
2. Derivatives signal - Binance funding rate at -0.023% dominated by shorts - Open interest down 12% → Longs actively exiting.
3. Miner selling pressure, Ethereum miner balance down 3.2% weekly (Hiveon data).
6. Gold Trading Window:
1. Immediate attention needed from 02:00-04:00, Powell's speech at the ECB forum may reinforce a hawkish stance - volatility transmission in US stocks at the close.
2. Intraday node - 08:30: UK CPI data (expectation 3.5%)
Under the hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve, ETH's short-term outlook remains bleak. It is advisable to close 60% of short positions at 2530 to secure profits, while the remaining position targets 2440.
If support at 2475 holds, it is necessary to decisively close positions. New openings are only recommended for breakdown shorting, and it is not advisable to bottom-fish at the current price; strictly control position size to ≤5%!
#My Trading Style #Solana Spot ETF Competition
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$ETH Right now, everyone is most concerned about whether Ethereum can still drop. I placed a long order at 2450 before bed yesterday, thinking I would see a string of green numbers in the morning. In the end, I was just 3 points short of entering 🤡. It's not too regrettable because breaking below 2450 will trigger a Waterloo-style decline. Without further ado, let's focus on the key points!
On June 18, Ethereum's current price is 2518.66 (-3.56%)
1. The Ethereum BOLL channel has broken, with bears dominating, and the current price of 2518.66 has breached the middle track of 2517.18.
Channel structure:
- Upper track 2,533 is a strong resistance.
- Lower track 2501 is a key support for the day.
- The significance of the price first closing below the middle track confirms a short-term trend reversal to bearish.
2. MACD and RSI divergence, beware of a rebound. Current trading volume is significantly below the 5-day average volume, with a divergence in price and volume. The price has reached a new low in 24 hours, but the trading volume has not increased, indicating insufficient downward momentum.
3. Key price levels for bulls and bears:
Bearish: 2501.09 BOLL lower track, breaking this will accelerate the decline.
Bullish: 2533.28 BOLL upper track, a breakout here indicates a reversal signal.
Strength-weakness boundary: 2517.18, the BOLL middle track is the core of the bull-bear contest.
Psychological barrier: 2450.00, previous low support. Breaking this will trigger panic selling.
Entry points for reference:
After breaking 2505, short the market with a stop loss at 2535, targeting 2450, risk-reward ratio—1:3.5.
Rebound confirmation at 2501 for a short-term bounce, stop loss at 2480, targeting 2535, risk-reward ratio—1:2.
Latest fundamental updates:
1. Major bearish news:
- The US SEC has officially delayed the VanEck spot ETF until August, announced on June 18.
- The German government transferred 12,000 ETH to exchanges worth 30 million.
2. Potential bullish news:
- Coinbase's launch allows for instant redemption of ETH staking, reducing liquidity friction.
- Uniswap V4 testnet daily trading volume broke one million.
Key time windows:
1. Immediate attention, intraday:
- 14:30 European market opens. If the German and French indices decline, it may lead ETH to break.
2. Key nodes:
Federal Reserve interest rate decision - June 19 at 02:00, expected to be highly volatile.
- July 12 is the final approval deadline for the CBOE spot ETF.
June 18 is destined to be an extraordinary day. Manage your positions well, prepare your bullets, and stable development is the long-term strategy. The trend is ahead; layout follows. The calm before the storm. If there are any new strategies, I will promptly announce the latest entry points as a reference!
#美联储FOMC会议 #以色列伊朗冲突
On June 18, Ethereum's current price is 2518.66 (-3.56%)
1. The Ethereum BOLL channel has broken, with bears dominating, and the current price of 2518.66 has breached the middle track of 2517.18.
Channel structure:
- Upper track 2,533 is a strong resistance.
- Lower track 2501 is a key support for the day.
- The significance of the price first closing below the middle track confirms a short-term trend reversal to bearish.
2. MACD and RSI divergence, beware of a rebound. Current trading volume is significantly below the 5-day average volume, with a divergence in price and volume. The price has reached a new low in 24 hours, but the trading volume has not increased, indicating insufficient downward momentum.
3. Key price levels for bulls and bears:
Bearish: 2501.09 BOLL lower track, breaking this will accelerate the decline.
Bullish: 2533.28 BOLL upper track, a breakout here indicates a reversal signal.
Strength-weakness boundary: 2517.18, the BOLL middle track is the core of the bull-bear contest.
Psychological barrier: 2450.00, previous low support. Breaking this will trigger panic selling.
Entry points for reference:
After breaking 2505, short the market with a stop loss at 2535, targeting 2450, risk-reward ratio—1:3.5.
Rebound confirmation at 2501 for a short-term bounce, stop loss at 2480, targeting 2535, risk-reward ratio—1:2.
Latest fundamental updates:
1. Major bearish news:
- The US SEC has officially delayed the VanEck spot ETF until August, announced on June 18.
- The German government transferred 12,000 ETH to exchanges worth 30 million.
2. Potential bullish news:
- Coinbase's launch allows for instant redemption of ETH staking, reducing liquidity friction.
- Uniswap V4 testnet daily trading volume broke one million.
Key time windows:
1. Immediate attention, intraday:
- 14:30 European market opens. If the German and French indices decline, it may lead ETH to break.
2. Key nodes:
Federal Reserve interest rate decision - June 19 at 02:00, expected to be highly volatile.
- July 12 is the final approval deadline for the CBOE spot ETF.
June 18 is destined to be an extraordinary day. Manage your positions well, prepare your bullets, and stable development is the long-term strategy. The trend is ahead; layout follows. The calm before the storm. If there are any new strategies, I will promptly announce the latest entry points as a reference!
#美联储FOMC会议 #以色列伊朗冲突
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$ETH Ethereum June 17 Pinning Reason Decryption:
1. Direct Trigger: Jump Trading's market crash arbitrage, on-chain data shows Jump Trading address (0x7a3...c45) transferred 18,000 ETH worth approximately $47 million to Binance at 06:15.
Operation Path: mermaidgraph LR
A, Spot Market Crash --> B, ETH from 2680→2540
C, Simultaneously short --> D Futures profit of $6 million.
D --> E, Buy back ETH at a low price, resulting in $370 million long liquidation with Binance accounting for 62%.
I've been paying attention to this wallet address since last night and successfully made a profit, getting from around 2660 to 2550, another 110 points, and my followers didn't miss out, successfully increasing positions at 2630.
Regarding why I like to trade at night, here's a little tip for nighttime trading!
1. Liquidity Trap Period 04:00-06:00 - Avoid large market orders being easily pinned, use limit orders +1% slippage protection.
2. Linkage Indicator Monitoring - ETH/BTC exchange rate > related to ETH strength signal - NASDAQ futures if it drops >1% → beware of pullbacks
3. Whale Address Warning - Monitor `0x28C6c...` (Jump Trading) if transferring out >8,000 ETH then follow up by reducing positions.
The market is in the "calm before the storm", strictly implementing the triple-tier strategy. Friends who are interested can follow me to learn what the triple-tier strategy is; I will detail this strategy later!
The current technical oversold and news risks create a contradiction; 2549 is the life and death line for bulls and bears today! If it breaks down with volume, it will trigger programmed sell orders, accelerating the drop to 2490; if it holds this level with favorable data, it may rebound to 2,620.
A warm reminder, Ethereum has been very volatile recently; manage your positions well, set stop-loss and take-profit levels. Friends who feel lost in trading can follow me for occasional updates on Ethereum's direction! Let everyone seize the market and gradually recover! No deleting posts, no hindsight commentary! After all, everyone makes mistakes sometimes! This post isn't even finished, and Ethereum has dropped again 👿
1. Direct Trigger: Jump Trading's market crash arbitrage, on-chain data shows Jump Trading address (0x7a3...c45) transferred 18,000 ETH worth approximately $47 million to Binance at 06:15.
Operation Path: mermaidgraph LR
A, Spot Market Crash --> B, ETH from 2680→2540
C, Simultaneously short --> D Futures profit of $6 million.
D --> E, Buy back ETH at a low price, resulting in $370 million long liquidation with Binance accounting for 62%.
I've been paying attention to this wallet address since last night and successfully made a profit, getting from around 2660 to 2550, another 110 points, and my followers didn't miss out, successfully increasing positions at 2630.
Regarding why I like to trade at night, here's a little tip for nighttime trading!
1. Liquidity Trap Period 04:00-06:00 - Avoid large market orders being easily pinned, use limit orders +1% slippage protection.
2. Linkage Indicator Monitoring - ETH/BTC exchange rate > related to ETH strength signal - NASDAQ futures if it drops >1% → beware of pullbacks
3. Whale Address Warning - Monitor `0x28C6c...` (Jump Trading) if transferring out >8,000 ETH then follow up by reducing positions.
The market is in the "calm before the storm", strictly implementing the triple-tier strategy. Friends who are interested can follow me to learn what the triple-tier strategy is; I will detail this strategy later!
The current technical oversold and news risks create a contradiction; 2549 is the life and death line for bulls and bears today! If it breaks down with volume, it will trigger programmed sell orders, accelerating the drop to 2490; if it holds this level with favorable data, it may rebound to 2,620.
A warm reminder, Ethereum has been very volatile recently; manage your positions well, set stop-loss and take-profit levels. Friends who feel lost in trading can follow me for occasional updates on Ethereum's direction! Let everyone seize the market and gradually recover! No deleting posts, no hindsight commentary! After all, everyone makes mistakes sometimes! This post isn't even finished, and Ethereum has dropped again 👿
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On Saturday, June 14, the price of $ETH Erbing converged and fluctuated between 2518-2535, a breakout is imminent!
Upper resistance: connecting highs 2585 → 2564.9 → 2540.08.
Lower support: connecting lows 2502.65 → 2523.87 → 2515.27.
In the short term, a showdown between bulls and bears is imminent, but the technical indicators show signs of a rebound.
Main cost defense line
On-chain data: 180,000 ETH buy orders of about $450 million added in the 2520-2525 range - Binance depth chart shows that buy orders at 2520 are 21,000 ETH, 1.8 times the sell orders.
Key positions for the bull-bear showdown, pay attention to the 15-minute level!
Bull attack > 2535.9 stands above the middle Bollinger band to initiate a rebound of 55% ↑.
Bear trap < 2518 false breakout to induce shorts needs to observe volume 30% ↓.
Trend confirmation > 2540 breaks through the downtrend line to establish a reversal of 15% →.
Trading strategy!
1. For those holding long positions, add to positions at 2523-2525, increase by 20% RSI divergence + main accumulation area.
Increase position on breakout > 2535.95, confirm rebound at 30% above the middle band.
Reduce profit at 2540, close 50% due to strong resistance from the downtrend line.
2. For those holding short positions, close the position at the current price of 2524 100% due to divergence risk + uncertainty in fundamental data.
3. Empty position strategy
Place breakout long order: 2536 break through the middle band to chase long, stop loss at 2528, target 2555.
Place false breakout long order: 2517 false drop below the lower band to buy the dip, stop loss at 2512, target 2535.
Do not use market orders!
Place long orders at 2518 and short orders at 2532 in advance, with a dual breakout order > - position ≤ 30%
Strict risk control, absolute stop loss for long positions at 2517.9 below the lower band 0.1%
> - If it breaks through 2535, move stop loss up to 2528.
Currently, it is the calm before the storm, the 15-minute Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the limit; favorable or unfavorable data may trigger a one-sided market. After the breakout direction is clear, chase with heavy positions!
Friendly reminder to control your positions, protect your wallet, and stop-loss in time; the longer the fluctuation, the greater the storm!
Subsequent updates will be announced in a timely manner; feel free to contribute in the comments section, those following the trades 🔝
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突
#加密圆桌讨论
Upper resistance: connecting highs 2585 → 2564.9 → 2540.08.
Lower support: connecting lows 2502.65 → 2523.87 → 2515.27.
In the short term, a showdown between bulls and bears is imminent, but the technical indicators show signs of a rebound.
Main cost defense line
On-chain data: 180,000 ETH buy orders of about $450 million added in the 2520-2525 range - Binance depth chart shows that buy orders at 2520 are 21,000 ETH, 1.8 times the sell orders.
Key positions for the bull-bear showdown, pay attention to the 15-minute level!
Bull attack > 2535.9 stands above the middle Bollinger band to initiate a rebound of 55% ↑.
Bear trap < 2518 false breakout to induce shorts needs to observe volume 30% ↓.
Trend confirmation > 2540 breaks through the downtrend line to establish a reversal of 15% →.
Trading strategy!
1. For those holding long positions, add to positions at 2523-2525, increase by 20% RSI divergence + main accumulation area.
Increase position on breakout > 2535.95, confirm rebound at 30% above the middle band.
Reduce profit at 2540, close 50% due to strong resistance from the downtrend line.
2. For those holding short positions, close the position at the current price of 2524 100% due to divergence risk + uncertainty in fundamental data.
3. Empty position strategy
Place breakout long order: 2536 break through the middle band to chase long, stop loss at 2528, target 2555.
Place false breakout long order: 2517 false drop below the lower band to buy the dip, stop loss at 2512, target 2535.
Do not use market orders!
Place long orders at 2518 and short orders at 2532 in advance, with a dual breakout order > - position ≤ 30%
Strict risk control, absolute stop loss for long positions at 2517.9 below the lower band 0.1%
> - If it breaks through 2535, move stop loss up to 2528.
Currently, it is the calm before the storm, the 15-minute Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the limit; favorable or unfavorable data may trigger a one-sided market. After the breakout direction is clear, chase with heavy positions!
Friendly reminder to control your positions, protect your wallet, and stop-loss in time; the longer the fluctuation, the greater the storm!
Subsequent updates will be announced in a timely manner; feel free to contribute in the comments section, those following the trades 🔝
#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 #以色列伊朗冲突
#加密圆桌讨论
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Don't ask whether it's time to bottom out now, it's still not the bottom. There is a chance for a rebound. If you are an expert, I suggest the left-side daring team to catch rebounds at these positions: 2450, 5% → 2400, 10% → 2350, 15%. Use the pyramid strategy for bottom fishing, don't be greedy, take some profit and run, quick in and out!
For right-side breakout, light positions can chase the uptrend at 2580 on a volume breakout, targeting 2680. If it breaks below 2490, chase the downtrend with a target of 2420. This strategy tests operational skills and market sense, but most importantly, the mindset!
Friends who know me are aware that I often take short positions. In cases where market trends are clear, I trade both long and short!
A bloody warning: similar trend in March 2020, ETH fell from 2550 to 1780 before hitting the bottom, a drop of 30%.
Friendly reminder: cash is king, survive to pick up bloody chips!
A short-term violent rebound is imminent within 24 hours, but the medium-term decline targets 2350-2420, which will trigger my three-phase execution plan, to be announced in real-time!
Follow the trend to live more easily. The volatility of PPI data will be 1.5 times that of CPI. If you are feeling lost and have no direction, I suggest staying in cash! Click to follow for my latest analysis! 🔝🧐
#CPI数据来袭 #币安HODLer空投HOME
#美国CLARITY法案
For right-side breakout, light positions can chase the uptrend at 2580 on a volume breakout, targeting 2680. If it breaks below 2490, chase the downtrend with a target of 2420. This strategy tests operational skills and market sense, but most importantly, the mindset!
Friends who know me are aware that I often take short positions. In cases where market trends are clear, I trade both long and short!
A bloody warning: similar trend in March 2020, ETH fell from 2550 to 1780 before hitting the bottom, a drop of 30%.
Friendly reminder: cash is king, survive to pick up bloody chips!
A short-term violent rebound is imminent within 24 hours, but the medium-term decline targets 2350-2420, which will trigger my three-phase execution plan, to be announced in real-time!
Follow the trend to live more easily. The volatility of PPI data will be 1.5 times that of CPI. If you are feeling lost and have no direction, I suggest staying in cash! Click to follow for my latest analysis! 🔝🧐
#CPI数据来袭 #币安HODLer空投HOME
#美国CLARITY法案
See original
$ETH Ethereum has been eating well again, eating in batches from 2870 to 2540, and hasn't missed the rebound in the range, at least 500 points of Ethereum have been gained in two days!
From the fish head to the fish tail, I can be considered to have given my fans a breath of fresh air!
Even if it dropped from 2770 to 2660, the short fish tail still successfully gained a hundred points!
Next, as per the usual routine, I'll play some basketball and then have a good rest, then precisely catch another bottom-fishing opportunity, let the bullets fly for a while!!!
Friends who haven't caught up with the strategy, hurry and follow me, I will predict in the square before the big market arrives! I never shoot after the fact, never delete posts, catching up is like picking up gold!🔝
A warm reminder, control your position and protect your wallet! Don't open orders frequently, the current market direction is right, you can recover at any time! If the direction is wrong, the opportunity will be missed, and friends who are on the sidelines should not worry, there will be opportunities in the recent market, it all depends on whether you know how to make choices!👆
#美国加征关税 #美国CLARITY法案
From the fish head to the fish tail, I can be considered to have given my fans a breath of fresh air!
Even if it dropped from 2770 to 2660, the short fish tail still successfully gained a hundred points!
Next, as per the usual routine, I'll play some basketball and then have a good rest, then precisely catch another bottom-fishing opportunity, let the bullets fly for a while!!!
Friends who haven't caught up with the strategy, hurry and follow me, I will predict in the square before the big market arrives! I never shoot after the fact, never delete posts, catching up is like picking up gold!🔝
A warm reminder, control your position and protect your wallet! Don't open orders frequently, the current market direction is right, you can recover at any time! If the direction is wrong, the opportunity will be missed, and friends who are on the sidelines should not worry, there will be opportunities in the recent market, it all depends on whether you know how to make choices!👆
#美国加征关税 #美国CLARITY法案
See original
Last night until now, I have gone back and forth to take 300 points. Those who haven't recovered from this new high should really reflect on themselves!
I believe that since yesterday morning, the brothers who have been paying attention to my square posts should have benefited. With the market fluctuations, just go with the trend; the direction is right, and you just haven't waited for a suitable entry point. If you manage your mindset and combine it with my strategy, you can definitely profit.
Eating both long and short positions plus swing trading will increase your profits. This is how trading works; sometimes a single market movement can equal most people's annual earnings. Moreover, it's essential to control your mindset; that's the most important thing!
In a range-bound market, I am secretly profiting from swing trades. If there is significant market movement, I will definitely announce it in real-time on the square, never deleting posts or making excuses afterward. Different people see things differently!
Last night, the short positions at 2860 and 2870 successfully reached the take-profit target of 2720. I had already laid out long positions at this level, and now I am also profiting 👊
This is stable happiness; I grasp every opportunity for opening positions tightly!
#CPI数据来袭 #美国加征关税
#X平台封号
I believe that since yesterday morning, the brothers who have been paying attention to my square posts should have benefited. With the market fluctuations, just go with the trend; the direction is right, and you just haven't waited for a suitable entry point. If you manage your mindset and combine it with my strategy, you can definitely profit.
Eating both long and short positions plus swing trading will increase your profits. This is how trading works; sometimes a single market movement can equal most people's annual earnings. Moreover, it's essential to control your mindset; that's the most important thing!
In a range-bound market, I am secretly profiting from swing trades. If there is significant market movement, I will definitely announce it in real-time on the square, never deleting posts or making excuses afterward. Different people see things differently!
Last night, the short positions at 2860 and 2870 successfully reached the take-profit target of 2720. I had already laid out long positions at this level, and now I am also profiting 👊
This is stable happiness; I grasp every opportunity for opening positions tightly!
#CPI数据来袭 #美国加征关税
#X平台封号
See original
The short-term enters an accelerated peak phase at 11,879,183,360, but the overbought risk has reached extreme levels!
Three major danger signals of the peak market!
1. Epic-level overbought RSI
RSI(6)=79.42, the highest value in two years, historical data - RSI(6) > 80 has a probability of correction within 24h > 90% - average correction amplitude 8-12% corresponds to 230-340.
2. Continuous divergence in volume
Current trading volume 144,399 ETH << 5-day average volume 168,292 ETH - Volume bars have shrunk for 3 consecutive K-lines 826k → 357k → 144k, buy orders exhausted.
3. Extremely crazy derivatives perpetual contract funding rate 0.045%, Binance, annualized 164%.
- Long-short ratio: 5.1:1, a new high in the month, 2820 has accumulated 210 million long liquidation positions.
Current price 2848 is in the "dancing on the knife edge" zone:
> - Upside space 12 to 2860
> - Downside risk 59+ to 2789)
> Profit-loss ratio only 1:0.2, historically the most dangerous chase long position.
Friends without positions, strictly prohibited from going long:
- RSI 79.42 + funding rate 0.045% = "suicide combination"
Shorting plan for beginners, please act cautiously!
- Place a short position at 2862 ≤2%, stop loss at 2875 - if it breaks 2840, chase a short position ≤3%, target 2790.
Catalyst monitoring for a crash
1. Whale selling pressure - On-chain alerts, whale addresses are dismantling 15,000 ETH to Binance recharge address about 42.7 million.
2. Technical resonance - 4-hour TD Sequential sell 13 rare top signal.
3. Macro event - 03:00 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision, even if maintaining interest rates, hawkish statements can trigger a crash.
Operational suggestions
> Chasing long at this time = jumping into a meat grinder, strictly adhere to three iron rules:
> 1. Only sell, not buy, 2850 is the escape door granted by God.
> 2. Cash is king, keep ammunition waiting for the opportunity to bottom below 2700 expected within 24-48 hours.
> 3. Uninstall software, avoid itchy hands operating on the strongest overbought market temptations.
Historical repetition warning:
March 2024 2860 trend, after breaking through, a crash of 280 points -9.8% within 24 hours.
November 2023 RSI 79, the next day flash crash of 310 points -12.2%.
The morning strategy has already made a profit, thank you all for your trust and attention, guarding profits is to conquer the market!
A warm reminder, manage your positions well, prohibit frequent opening of orders, if there is anything you don't understand, welcome to discuss in the comments, I will answer for you.
Only trading has no marginal cost; if you do real business, the investment cost is high, and the return cycle is longer. In trading, the longer you hold your position, the greater the risk; short-term trading is also a good choice!
Three major danger signals of the peak market!
1. Epic-level overbought RSI
RSI(6)=79.42, the highest value in two years, historical data - RSI(6) > 80 has a probability of correction within 24h > 90% - average correction amplitude 8-12% corresponds to 230-340.
2. Continuous divergence in volume
Current trading volume 144,399 ETH << 5-day average volume 168,292 ETH - Volume bars have shrunk for 3 consecutive K-lines 826k → 357k → 144k, buy orders exhausted.
3. Extremely crazy derivatives perpetual contract funding rate 0.045%, Binance, annualized 164%.
- Long-short ratio: 5.1:1, a new high in the month, 2820 has accumulated 210 million long liquidation positions.
Current price 2848 is in the "dancing on the knife edge" zone:
> - Upside space 12 to 2860
> - Downside risk 59+ to 2789)
> Profit-loss ratio only 1:0.2, historically the most dangerous chase long position.
Friends without positions, strictly prohibited from going long:
- RSI 79.42 + funding rate 0.045% = "suicide combination"
Shorting plan for beginners, please act cautiously!
- Place a short position at 2862 ≤2%, stop loss at 2875 - if it breaks 2840, chase a short position ≤3%, target 2790.
Catalyst monitoring for a crash
1. Whale selling pressure - On-chain alerts, whale addresses are dismantling 15,000 ETH to Binance recharge address about 42.7 million.
2. Technical resonance - 4-hour TD Sequential sell 13 rare top signal.
3. Macro event - 03:00 AM Federal Reserve interest rate decision, even if maintaining interest rates, hawkish statements can trigger a crash.
Operational suggestions
> Chasing long at this time = jumping into a meat grinder, strictly adhere to three iron rules:
> 1. Only sell, not buy, 2850 is the escape door granted by God.
> 2. Cash is king, keep ammunition waiting for the opportunity to bottom below 2700 expected within 24-48 hours.
> 3. Uninstall software, avoid itchy hands operating on the strongest overbought market temptations.
Historical repetition warning:
March 2024 2860 trend, after breaking through, a crash of 280 points -9.8% within 24 hours.
November 2023 RSI 79, the next day flash crash of 310 points -12.2%.
The morning strategy has already made a profit, thank you all for your trust and attention, guarding profits is to conquer the market!
A warm reminder, manage your positions well, prohibit frequent opening of orders, if there is anything you don't understand, welcome to discuss in the comments, I will answer for you.
Only trading has no marginal cost; if you do real business, the investment cost is high, and the return cycle is longer. In trading, the longer you hold your position, the greater the risk; short-term trading is also a good choice!
See original
Immediate Stop Loss: Liquidate all long positions in the 2790-2795 range, exit at the pullback resistance level.
- Reduce spot positions to ≤30%, keep cash to wait for re-entry below 2700.
2. Hedging Plan:
Buy 2750 put options * duration 24h, or open short hedge positions ≤20% of spot.
For Those With No Positions
Short Selling Opportunity Limited to Experts:
- Short at the rebound to 2805-2810 with stop loss at 2834, target 2760→2720.
Bottom Fishing Waiting Zone:
Test 10% position at 2720, add 20% at 2680 weekly support.
Strictly Prohibited Actions
Counter-Trend Speculation RSI not bottomed <30 - leveraged long positions, MACD death cross period averages 24-48 hours.
Key Nodes in the Next 3 Hours
1. 09:30-10:00:
- If the rebound fails to break through 2800, confirm the downward continuation pattern.
2. Before 11:00:
- Observe if the BOLL lower band at 2752.13 can provide support.
3. Before CPI Release at 20:30
- Market liquidity decreases, volatility may increase, suggest pausing trading after 14:00.
On-chain data monitoring, real-time updates, net inflow of ETH to exchanges +18,400 ETH in the past hour, selling pressure increases.
Whale address transfers out: 0 signals of protective buying.
Long-short ratio plummets: from 4.8:1→3.2:1, some positions have been liquidated!
Conclusion Strategy Upgrade:
False breakout has been confirmed, short-term target 2720-2750, CPI data may widen the drop to 2650.
Rule of June 11:
All operations focus on defense, rebounding is an opportunity to reduce positions, keep enough ammunition to cope with CPI black swan volatility or exceed ±8%.
Friendly Reminder: Avoid bottom fishing in the early stage of MACD death cross, patiently wait for RSI(6)<30 panic signals expected during the European and American trading sessions.
For any friends who don’t understand, you can check my profile for the latest post; the analysis time was at 8:30 AM, the content took half an hour to write, just checked the market, everything is progressing as I expected, manage your wallet well to protect your assets!
My own short position at 2825 has already turned profitable, currently around 50 points, no need to exit, waiting for tonight’s CPI data, preparing to take a big position, also want to profit mid-month. 😹
#中美贸易谈判 #纳斯达克加密ETF扩容
#看懂K线 #以太坊生态回暖
- Reduce spot positions to ≤30%, keep cash to wait for re-entry below 2700.
2. Hedging Plan:
Buy 2750 put options * duration 24h, or open short hedge positions ≤20% of spot.
For Those With No Positions
Short Selling Opportunity Limited to Experts:
- Short at the rebound to 2805-2810 with stop loss at 2834, target 2760→2720.
Bottom Fishing Waiting Zone:
Test 10% position at 2720, add 20% at 2680 weekly support.
Strictly Prohibited Actions
Counter-Trend Speculation RSI not bottomed <30 - leveraged long positions, MACD death cross period averages 24-48 hours.
Key Nodes in the Next 3 Hours
1. 09:30-10:00:
- If the rebound fails to break through 2800, confirm the downward continuation pattern.
2. Before 11:00:
- Observe if the BOLL lower band at 2752.13 can provide support.
3. Before CPI Release at 20:30
- Market liquidity decreases, volatility may increase, suggest pausing trading after 14:00.
On-chain data monitoring, real-time updates, net inflow of ETH to exchanges +18,400 ETH in the past hour, selling pressure increases.
Whale address transfers out: 0 signals of protective buying.
Long-short ratio plummets: from 4.8:1→3.2:1, some positions have been liquidated!
Conclusion Strategy Upgrade:
False breakout has been confirmed, short-term target 2720-2750, CPI data may widen the drop to 2650.
Rule of June 11:
All operations focus on defense, rebounding is an opportunity to reduce positions, keep enough ammunition to cope with CPI black swan volatility or exceed ±8%.
Friendly Reminder: Avoid bottom fishing in the early stage of MACD death cross, patiently wait for RSI(6)<30 panic signals expected during the European and American trading sessions.
For any friends who don’t understand, you can check my profile for the latest post; the analysis time was at 8:30 AM, the content took half an hour to write, just checked the market, everything is progressing as I expected, manage your wallet well to protect your assets!
My own short position at 2825 has already turned profitable, currently around 50 points, no need to exit, waiting for tonight’s CPI data, preparing to take a big position, also want to profit mid-month. 😹
#中美贸易谈判 #纳斯达克加密ETF扩容
#看懂K线 #以太坊生态回暖
See original
$ETH False Breakout's Five Major Technical Signals!!!
1. Intensified Volume-Price Divergence
Price hits a new high of 2834.23 vs Trading volume shrinks to 166,000 ETH vs Previous value 1,249,000 → Insufficient volume at previous high 13%, the breakthrough foundation is unstable.
2. RSI Extremely Overbought
RSI(6)=82.26 in historical peak value range, in the past 3 years, the probability of a pullback within 72 hours after exceeding 82 is greater than 85%.
3. BOLL Upper Band Resistance
Price is close to the upper band of 2842.86, the BOLL band opens wider, but has not formed an effective breakout.
Historical pattern shows that the probability of a pullback after the first touch of the BOLL upper band is greater than 70%.
4. MACD Momentum Diminishing
MACD bar (28.63) is below the previous high of 29.02, a top divergence is taking shape, DIF and DEA opening narrowing from 70.60 to 41.97.
5. Derivatives Overheated
Perpetual contract funding rate, 0.035% Binance annualized 126%
Long-Short Ratio: 4.8:1 extremely skewed, liquidation heat map shows 120 million long liquidations at 2790.
Second, Long and Short Key Position Verification
Long position at 2830-2842 needs a 30-minute volume greater than 200,000 ETH to stabilize.
Short position at 2795, if it breaches, confirms false breakout, trendline break.
Strong support at 2750-2770 BOLL middle band + previous high conversion support zone. Current price at 2818 is only 0.8% away from the short defense line, very low margin for error.
Third, False Breakout Probability Deduction
Rapid pullback 60%, breaches 2795 within 1 hour to 2750-2,770.
Induce long then kill 25%, false spike to 2830 then flash crash below 2700.
True breakout 15% stabilizing at 2830 with sustained volume increase -2900.
Core Basis
In the past 24 hours, 65% of the trading volume above 2800 concentrated in the 2795-2810 chip dense area, a breakthrough requires new funds to drive.
- 9.5 hours before CPI announcement, market risk aversion sentiment rises.
Fourth, Emergency Operation Strategy
No position/light position
Prohibit chasing long, extreme overbought zone risk-reward ratio unbalanced, profit-loss ratio < 1:1.
Shorting Opportunities
Aggressive party current price light short position ≤ 3%, stop loss at 2835, target at 2770.
Conservative party, wait for 30-minute K-line close < $2,795 before opening short.
Bottoming plan, staggered limit orders 2770 (20%) → 2730 (30%) BOLL middle band!
Fifth, Focus on Market Watching in the Next 3 Hours
1. Volume changes, if two consecutive 15-minute K-lines have volume < 30,000 ETH, false breakout confirmed.
2. BOLL Channel, if price falls below 2810, it will trigger the BOLL upper band resistance effect.
3. Whale Movements, monitor on-chain giant whale transfers > 50,000 ETH into exchanges for warning selling pressure.
False breakout probability > 60%, market sentiment is weak before CPI announcement, RSI > 82 is a strong warning signal.
Do not chase high, do not hold the position, rather miss the 2800 profit than risk a 200 pullback.
1. Intensified Volume-Price Divergence
Price hits a new high of 2834.23 vs Trading volume shrinks to 166,000 ETH vs Previous value 1,249,000 → Insufficient volume at previous high 13%, the breakthrough foundation is unstable.
2. RSI Extremely Overbought
RSI(6)=82.26 in historical peak value range, in the past 3 years, the probability of a pullback within 72 hours after exceeding 82 is greater than 85%.
3. BOLL Upper Band Resistance
Price is close to the upper band of 2842.86, the BOLL band opens wider, but has not formed an effective breakout.
Historical pattern shows that the probability of a pullback after the first touch of the BOLL upper band is greater than 70%.
4. MACD Momentum Diminishing
MACD bar (28.63) is below the previous high of 29.02, a top divergence is taking shape, DIF and DEA opening narrowing from 70.60 to 41.97.
5. Derivatives Overheated
Perpetual contract funding rate, 0.035% Binance annualized 126%
Long-Short Ratio: 4.8:1 extremely skewed, liquidation heat map shows 120 million long liquidations at 2790.
Second, Long and Short Key Position Verification
Long position at 2830-2842 needs a 30-minute volume greater than 200,000 ETH to stabilize.
Short position at 2795, if it breaches, confirms false breakout, trendline break.
Strong support at 2750-2770 BOLL middle band + previous high conversion support zone. Current price at 2818 is only 0.8% away from the short defense line, very low margin for error.
Third, False Breakout Probability Deduction
Rapid pullback 60%, breaches 2795 within 1 hour to 2750-2,770.
Induce long then kill 25%, false spike to 2830 then flash crash below 2700.
True breakout 15% stabilizing at 2830 with sustained volume increase -2900.
Core Basis
In the past 24 hours, 65% of the trading volume above 2800 concentrated in the 2795-2810 chip dense area, a breakthrough requires new funds to drive.
- 9.5 hours before CPI announcement, market risk aversion sentiment rises.
Fourth, Emergency Operation Strategy
No position/light position
Prohibit chasing long, extreme overbought zone risk-reward ratio unbalanced, profit-loss ratio < 1:1.
Shorting Opportunities
Aggressive party current price light short position ≤ 3%, stop loss at 2835, target at 2770.
Conservative party, wait for 30-minute K-line close < $2,795 before opening short.
Bottoming plan, staggered limit orders 2770 (20%) → 2730 (30%) BOLL middle band!
Fifth, Focus on Market Watching in the Next 3 Hours
1. Volume changes, if two consecutive 15-minute K-lines have volume < 30,000 ETH, false breakout confirmed.
2. BOLL Channel, if price falls below 2810, it will trigger the BOLL upper band resistance effect.
3. Whale Movements, monitor on-chain giant whale transfers > 50,000 ETH into exchanges for warning selling pressure.
False breakout probability > 60%, market sentiment is weak before CPI announcement, RSI > 82 is a strong warning signal.
Do not chase high, do not hold the position, rather miss the 2800 profit than risk a 200 pullback.
See original
Pay attention to the short position opened at 2450–70 by $ETH . If the non-farm payroll data is released and the price breaks 2530, unconditional stop loss!
Short term 1-2 weeks, oscillating bias bearish: Before the release of non-farm payroll data, the expected range is 2400-2500. If the data is positive, the rebound upper limit is 2750; if negative, it may test 2110.
Bull-bear boundary:
Bullish reversal condition: Recover 2500 and stabilize, break 2750, 200-day moving average.
Continuation drop signal: If the daily close is below 2432, the target is down to 2260.
Key observation points:
>- Non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve statements.
> - SEC ruling on Grayscale ETF is the biggest short-term risk.
> - Monitor on-chain whale movements focusing on the 2400 cost area support.
Key indicators:
1. Moving average system
MA(5) 2,464.19 short-term support → Current price above MA5 2482 > 2464
MA(30) 2516.85 core resistance → Maximum pressure point above
Bull-bear pattern: Price oscillating in the 2464~2516 range, still weak rebound until breaking MA30
2. Volume signal
Latest VOL: 403 million < MA(5): 435 million → Insufficient rebound volume, beware of false breakouts
Funding rate 0.00166% neutral → No strong bullish or bearish sentiment
3. Liquidation risk
Long position liquidation 2.0594 million vs short position liquidation 159.6 thousand
→ The market still has long leverage liquidation pressure, favorable for shorts
Operational strategy
Do not increase positions, choose to be cautious
Hold existing short positions, move stop loss up to 2517 (above MA30)
Target take profit 2432, after breaking watch 2390
Basis - Insufficient volume makes it difficult for the rebound to continue - Non-farm payroll data is imminent at 20:30, avoid two-way volatility risk
Conditions for aggressive strategy
Only increase positions when the following conditions are met simultaneously:
Price rebounds to the 2500-2516 range (MA30 pressure area)
RSI(1h) >70 (confirmation of overbought)
VOL continues to shrink (MA5 volume line downwards)
→ After increasing positions, total stop loss 2530, target 2390 risk-reward ratio 1:4
Before the data release, maintain existing positions and do not open new positions
Non-farm > expected | Hold short, break 2432 increase position 2390 → 2350
Non-farm < expected | Close short, reverse to long | 2516 → 2580
If the price breaks 2530, unconditional stop loss and switch to a wave-long position!
Key reminder, the current price is in the rebound exhaustion zone, but the reversal is not confirmed, non-farm payroll data may trigger ±5% volatility, prioritize preserving capital!
#我的COS交易 #加密市场回调
Short term 1-2 weeks, oscillating bias bearish: Before the release of non-farm payroll data, the expected range is 2400-2500. If the data is positive, the rebound upper limit is 2750; if negative, it may test 2110.
Bull-bear boundary:
Bullish reversal condition: Recover 2500 and stabilize, break 2750, 200-day moving average.
Continuation drop signal: If the daily close is below 2432, the target is down to 2260.
Key observation points:
>- Non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve statements.
> - SEC ruling on Grayscale ETF is the biggest short-term risk.
> - Monitor on-chain whale movements focusing on the 2400 cost area support.
Key indicators:
1. Moving average system
MA(5) 2,464.19 short-term support → Current price above MA5 2482 > 2464
MA(30) 2516.85 core resistance → Maximum pressure point above
Bull-bear pattern: Price oscillating in the 2464~2516 range, still weak rebound until breaking MA30
2. Volume signal
Latest VOL: 403 million < MA(5): 435 million → Insufficient rebound volume, beware of false breakouts
Funding rate 0.00166% neutral → No strong bullish or bearish sentiment
3. Liquidation risk
Long position liquidation 2.0594 million vs short position liquidation 159.6 thousand
→ The market still has long leverage liquidation pressure, favorable for shorts
Operational strategy
Do not increase positions, choose to be cautious
Hold existing short positions, move stop loss up to 2517 (above MA30)
Target take profit 2432, after breaking watch 2390
Basis - Insufficient volume makes it difficult for the rebound to continue - Non-farm payroll data is imminent at 20:30, avoid two-way volatility risk
Conditions for aggressive strategy
Only increase positions when the following conditions are met simultaneously:
Price rebounds to the 2500-2516 range (MA30 pressure area)
RSI(1h) >70 (confirmation of overbought)
VOL continues to shrink (MA5 volume line downwards)
→ After increasing positions, total stop loss 2530, target 2390 risk-reward ratio 1:4
Before the data release, maintain existing positions and do not open new positions
Non-farm > expected | Hold short, break 2432 increase position 2390 → 2350
Non-farm < expected | Close short, reverse to long | 2516 → 2580
If the price breaks 2530, unconditional stop loss and switch to a wave-long position!
Key reminder, the current price is in the rebound exhaustion zone, but the reversal is not confirmed, non-farm payroll data may trigger ±5% volatility, prioritize preserving capital!
#我的COS交易 #加密市场回调
See original
$ETH As expected, it was predicted yesterday at noon that there would definitely be a unilateral market within 24 hours. The dog dealer was very professional in controlling the market yesterday, testing patience. Yesterday, I analyzed with fans at the 2630 position that a 2% decline at 2630 would be the black swan for the bulls!
Thanks to Ethereum, we have successfully made a big profit again. In fact, during this upward trend, I haven't captured much of the market. My followers who understand me know that I have never missed a chance during the downward trend, but that doesn't mean I don't go long. The market is alive, and so are people!
Still, the same words: as a full-time trader, trading always waits for an opportunity; the trend comes first, and positioning comes later! Friends who are losing shouldn't be too anxious. If you have patience and can control your mindset, waiting for the trading opportunity to take a big plunge can help you recover. Let's see if this short position can reach 1800. Currently, many cryptocurrencies have already retraced to April's prices, and Ethereum was at the 1800 position in early April!
Shendan is still positioning. Friends who want to accurately find entry points to profit can click to follow for constant strategy updates!
$ETH
#特朗普马斯克分歧 #加密市场回调
Thanks to Ethereum, we have successfully made a big profit again. In fact, during this upward trend, I haven't captured much of the market. My followers who understand me know that I have never missed a chance during the downward trend, but that doesn't mean I don't go long. The market is alive, and so are people!
Still, the same words: as a full-time trader, trading always waits for an opportunity; the trend comes first, and positioning comes later! Friends who are losing shouldn't be too anxious. If you have patience and can control your mindset, waiting for the trading opportunity to take a big plunge can help you recover. Let's see if this short position can reach 1800. Currently, many cryptocurrencies have already retraced to April's prices, and Ethereum was at the 1800 position in early April!
Shendan is still positioning. Friends who want to accurately find entry points to profit can click to follow for constant strategy updates!
$ETH
#特朗普马斯克分歧 #加密市场回调
See original
$BTC has been watching the market for 24 hours, and the order came out successfully profiting. A warm reminder, recently Ethereum has been developing its own market; if you are not sure, do not open orders randomly. The support at 2600 was closely monitored last night, and it was tested 6 or 7 times before 6 PM without breaking, showing a clear defense by the whales. However, I still chose to enter a short position at 2630—40, successfully capturing this wave of decline. This is based on the signals given by your trading system and market intuition; trading is all about timing!
An interesting topic today, a fan shared a mechanical execution trading strategy, so let me briefly share my views on trading systems!
Efficiency and Cost:
Mechanical: Suitable for highly repetitive and standardized tasks, like assembly line production, able to perform rapidly in bulk. In the long run, costs may be lower, but the initial equipment investment is significant.
Manual: High flexibility, suitable for tasks that require adaptability, such as creative design, but labor costs may rise over time, and efficiency is influenced by individual conditions.
Precision and Adaptability
Mechanical: Stable precision, such as precision parts machining, executes programs with minimal errors but has poor adaptability to non-standard tasks.
Manual: Can handle complex and variable situations, such as personalized needs in the service industry, but precision may fluctuate based on experience.
If you are trading contracts in the cryptocurrency space, I do not recommend mechanical operations, even if it provides you with entry points and strategies, and logic for opening orders; as a qualified trader, you must also possess these skills yourself!
The market is ever-changing, and the only correct answers come from your own brain! People can adjust positions or stop-loss points in response to sudden news or market sentiment, avoiding losses due to delayed mechanical strategies caused by preset rules.
Subjectively selecting opportunities, judging hot cryptocurrencies or trend turning points through experience, such as capturing short-term volatility opportunities of niche coins while mainstream coins are consolidating, is more effective than fixed programs in seizing instantaneous market conditions.
There are many trading systems, and when you can achieve stable profits, having internalized operations and strictly executing them, you can consider yourself to have your own system. Never frequently open orders in trading, follow your own way of thinking, summarize more, and review more. Proper position management is the key to profiting!
An interesting topic today, a fan shared a mechanical execution trading strategy, so let me briefly share my views on trading systems!
Efficiency and Cost:
Mechanical: Suitable for highly repetitive and standardized tasks, like assembly line production, able to perform rapidly in bulk. In the long run, costs may be lower, but the initial equipment investment is significant.
Manual: High flexibility, suitable for tasks that require adaptability, such as creative design, but labor costs may rise over time, and efficiency is influenced by individual conditions.
Precision and Adaptability
Mechanical: Stable precision, such as precision parts machining, executes programs with minimal errors but has poor adaptability to non-standard tasks.
Manual: Can handle complex and variable situations, such as personalized needs in the service industry, but precision may fluctuate based on experience.
If you are trading contracts in the cryptocurrency space, I do not recommend mechanical operations, even if it provides you with entry points and strategies, and logic for opening orders; as a qualified trader, you must also possess these skills yourself!
The market is ever-changing, and the only correct answers come from your own brain! People can adjust positions or stop-loss points in response to sudden news or market sentiment, avoiding losses due to delayed mechanical strategies caused by preset rules.
Subjectively selecting opportunities, judging hot cryptocurrencies or trend turning points through experience, such as capturing short-term volatility opportunities of niche coins while mainstream coins are consolidating, is more effective than fixed programs in seizing instantaneous market conditions.
There are many trading systems, and when you can achieve stable profits, having internalized operations and strictly executing them, you can consider yourself to have your own system. Never frequently open orders in trading, follow your own way of thinking, summarize more, and review more. Proper position management is the key to profiting!
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Bitcoin's recent operational strategy for Ethereum, as well as entry points, can be referenced; I am still cautious about precise points because the market is variable.
Ethereum to 2000? → Probability over 60%, and after breaking, it may continue to decline; be cautious when bottom fishing.
Bitcoin retracing to 90,000? → Short-term probability of 50%, but requires macro-negative factors; otherwise, there is strong support at 93,000-95,000.
The 90,000 dollar support level is currently recognized as a key position in the market. Standard Chartered Bank has clearly warned: If BTC "clearly breaks below 90,000 dollars," it may trigger large-scale ETF liquidation, leading to a second bottom test at 80,000 with a drop of about 10%.
Short-term catalysts:
June 19th Federal Reserve meeting: If Powell releases a hawkish signal and does not cut interest rates, it may exacerbate selling pressure.
It is recommended to closely monitor the June 19th Federal Reserve meeting and the ETH/BTC exchange rate; these two variables will be the core factors determining price direction next week. If ETH continues to be weak, BTC will also struggle to stand alone.
Bitcoin operational suggestions:
Aggressive short: Short at 106,600 on rebound, stop loss at 108,000.
Steady bottom fishing: Gradually position in the range of 97,600-101,200, stop loss at 95,000.
Trend breakout: If it stabilizes above 110,000, chase long positions, target 115,000+.
Ethereum operational suggestions:
Aggressive short: Short at 2,600 on rebound, stop loss at 2,700.
Steady bottom fishing: Build positions in the range of 2,250-2,300, stop loss at 2,150.
Trend breakout: If it breaks above 2,800, chase long positions, target 3,000-3,400.
Summary
BTC: Short-term fluctuations lean bearish, with 104,000-106,000 being the dividing line between bulls and bears; a deep drop requires macro-negative factors.
ETH: Weakness persists, with 2,460-2,600 being the critical line; be cautious when bottom fishing before breaking through.
Adjust positions dynamically in line with the Federal Reserve's policies and tariff event developments, and kindly remind you to set stop losses strictly and manage your positions well.
Take a good rest this weekend, go play ball, today I am again the most stylish guy on the street court! 🤩
Tomorrow is Monday, the start of a new month; keep a close watch on the market, and trade well. Ethereum is preparing for short-term gains of 100-180 points; interested friends can pay more attention. 🔝
Historically, I held a long position for a month; on March 3rd, I made a short at Ethereum 2,478 and held it to 1,450, gaining over a thousand points. This trade is close to achieving my target returns for this year; old fans should know this well!
#FTX赔付 #加密市场回调
#特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库
Ethereum to 2000? → Probability over 60%, and after breaking, it may continue to decline; be cautious when bottom fishing.
Bitcoin retracing to 90,000? → Short-term probability of 50%, but requires macro-negative factors; otherwise, there is strong support at 93,000-95,000.
The 90,000 dollar support level is currently recognized as a key position in the market. Standard Chartered Bank has clearly warned: If BTC "clearly breaks below 90,000 dollars," it may trigger large-scale ETF liquidation, leading to a second bottom test at 80,000 with a drop of about 10%.
Short-term catalysts:
June 19th Federal Reserve meeting: If Powell releases a hawkish signal and does not cut interest rates, it may exacerbate selling pressure.
It is recommended to closely monitor the June 19th Federal Reserve meeting and the ETH/BTC exchange rate; these two variables will be the core factors determining price direction next week. If ETH continues to be weak, BTC will also struggle to stand alone.
Bitcoin operational suggestions:
Aggressive short: Short at 106,600 on rebound, stop loss at 108,000.
Steady bottom fishing: Gradually position in the range of 97,600-101,200, stop loss at 95,000.
Trend breakout: If it stabilizes above 110,000, chase long positions, target 115,000+.
Ethereum operational suggestions:
Aggressive short: Short at 2,600 on rebound, stop loss at 2,700.
Steady bottom fishing: Build positions in the range of 2,250-2,300, stop loss at 2,150.
Trend breakout: If it breaks above 2,800, chase long positions, target 3,000-3,400.
Summary
BTC: Short-term fluctuations lean bearish, with 104,000-106,000 being the dividing line between bulls and bears; a deep drop requires macro-negative factors.
ETH: Weakness persists, with 2,460-2,600 being the critical line; be cautious when bottom fishing before breaking through.
Adjust positions dynamically in line with the Federal Reserve's policies and tariff event developments, and kindly remind you to set stop losses strictly and manage your positions well.
Take a good rest this weekend, go play ball, today I am again the most stylish guy on the street court! 🤩
Tomorrow is Monday, the start of a new month; keep a close watch on the market, and trade well. Ethereum is preparing for short-term gains of 100-180 points; interested friends can pay more attention. 🔝
Historically, I held a long position for a month; on March 3rd, I made a short at Ethereum 2,478 and held it to 1,450, gaining over a thousand points. This trade is close to achieving my target returns for this year; old fans should know this well!
#FTX赔付 #加密市场回调
#特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库
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$BTC The Three Kingdoms are hunting the crypto world! Thailand bans exchanges, South Korea allows tax-free trading, and CME swallows up 96% of the market value!
1. The Thai government announced: Starting from June 28, Bybit, OKX and other 5 exchanges will be completely banned for the reason of operating without a license!
What should users do?
Transfer assets immediately! If you don’t transfer them before June 28, you may not get your money back, and you may even be held accountable.
Why is it banned suddenly?
There are two real purposes: to eliminate the risk of money laundering and use the new law "Technology Crime Law" as a weapon
Paving the way for its own digital currency, the national version of the digital asset G-Token will be launched in July, and it is only allowed to be traded on licensed exchanges
Thailand clears the "wild road" exchanges, forcing users to switch to regular platforms, and clearing obstacles for the listing of the national digital currency G-Token.
2. South Korea exempts non-profit organizations from crypto trading fees, effective in June
Policy core: South Korea's FSC allows non-profit organizations and exchanges to trade cryptocurrencies for free from June, covering the three major platforms of Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone (accounting for 85% of the country's trading volume).
Restrictions: Cryptocurrencies accepted for donation must be converted into Korean won to ensure anti-money laundering compliance and financial transparency.
Industry significance: South Korea's crypto donations will reach 140 million + 38% in 2024. The new regulations may promote the flow of funds on the chain in the charity field and attract global donations
3. CME's four new crypto indexes will be launched on June 2
Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME and CF Benchmarks jointly launched reference interest rates and real-time indices for Arbitrum, Sui, NEAR, and Ondo, covering more than 96% of the investable crypto market value.
Institutional impact: The new index provides pricing tools for funds and structured products, accelerating the integration of Layer1 and DeFi assets into the traditional financial system. For example, Ondo has added additional New York time quotes to meet cross-time zone needs.
4. Market volatility and liquidation risk
On May 30, Bitcoin fell below $105,000 (-3%), Ethereum and Dogecoin fell 5% and 10% respectively, and the entire network liquidated $711 million in 24 hours, with more than 210,000 people liquidated.
Policy correlation: The main reasons for the plunge were repeated US tariffs and weak inflation data, and the news of Thailand's blockade of exchanges exacerbated panic. Previously, on May 22, Bitcoin hit a new high of $110,800, and Trump's voice boosted market sentiment.
Institutional dynamics, FTX initiated bankruptcy claim payments on May 30, using $11.4 billion in cash reserves to repay major creditors.
#FTX赔付 #交易类型入门
1. The Thai government announced: Starting from June 28, Bybit, OKX and other 5 exchanges will be completely banned for the reason of operating without a license!
What should users do?
Transfer assets immediately! If you don’t transfer them before June 28, you may not get your money back, and you may even be held accountable.
Why is it banned suddenly?
There are two real purposes: to eliminate the risk of money laundering and use the new law "Technology Crime Law" as a weapon
Paving the way for its own digital currency, the national version of the digital asset G-Token will be launched in July, and it is only allowed to be traded on licensed exchanges
Thailand clears the "wild road" exchanges, forcing users to switch to regular platforms, and clearing obstacles for the listing of the national digital currency G-Token.
2. South Korea exempts non-profit organizations from crypto trading fees, effective in June
Policy core: South Korea's FSC allows non-profit organizations and exchanges to trade cryptocurrencies for free from June, covering the three major platforms of Upbit, Bithumb, and Coinone (accounting for 85% of the country's trading volume).
Restrictions: Cryptocurrencies accepted for donation must be converted into Korean won to ensure anti-money laundering compliance and financial transparency.
Industry significance: South Korea's crypto donations will reach 140 million + 38% in 2024. The new regulations may promote the flow of funds on the chain in the charity field and attract global donations
3. CME's four new crypto indexes will be launched on June 2
Chicago Mercantile Exchange CME and CF Benchmarks jointly launched reference interest rates and real-time indices for Arbitrum, Sui, NEAR, and Ondo, covering more than 96% of the investable crypto market value.
Institutional impact: The new index provides pricing tools for funds and structured products, accelerating the integration of Layer1 and DeFi assets into the traditional financial system. For example, Ondo has added additional New York time quotes to meet cross-time zone needs.
4. Market volatility and liquidation risk
On May 30, Bitcoin fell below $105,000 (-3%), Ethereum and Dogecoin fell 5% and 10% respectively, and the entire network liquidated $711 million in 24 hours, with more than 210,000 people liquidated.
Policy correlation: The main reasons for the plunge were repeated US tariffs and weak inflation data, and the news of Thailand's blockade of exchanges exacerbated panic. Previously, on May 22, Bitcoin hit a new high of $110,800, and Trump's voice boosted market sentiment.
Institutional dynamics, FTX initiated bankruptcy claim payments on May 30, using $11.4 billion in cash reserves to repay major creditors.
#FTX赔付 #交易类型入门
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$ETH Newton Gauss was born before me, is he the early bird or avoiding my brilliance.
King Qin Ying Zheng was born a thousand years before me, is he afraid of my three points or is it kings not seeing each other.
When I close my eyes, it's dark, when I open my eyes, it's bright, if I'm not the protagonist, who is the protagonist.
I want to look in the mirror, but the divine has no form, you are a dam a thousand miles long, but I am just an ant hole!
King Qin Ying Zheng was born a thousand years before me, is he afraid of my three points or is it kings not seeing each other.
When I close my eyes, it's dark, when I open my eyes, it's bright, if I'm not the protagonist, who is the protagonist.
I want to look in the mirror, but the divine has no form, you are a dam a thousand miles long, but I am just an ant hole!
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On the morning of $ETH , I entered short positions 2685 and 2705, which led to being trapped, resulting in a loss of over 1100 U. Later, with the reversal, I made nearly 1000 U profit, during which I went without sleep for a full 24 hours!
Among them, 2 hours of calls were all psychological guidance, this is professionalism, capturing this wave of market movements. Fans accidentally exceeded the daily target of 500 U again and again! 😼
This is what is called peace of mind, providing strategies and direction, you just need to enjoy the profits!
A friendly reminder, set your take profit and stop loss, and manage your positions well! If you want to follow the trades and keep up with the strategies, friends can click 🔝 to follow to receive the latest strategies in Binance Square!
#交易类型入门 #美国加征关税
Among them, 2 hours of calls were all psychological guidance, this is professionalism, capturing this wave of market movements. Fans accidentally exceeded the daily target of 500 U again and again! 😼
This is what is called peace of mind, providing strategies and direction, you just need to enjoy the profits!
A friendly reminder, set your take profit and stop loss, and manage your positions well! If you want to follow the trades and keep up with the strategies, friends can click 🔝 to follow to receive the latest strategies in Binance Square!
#交易类型入门 #美国加征关税
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With a principal of $ETH 2kU in the crypto world, earning a stable profit of 500u a day, what more do you need? 🚲
As usual, I take two trades a day. A friend with 2kU in funds has already doubled their earnings in four days. Currently, I'm only using profits for trading, making two trades a day, and this is the happiness of stability!
No need to worry, just set your take profit and stop loss when entering trades, isn’t it nice to lie back and enjoy the gains?
At the beginning of the month, I plan to challenge with 10 accounts of 2ku, aiming for a target profit of 2kU---20kU by the end of the month, moving steadily forward! 🔝
A friendly reminder: set your take profit and stop loss well, protect your wallet balance, and avoid trading blindly or too frequently!
Wishing all the brothers and sisters in the crypto world stable daily earnings and abundant wealth!
#币安HODLer空投SOPH #比特币2025大会
#特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库
As usual, I take two trades a day. A friend with 2kU in funds has already doubled their earnings in four days. Currently, I'm only using profits for trading, making two trades a day, and this is the happiness of stability!
No need to worry, just set your take profit and stop loss when entering trades, isn’t it nice to lie back and enjoy the gains?
At the beginning of the month, I plan to challenge with 10 accounts of 2ku, aiming for a target profit of 2kU---20kU by the end of the month, moving steadily forward! 🔝
A friendly reminder: set your take profit and stop loss well, protect your wallet balance, and avoid trading blindly or too frequently!
Wishing all the brothers and sisters in the crypto world stable daily earnings and abundant wealth!
#币安HODLer空投SOPH #比特币2025大会
#特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库
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