$ETH 8.9 #Week 6 Ethereum Current Price 4175, 24-hour increase +6.42%, highest reached 4220, only 15% away from the historical high of 4878.

1. Key Levels:

Resistance 4220, 24h previous high → 4262 Fibonacci 138.2% extension level.

Support 4039 Bollinger middle band → 3901 Bollinger lower band.

2. Technical Indicators Bullish/Bearish Signals:

Bullish strength, MACD bar expanding to +9.45 accelerating upward, Bollinger Band opening upwards upper band 4176.

Pullback warning, RSI(6) 80.27 severely overbought, the probability of pullback in the last 3 months is 85%, volume contraction Vol 114K < MA5 416K significant volume-price divergence.

3. On-chain Key Signals:

Whale holding TOP5 addresses transferred 12,000 ETH to exchanges within 1 hour suspected of cashing out, perpetual contract funding rate +0.35%, bullish annualized cost > 120%, overheated leverage.

Three major trend projections and response strategies:

1. Chance of Pullback 60%:

Trigger condition unable to hold above 4176 Bollinger upper band, condition 15-minute chart shows long upper shadow + RSI(6) turning down.

Short near 4195, light position 5%, stop loss 4230,

Target 4039 → 3901.

2. Short Squeeze Upward Chance 30%:

Condition factors, ETH spot ETF suddenly approved / BlackRock increase holding announcement

Key resistance 4262—-4500.

Long if break above 4220 and volume > 200K, 5% position, stop loss 4180, target 4350.

3. High-level Range Fluctuation, Chance 10%:

Range 4045—4220, operation strategy long at 4050 and short at 4200, each 4% position, take profit 80 points, stop loss 40 points.

On Saturday, focus on defense, avoid heavy positions! Retain 90% of funds waiting for direction confirmation after Monday’s US stock market opens. Closely monitor

4220–4262 key resistance zone.

Current liquidating area for short positions is 4100-4200. From the data, 1 hour ago liquidation data shows short position liquidation of 112 million USD, indicating there are still a large number of bearish chips in the market, which may lead to a continuation of the short squeeze.

Remember to always set stop losses when entering at any level to prevent liquidation caused by price spikes!!!