At 9:15 on August 8, $ETH Ethereum, the current price is 3913, with a 24-hour high of 3935.88 approaching the psychological barrier of 4000. After all, liquidity in the Asian market is typically lower than in the European and American sessions, making false breakouts or narrow fluctuations more likely.

Several key changes in the latest data show that the price broke through the previous high of 3865 and continued to rise to 3935. The upper Bollinger Band expanded to 3957, the MACD double line golden cross occurred and the histogram turned positive, and the RSI is all above 66, indicating overbought but not extreme.

In particular, the 24-hour trading volume surged to 24 billion USDT, which is 12 times that of the previous occasion, clearly indicating the entrance of institutional funds.

If the Asian session cannot break through the resistance at 3957, there may be an opportunity for a pullback. It is important to note three typical risks in the Asian market:

First, the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs is usually dominated by the European and American sessions, with insufficient follow-through momentum in the Asian session.

Second, the Japanese early session often sees a "long kill long" pullback.

Third, the current RSI is overbought but not yet saturated, indicating room for technical correction.

However, from a macro linkage perspective, the overnight US stock market NASDAQ rose by 0.58%, which may still have a lagging effect, and if the US dollar index at 98.267 weakens, it will be beneficial for risk assets.

It is recommended to closely monitor two positions: whether the upper level of 3935 forms a double top and the lower level of 3820 turning from previous high to support. If the Asian session retraces to 3820 with reduced volume, partial profit-taking can be considered. If it breaks 3950 with increased volume, stop loss is necessary.

Key time nodes:

Morning session from 8:00 to 10:00 to digest overnight movements and test directions.

Afternoon session from 13:00 to 15:00 after the close of the Asia-Pacific stock market, volatility may increase.

Current focus of the long-short game:

Bullish momentum from the overnight rise in US stocks and the technical breakthrough of the previous high of 3865, with strong trend continuity.

Bearish opportunity, RSI overbought and approaching the upper Bollinger Band at 3957, indicating a need for a pullback.

New opening strategy for the Asian session:

Bullish, only enter with light positions near 3850 during a pullback and reduced volume, target 3935, stop loss at 3820.

Avoid chasing highs; the current price is close to strong resistance, and the upward space in the Asian session is limited.

Bearish, observe whether there are signs of stagnation in the 3935-3957 area (long upper shadow + shrinking volume), then lightly test the short position, stop loss at 3970, target 3850.

Beware of sharp highs and falls! After a big overnight rise, the Asian session often sees technical corrections. It is advisable to remain cautious in empty positions and wait for direction confirmation during the high liquidity periods of the European and American sessions.

If the Asian session maintains a sideways trend between 3870-3920, retain funds and wait for volatility opportunities in the European and American sessions.

Still the same advice: enter at any level with a good stop loss— the current market is dominated by institutions, and retail investors in the Asian session can easily be cleaned out.

Sleeping 💤