亮哥讲币
公众号{亮哥说趋势）币圈多年经验与专业知识，持续追踪市场动态，运用技术与基本面分析，精准洞察加密货币价格走势，精准行情预判与合理操作策略
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Recently, many people have asked me: After the big drop on October 11, it rebounded for a few days, and now it's weak again. Will there be a second bottom test?
Actually, this needs to be discussed separately — the situation of mainstream coins and altcoins is completely different, so don't confuse them.
First, let's look at mainstream coins. It's not surprising to say that BTC and ETH may have a second test, but to say they will break through key levels, I think the probability is low.
Take ETH as an example; the possibility of it dropping to 3400 in the short term is very low.
That level has been a dense trading area for the past two years, and after breaking through, it has become strong support.
On October 11, even the short sellers' massive attack did not break through, and it was pulled back by the bulls, indicating that this defense line is very stable.
The recent pullback is indeed a decline, but the volume has clearly shrunk — the strength of the short sellers is leaking.
To put it simply: the first time, a hundred thousand troops couldn't capture the position, and now only ten thousand are charging again, which is basically impossible to take.
Looking at the $ETH 4-hour chart makes it clearer: during the first big drop, the short sellers were indeed fierce, but were countered by the bulls with long lower shadows;
The subsequent two drops were weaker each time, with decreasing volume, clearly indicating that the short sellers are losing strength.
So, that wave on October 11 looks more like the last struggle of the short sellers, not the start of a bear market.
Washing in a bull market often looks like this; it seems scary on the surface, but it’s actually just trying to shake off the indecisive people.
On the BTC side, it's simpler: if it pulls back to the range of 100,000 to 107,000, just buy spot without overthinking, this range has enough safety cushion.
As for altcoins, don’t follow the hype of “second test breaking new lows,” it’s a bit exaggerated.
Many altcoins have plunged dozens of times before, and the current weakness is due to too many short-term spot sell orders that need time to digest.
The good news is that on-chain trading volume has recently increased significantly, but the bad news is very real: in the future, some altcoins will definitely face the risk of being delisted and going to zero, so don’t randomly catch the bottom.
To summarize: the pullback of mainstream coins is an opportunity, and altcoins should wait until the sell orders are digested before looking again, don’t be swayed by short-term fluctuations.
Liang only does real trading; the team still has positions available, come quickly to catch every wave of the market #加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH
Actually, this needs to be discussed separately — the situation of mainstream coins and altcoins is completely different, so don't confuse them.
First, let's look at mainstream coins. It's not surprising to say that BTC and ETH may have a second test, but to say they will break through key levels, I think the probability is low.
Take ETH as an example; the possibility of it dropping to 3400 in the short term is very low.
That level has been a dense trading area for the past two years, and after breaking through, it has become strong support.
On October 11, even the short sellers' massive attack did not break through, and it was pulled back by the bulls, indicating that this defense line is very stable.
The recent pullback is indeed a decline, but the volume has clearly shrunk — the strength of the short sellers is leaking.
To put it simply: the first time, a hundred thousand troops couldn't capture the position, and now only ten thousand are charging again, which is basically impossible to take.
Looking at the $ETH 4-hour chart makes it clearer: during the first big drop, the short sellers were indeed fierce, but were countered by the bulls with long lower shadows;
The subsequent two drops were weaker each time, with decreasing volume, clearly indicating that the short sellers are losing strength.
So, that wave on October 11 looks more like the last struggle of the short sellers, not the start of a bear market.
Washing in a bull market often looks like this; it seems scary on the surface, but it’s actually just trying to shake off the indecisive people.
On the BTC side, it's simpler: if it pulls back to the range of 100,000 to 107,000, just buy spot without overthinking, this range has enough safety cushion.
As for altcoins, don’t follow the hype of “second test breaking new lows,” it’s a bit exaggerated.
Many altcoins have plunged dozens of times before, and the current weakness is due to too many short-term spot sell orders that need time to digest.
The good news is that on-chain trading volume has recently increased significantly, but the bad news is very real: in the future, some altcoins will definitely face the risk of being delisted and going to zero, so don’t randomly catch the bottom.
To summarize: the pullback of mainstream coins is an opportunity, and altcoins should wait until the sell orders are digested before looking again, don’t be swayed by short-term fluctuations.
Liang only does real trading; the team still has positions available, come quickly to catch every wave of the market #加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH
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Brothers, today we're not fooling around. I'm going to teach you a hardcore strategy that I personally ran — from 2000U to 200,000U, I've really done it. If you don't believe it, come debate!
Step 1: Load the bullets, not aiming for a guaranteed win, just aiming to survive.
Split 2000U directly into 40 shots, with each shot not exceeding 100U.
If you lose, treat it as feeding the dogs, keep your mindset calm — what you want is a comeback, not just survival.
Remember the formula for getting rich:
After the first win → Capital + 50% profit ALL IN on the next shot.
During a winning streak → Bet a fixed 2% of total funds, be steady like an old dog!
Step 2: Only follow signals, don't trust feelings.
These days, those who trust their feelings end up lying flat. I only focus on these two signals:
Hourly EMA7 crossing EMA21 — Start signal!
4-hour MACD golden cross below zero axis + red bars taking off — Win rate 68%!
If you miss it, wait for the next bus, don’t chase! Understanding how to wait is the first step to maturity.
Step 3: Ironclad risk control, if you don't guard, get out.
Set take profit and stop loss as soon as you open a position:
1% stop loss + 3% take profit, no hesitation!
Once the order is done, set a timer to lock the screen. Those who stare at the market for over 5 minutes are just sending themselves to the slaughter.
Step 4: Choose the time, it's the difference between raising a coffin or raising money.
Best attack window: 1 AM to 3 AM — Big fluctuations, clean and efficient.
Death time period: The first 3 days of each month + Friday night 8-10 PM, institutions clean up, don’t go and give away.
Ultimate mindset: Slow is fast, less is more.
Only follow high win rate signals, don’t gamble, don’t be impulsive;
If you win, increase your position; if you lose, stop immediately;
Time is greater than technique; only those who can endure can earn.
Lastly, I want to share a realization I had repeatedly after blowing up my account:
"When a trend comes, don’t be dazed. If you don’t increase your position on floating profits, you’re done.
So what if there’s a spike? I can still get on the bus tomorrow!"
If you have no direction in trading and want to recover and turn your account around, you can join us, and together we'll get rich in this bull market!!! #美联储降息预期 #现货黄金创历史新高 $BTC
Step 1: Load the bullets, not aiming for a guaranteed win, just aiming to survive.
Split 2000U directly into 40 shots, with each shot not exceeding 100U.
If you lose, treat it as feeding the dogs, keep your mindset calm — what you want is a comeback, not just survival.
Remember the formula for getting rich:
After the first win → Capital + 50% profit ALL IN on the next shot.
During a winning streak → Bet a fixed 2% of total funds, be steady like an old dog!
Step 2: Only follow signals, don't trust feelings.
These days, those who trust their feelings end up lying flat. I only focus on these two signals:
Hourly EMA7 crossing EMA21 — Start signal!
4-hour MACD golden cross below zero axis + red bars taking off — Win rate 68%!
If you miss it, wait for the next bus, don’t chase! Understanding how to wait is the first step to maturity.
Step 3: Ironclad risk control, if you don't guard, get out.
Set take profit and stop loss as soon as you open a position:
1% stop loss + 3% take profit, no hesitation!
Once the order is done, set a timer to lock the screen. Those who stare at the market for over 5 minutes are just sending themselves to the slaughter.
Step 4: Choose the time, it's the difference between raising a coffin or raising money.
Best attack window: 1 AM to 3 AM — Big fluctuations, clean and efficient.
Death time period: The first 3 days of each month + Friday night 8-10 PM, institutions clean up, don’t go and give away.
Ultimate mindset: Slow is fast, less is more.
Only follow high win rate signals, don’t gamble, don’t be impulsive;
If you win, increase your position; if you lose, stop immediately;
Time is greater than technique; only those who can endure can earn.
Lastly, I want to share a realization I had repeatedly after blowing up my account:
"When a trend comes, don’t be dazed. If you don’t increase your position on floating profits, you’re done.
So what if there’s a spike? I can still get on the bus tomorrow!"
If you have no direction in trading and want to recover and turn your account around, you can join us, and together we'll get rich in this bull market!!! #美联储降息预期 #现货黄金创历史新高 $BTC
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In the cryptocurrency world for 10 years, I've learned to keep my mouth shut.
In 2023, an older sister took my advice to buy Ethereum, and after a 50% increase, she kept asking every day: "Should I sell?"
I advised her to HODL, but she continued to nag, and I finally understood—she just wanted me to nod. So I said, "Sell it." She immediately placed a sell order, and ETH doubled shortly after. When she asked me about other coins, I brought up the meal she owed me for two years, and she stopped talking.
I entered the market in 2018, and after seven years, the higher my level, the fewer friends I have. Countless fans, constant likes, but not a single person truly understands.
They ask me: "Can this altcoin go up?" I reply: "I don’t know." They are shocked, thinking I’m pretending. But I really don’t know. Researching a project requires reading the white paper, unlocking curves, and analyzing on-chain data, which can take a month at best. When they ask how much it can rise, I still say I can’t be sure. Experts are not fortune tellers.
I advised relatives to buy BTC during a bull market, and they said: "Wait for the MEME to break even." I smiled wryly: "By the time you break even, Layer 2 will be in its third generation." They acknowledge that you are an expert, but want you to play by the logic of amateurs: only buy at low prices, only buy what they are stuck with, only sell when they want to sell. Just like a wife who can’t drive, but instructs the experienced driver every day.
Someone followed my trades, made a profit, and boasted in the group, even leveraged to surpass me. The next time they ask, I only counter with: "What’s in it for me?" Three years without red envelopes, I’m tired. I stay up late analyzing data, while they gamble their whole account in five minutes, and when they blow up, they blame me. Help once, bear the burden for a lifetime.
Once, when ETH formed perfectly, I told a friend to cash out, saying there was an anomaly on-chain. Later it really crashed, he avoided it but never contacted me again, thinking I was in the know. Another time I helped a friend double their SOL and escape at the peak, she complained that I didn’t call the highest point, and I was speechless.
A friend asked about profits, I took a screenshot of my wallet, and the other side became eternally silent. They called it showing off; back then, when they had villas and luxury cars, I was working. Who is showing off?
The loneliness in the cryptocurrency world is that you increase your position in a bear market while others cut losses; you escape at the peak, and others say you’re lucky.
In 10 years, I’ve learned to keep my mouth shut. If you also look at on-chain data and calculate unlocks, we don’t need to talk to understand each other. #美联储降息预期 $ETH
In 2023, an older sister took my advice to buy Ethereum, and after a 50% increase, she kept asking every day: "Should I sell?"
I advised her to HODL, but she continued to nag, and I finally understood—she just wanted me to nod. So I said, "Sell it." She immediately placed a sell order, and ETH doubled shortly after. When she asked me about other coins, I brought up the meal she owed me for two years, and she stopped talking.
I entered the market in 2018, and after seven years, the higher my level, the fewer friends I have. Countless fans, constant likes, but not a single person truly understands.
They ask me: "Can this altcoin go up?" I reply: "I don’t know." They are shocked, thinking I’m pretending. But I really don’t know. Researching a project requires reading the white paper, unlocking curves, and analyzing on-chain data, which can take a month at best. When they ask how much it can rise, I still say I can’t be sure. Experts are not fortune tellers.
I advised relatives to buy BTC during a bull market, and they said: "Wait for the MEME to break even." I smiled wryly: "By the time you break even, Layer 2 will be in its third generation." They acknowledge that you are an expert, but want you to play by the logic of amateurs: only buy at low prices, only buy what they are stuck with, only sell when they want to sell. Just like a wife who can’t drive, but instructs the experienced driver every day.
Someone followed my trades, made a profit, and boasted in the group, even leveraged to surpass me. The next time they ask, I only counter with: "What’s in it for me?" Three years without red envelopes, I’m tired. I stay up late analyzing data, while they gamble their whole account in five minutes, and when they blow up, they blame me. Help once, bear the burden for a lifetime.
Once, when ETH formed perfectly, I told a friend to cash out, saying there was an anomaly on-chain. Later it really crashed, he avoided it but never contacted me again, thinking I was in the know. Another time I helped a friend double their SOL and escape at the peak, she complained that I didn’t call the highest point, and I was speechless.
A friend asked about profits, I took a screenshot of my wallet, and the other side became eternally silent. They called it showing off; back then, when they had villas and luxury cars, I was working. Who is showing off?
The loneliness in the cryptocurrency world is that you increase your position in a bear market while others cut losses; you escape at the peak, and others say you’re lucky.
In 10 years, I’ve learned to keep my mouth shut. If you also look at on-chain data and calculate unlocks, we don’t need to talk to understand each other. #美联储降息预期 $ETH
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2 minutes to teach you how to turn an exchange into an ATM — no betting on direction, no watching the market, 5 years with 0 liquidation, rolling 5000U into seven figures, all thanks to a self-made "probability hedging table".
In 2017, I entered the market with 5000U, watching countless people get liquidated, mortgaged, and exit, while my account curve steadily went up, with the maximum drawdown never exceeding 8%.
I don't rely on insider information, I don't chase airdrops, and I don't believe in any "K-line secrets"; I just treat the market like a casino — but I'm the one running the casino. Today I will tell you my three knives for making money:
First, lock in profits and roll over with compound interest.
Set take profit and stop loss as soon as you place an order, once you earn 10% of the principal, immediately withdraw half to a cold wallet, letting the profits take risks while keeping the principal safe.
When the market is favorable, compound interest flies; when the market is against you, you only give back a bit of profit. Over the past 5 years, I've withdrawn more than 30 times, with a single week’s highest withdrawal of 180,000 U, and even had customer service suspecting "money laundering".
Second, build positions in a staggered manner and harvest with reverse thinking.
I focus on three time frames: daily trend, 4-hour range, and 15-minute point.
For one coin, I often open two positions — position A follows the trend to go long, position B sets a limit order to short.
Stop loss not exceeding 1.5% of the principal, and take profit pulled to over 5 times.
The market spends 80% of the time in consolidation, while others are getting liquidated, I can profit from both sides.
Third, treat stop losses as tickets, small losses for big wins.
Each stop loss is just a ticket price, waiting for the next bull run.
When the market is favorable, move the take profit to let profits run wild; if something feels off, withdraw immediately.
My win rate is only 38%, but the profit-loss ratio is close to 5:1, making it stable over the long term — for every 1U risked, I can earn 1.9U.
Additional suggestions:
Divide the funds into ten parts, only move one-tenth at a time.
If you lose on two consecutive trades, exit to cool down, and never open a "revenge trade".
When the account doubles, withdraw 20% to buy gold or US bonds, allowing for a stable sleep even in bear markets.
This method is simple yet counterintuitive. Remember — the market doesn’t fear your mistakes, it fears that you won’t recover after liquidating.
Learn these three tricks and start next week, let the exchange work for you.
Brother Liang only does real trades, the team still has spots available, come quickly to catch every wave of the market #鲍威尔发言 #加密市场回调 $BTC
In 2017, I entered the market with 5000U, watching countless people get liquidated, mortgaged, and exit, while my account curve steadily went up, with the maximum drawdown never exceeding 8%.
I don't rely on insider information, I don't chase airdrops, and I don't believe in any "K-line secrets"; I just treat the market like a casino — but I'm the one running the casino. Today I will tell you my three knives for making money:
First, lock in profits and roll over with compound interest.
Set take profit and stop loss as soon as you place an order, once you earn 10% of the principal, immediately withdraw half to a cold wallet, letting the profits take risks while keeping the principal safe.
When the market is favorable, compound interest flies; when the market is against you, you only give back a bit of profit. Over the past 5 years, I've withdrawn more than 30 times, with a single week’s highest withdrawal of 180,000 U, and even had customer service suspecting "money laundering".
Second, build positions in a staggered manner and harvest with reverse thinking.
I focus on three time frames: daily trend, 4-hour range, and 15-minute point.
For one coin, I often open two positions — position A follows the trend to go long, position B sets a limit order to short.
Stop loss not exceeding 1.5% of the principal, and take profit pulled to over 5 times.
The market spends 80% of the time in consolidation, while others are getting liquidated, I can profit from both sides.
Third, treat stop losses as tickets, small losses for big wins.
Each stop loss is just a ticket price, waiting for the next bull run.
When the market is favorable, move the take profit to let profits run wild; if something feels off, withdraw immediately.
My win rate is only 38%, but the profit-loss ratio is close to 5:1, making it stable over the long term — for every 1U risked, I can earn 1.9U.
Additional suggestions:
Divide the funds into ten parts, only move one-tenth at a time.
If you lose on two consecutive trades, exit to cool down, and never open a "revenge trade".
When the account doubles, withdraw 20% to buy gold or US bonds, allowing for a stable sleep even in bear markets.
This method is simple yet counterintuitive. Remember — the market doesn’t fear your mistakes, it fears that you won’t recover after liquidating.
Learn these three tricks and start next week, let the exchange work for you.
Brother Liang only does real trades, the team still has spots available, come quickly to catch every wave of the market #鲍威尔发言 #加密市场回调 $BTC
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Government Shutdown + Trump's Actions: The 'Crisis' and 'Opportunity' of the Crypto Market
If Trump increases his efforts to address the U.S. government shutdown, it may have a short-term negative impact on the crypto market by exacerbating market volatility, delaying regulatory progress, and undermining investor confidence. However, in the long term, it may attract safe-haven funds due to the decentralized asset properties, with the specific impact depending on the duration of the shutdown and the degree of policy interference. Below is a detailed analysis of this issue by Brother Li:
1. The direct impact of the government shutdown on the crypto market
Key regulatory bills delayed: The government shutdown may force the postponement of the review process for key cryptocurrency-related bills, such as the 'Digital Asset Market Structure Bill,' currently under review by the Senate Banking Committee. The delay of these bills means that the crypto industry will continue to face challenges in a regulatory gray area, forcing businesses and market participants to operate in uncertainty.
1. The direct impact of the government shutdown on the crypto market
Key regulatory bills delayed: The government shutdown may force the postponement of the review process for key cryptocurrency-related bills, such as the 'Digital Asset Market Structure Bill,' currently under review by the Senate Banking Committee. The delay of these bills means that the crypto industry will continue to face challenges in a regulatory gray area, forcing businesses and market participants to operate in uncertainty.
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After three retail sell-offs in January: Where are the bottom-fishing opportunities?
In less than a month, there have already been 3 concentrated sell-offs by retail investors in the market.
The latest data has only been updated until 01:00 today, and the current price is steadily declining, and it remains to be seen whether the 4th sell-off has begun.
However, I believe it is highly probable, but it's uncertain whether this sell-off will be 'harsh' enough.
If retail investors experience another extreme sell-off, it is likely to be a good stage for bottom fishing;
But if it is just a normal sell-off, not fierce enough and without panic, then it won't work.
This indicates that those short-term players who have lost money haven't lost enough; they haven't reached the point of being forced to give up their chips — this also means that there may be even lower prices waiting for us in the market ahead.
Liang only engages in real trading, the team still has positions available, come quickly, and let us seize every wave of the market #美联储降息预期 #鲍威尔发言 $BTC $ETH
In less than a month, there have already been 3 concentrated sell-offs by retail investors in the market.
The latest data has only been updated until 01:00 today, and the current price is steadily declining, and it remains to be seen whether the 4th sell-off has begun.
However, I believe it is highly probable, but it's uncertain whether this sell-off will be 'harsh' enough.
If retail investors experience another extreme sell-off, it is likely to be a good stage for bottom fishing;
But if it is just a normal sell-off, not fierce enough and without panic, then it won't work.
This indicates that those short-term players who have lost money haven't lost enough; they haven't reached the point of being forced to give up their chips — this also means that there may be even lower prices waiting for us in the market ahead.
Liang only engages in real trading, the team still has positions available, come quickly, and let us seize every wave of the market #美联储降息预期 #鲍威尔发言 $BTC $ETH
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Analysis of KGEN Coin's Explosive Growth: How POG Engine + zkML Technology Restructure Web3 Trust Economy?
The core reasons for the explosive growth of KGEN coin can be summarized as a dual drive of technological breakthroughs and ecological expansion, while also being influenced by macroeconomic easing expectations and market sentiment resonance. The specific analysis is as follows:
1. Technological Breakthrough: The POG engine builds Web3 trust infrastructure
KGEN's core competitiveness lies in its POG (Proof of Game) engine, which achieves sustainable value sharing by verifying user activities, addressing the core pain points in the Web3 field—trust deficit and bot attacks.
Multidimensional On-Chain Reputation System
The POG engine builds user reputation profiles from five key dimensions:
1. Technological Breakthrough: The POG engine builds Web3 trust infrastructure
KGEN's core competitiveness lies in its POG (Proof of Game) engine, which achieves sustainable value sharing by verifying user activities, addressing the core pain points in the Web3 field—trust deficit and bot attacks.
Multidimensional On-Chain Reputation System
The POG engine builds user reputation profiles from five key dimensions:
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10.17 Midday ETH Market Analysis:
Short positions in ETH, accurately grasping the fluctuation rhythm.
The price has been fluctuating around 3893, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing sharply to a range of 42 points, and market volatility hitting a recent low. The current price is running below the middle band at 3917, with a short-term bearish structure, but strong support is forming near the previous low of 3822 in the medium to long term.
It is recommended to lightly short in the range of 3910-3930, with a stop loss set above 3940, aiming for the range of 3880-3890; for medium-term positions, gradually establish long orders in the range of 3880-3900, with a stop loss set below 3860, aiming for the range of 3950-3980. #美联储降息预期 $ETH
Short positions in ETH, accurately grasping the fluctuation rhythm.
The price has been fluctuating around 3893, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing sharply to a range of 42 points, and market volatility hitting a recent low. The current price is running below the middle band at 3917, with a short-term bearish structure, but strong support is forming near the previous low of 3822 in the medium to long term.
It is recommended to lightly short in the range of 3910-3930, with a stop loss set above 3940, aiming for the range of 3880-3890; for medium-term positions, gradually establish long orders in the range of 3880-3900, with a stop loss set below 3860, aiming for the range of 3950-3980. #美联储降息预期 $ETH
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Australia's interest rate cut 'double-edged sword': How will the crypto market respond to liquidity easing and recession panic?
The rise in Australia's unemployment rate has doubled the probability of interest rate cuts to 70%. This economic policy adjustment will impact the crypto market through liquidity, risk appetite, and geopolitical channels, presenting a complex pattern of short-term bearishness, medium-term bullishness, and long-term caution against inflation rebound.
Short-term impact: Risk assets sell-off, crypto market under pressure
Economic recession panic spreads
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.5% (the highest since 2021), directly triggering market concerns about a hard landing for the economy. Historical data shows that for every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may decline by 10%-15%. Bitcoin, being a highly volatile asset, may be the first to test recent lows, while Ethereum and altcoins may see declines of 20% or even higher.
Short-term impact: Risk assets sell-off, crypto market under pressure
Economic recession panic spreads
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.5% (the highest since 2021), directly triggering market concerns about a hard landing for the economy. Historical data shows that for every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) may decline by 10%-15%. Bitcoin, being a highly volatile asset, may be the first to test recent lows, while Ethereum and altcoins may see declines of 20% or even higher.
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Whales Turn to Go Long on BTC: How Ordinary Investors Can 'Copy Homework' Without Stepping on Mines?
The whale has turned to go long on BTC with a 5x leverage long position. The cryptocurrency market may experience short-term volatility increase, but high-leverage trading carries significant risks. Investors should operate cautiously, avoid blindly following trends, and it's advisable to reasonably control leverage ratios, strictly set stop-losses, diversify investments, and maintain rational decision-making.
1. Analysis of market impact of whale operations
Short-term price volatility has intensified
The whale has opened a long position with 5x leverage, holding 68.42 BTC (approximately 7.62 million USD), and has placed a limit buy order for 14.65 million USD in a key price range. This large influx of funds could directly push up the BTC price, especially if market sentiment is driven, as retail investors following the trend could further amplify the increase. However, it is important to note that leveraged trading carries bi-directional risks; if prices move in the opposite direction, the whale may face forced liquidation, leading to a sharp price drop.
1. Analysis of market impact of whale operations
Short-term price volatility has intensified
The whale has opened a long position with 5x leverage, holding 68.42 BTC (approximately 7.62 million USD), and has placed a limit buy order for 14.65 million USD in a key price range. This large influx of funds could directly push up the BTC price, especially if market sentiment is driven, as retail investors following the trend could further amplify the increase. However, it is important to note that leveraged trading carries bi-directional risks; if prices move in the opposite direction, the whale may face forced liquidation, leading to a sharp price drop.
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10.16 Evening BTC Market Analysis：
BTC experienced a drop in the afternoon, breaking through 110000, and instantly rebounded, showing a long lower shadow. It was previously mentioned that there is strong resistance around 109500 to 110500, with support below.
The current market is fluctuating around 111300, with a bullish MACD showing volume at the hourly level. From a technical analysis perspective, it looks bullish, but there are many news factors affecting the evening.
In the evening, you can place long orders between 109500 and 110300, targeting 113600. After breaking through, you can continue to target around 115800, manage your stop-loss well, and pay attention to control. #美联储降息预期 #美国加征关税 $BTC
BTC experienced a drop in the afternoon, breaking through 110000, and instantly rebounded, showing a long lower shadow. It was previously mentioned that there is strong resistance around 109500 to 110500, with support below.
The current market is fluctuating around 111300, with a bullish MACD showing volume at the hourly level. From a technical analysis perspective, it looks bullish, but there are many news factors affecting the evening.
In the evening, you can place long orders between 109500 and 110300, targeting 113600. After breaking through, you can continue to target around 115800, manage your stop-loss well, and pay attention to control. #美联储降息预期 #美国加征关税 $BTC
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Federal Reserve's 'Rate Cut Shrinkage': Behind the 25 Basis Points, Is the Cryptocurrency Market on the Eve of a Surge or a Trap?
If the Federal Reserve actually cuts rates by 25 basis points, the impact on the cryptocurrency market shows short-term fluctuations and medium to long-term differentiation characteristics. Brother Liang analyzes this as follows:
Short-term impact: Market sentiment dominates, volatility increases
The effect of the 'sell-off news' is evident
The market has already priced in the interest rate cut expectations, and early positioning by funds has led to profit-taking after the event. For example, after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, the price of Bitcoin did not immediately rise, but instead experienced a short-term pullback due to long positions being closed. If the actual rate cut is lower than some investors' expectations (such as 50 basis points), it may trigger selling pressure due to the 'good news being fully priced in.'
Short-term impact: Market sentiment dominates, volatility increases
The effect of the 'sell-off news' is evident
The market has already priced in the interest rate cut expectations, and early positioning by funds has led to profit-taking after the event. For example, after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in September 2025, the price of Bitcoin did not immediately rise, but instead experienced a short-term pullback due to long positions being closed. If the actual rate cut is lower than some investors' expectations (such as 50 basis points), it may trigger selling pressure due to the 'good news being fully priced in.'
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Analysis of BEL's surge today
The surge in BEL today may involve the following core factors:
Technical breakthroughs and ecological progress
If the Bella Protocol, to which BEL belongs, makes substantial progress in key areas such as cross-chain bridging and DeFi staking pools, it could directly boost market confidence. For example, completing the development of cross-chain bridging technology or launching the first DeFi staking pool would enhance its technical barriers and practicality, attracting capital inflow.Market sentiment and capital rotationDuring periods of Bitcoin volatility (such as Q2 2025), mid and small-cap tokens (like BEL) are likely to become targets for capital support. When Bitcoin's market share exceeds 55%, the average turnover rate of tokens ranked 50-100 increases by 2.8 times, which could benefit BEL.
Technical breakthroughs and ecological progress
If the Bella Protocol, to which BEL belongs, makes substantial progress in key areas such as cross-chain bridging and DeFi staking pools, it could directly boost market confidence. For example, completing the development of cross-chain bridging technology or launching the first DeFi staking pool would enhance its technical barriers and practicality, attracting capital inflow.Market sentiment and capital rotationDuring periods of Bitcoin volatility (such as Q2 2025), mid and small-cap tokens (like BEL) are likely to become targets for capital support. When Bitcoin's market share exceeds 55%, the average turnover rate of tokens ranked 50-100 increases by 2.8 times, which could benefit BEL.
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The Federal Reserve's Beige Book 'ignites' expectations for interest rate cuts, the U.S. dollar declines, and the crypto market welcomes a super opportunity!
Under the macro background of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book consolidating expectations for interest rate cuts and the decline of the U.S. dollar, the crypto market may receive support in the short term due to expectations of increased liquidity and safe-haven demand, but in the long term, it remains affected by inflation, policy uncertainty, and market sentiment fluctuations, presenting a characteristic of bidirectional volatility. The following is a detailed analysis of the impact of this series of events on the crypto market:
The impact of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book consolidating expectations for interest rate cuts
Increased liquidity expectations: The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity saw slight growth at the beginning of the year, but inflationary pressures still persist widely. This has solidified market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts typically mean increased market liquidity as borrowing costs decrease, making it easier for businesses and individuals to access funds. For the crypto market, an increase in liquidity may attract more funds, driving up cryptocurrency prices.
The impact of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book consolidating expectations for interest rate cuts
Increased liquidity expectations: The Federal Reserve's Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity saw slight growth at the beginning of the year, but inflationary pressures still persist widely. This has solidified market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Rate cuts typically mean increased market liquidity as borrowing costs decrease, making it easier for businesses and individuals to access funds. For the crypto market, an increase in liquidity may attract more funds, driving up cryptocurrency prices.
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10.16 Brother Liang's views on ETH, SOL, BNB at noon:
Last night the prices all experienced a decline. The bad news is that the rebound strength has not yet recovered, but the good news is that no previous lows have been broken. It's Thursday, and next week we might welcome the hype surrounding the interest rate cut on the 28th. As long as the price stabilizes a bit without breaking the low support, I believe that as time goes on, the strength of the pullback will start to weaken, and the probability of a deep pullback is still relatively low.
Returning to the market, Bitcoin just tested the 110,000 level last night before rebounding. It did not break the low support around 1,098-1,095, indicating that the pullback strength is not very strong, leaning more towards oscillation. Today, the rebound pressure is still focused on around 112,200. Only by breaking this position will a small-level rebound be restored to test around 113,500. The four-hour rebound will only strengthen if it breaks this position. During the day, keep an eye on light positions around 111,000-110,500. Do not easily increase positions unless the pullback reaches below 108,000. Rebound targets are 113,500-114,500-116,000-118,000. Short-term rebound targets are 112,200-113,500, with a stop loss at 109,800.
ETH's pullback test last night also did not break the four-hour low support at 3,880. The four-hour bottom is continuously rising, with small-level rebound pressure at 4,100. Only by breaking this position will the rebound strength recover and continue to test upwards towards 4,200-4,250. During the day, keep an eye on positions around 3,980-4,010, with targets at 4,100-4,200-4,250-4,300. The stop loss is at last night's pullback low of 3,920.
SOL tested the 190 level support again last night. The four-hour rebound will only end if it breaks this position. If Bitcoin does not weaken, SOL would have already reached 215-220. Small-level pressure is at 200. Breaking this position will restore the four-hour rebound. During the day, keep an eye on positions around 191-193, with a stop loss at 188. Rebound targets are 200-208-213.
BNB came back up today just as it went down last night. The four-hour level of 1,140 was not broken, indicating a rebound. The rebound pressure is at 1,220, and breaking this will lead to further strength. During the day, keep an eye on positions around 1,170-1,160, with rebound targets at 1,220-1,250-1,300. If it breaks 1,140, exit the position.
Follow Brother Liang, focusing on ETH technical strategy analysis. The team still has positions available, hurry to get in at #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #鲍威尔发言 #美联储降息预期 $BNB $ETH $SOL
Last night the prices all experienced a decline. The bad news is that the rebound strength has not yet recovered, but the good news is that no previous lows have been broken. It's Thursday, and next week we might welcome the hype surrounding the interest rate cut on the 28th. As long as the price stabilizes a bit without breaking the low support, I believe that as time goes on, the strength of the pullback will start to weaken, and the probability of a deep pullback is still relatively low.
Returning to the market, Bitcoin just tested the 110,000 level last night before rebounding. It did not break the low support around 1,098-1,095, indicating that the pullback strength is not very strong, leaning more towards oscillation. Today, the rebound pressure is still focused on around 112,200. Only by breaking this position will a small-level rebound be restored to test around 113,500. The four-hour rebound will only strengthen if it breaks this position. During the day, keep an eye on light positions around 111,000-110,500. Do not easily increase positions unless the pullback reaches below 108,000. Rebound targets are 113,500-114,500-116,000-118,000. Short-term rebound targets are 112,200-113,500, with a stop loss at 109,800.
ETH's pullback test last night also did not break the four-hour low support at 3,880. The four-hour bottom is continuously rising, with small-level rebound pressure at 4,100. Only by breaking this position will the rebound strength recover and continue to test upwards towards 4,200-4,250. During the day, keep an eye on positions around 3,980-4,010, with targets at 4,100-4,200-4,250-4,300. The stop loss is at last night's pullback low of 3,920.
SOL tested the 190 level support again last night. The four-hour rebound will only end if it breaks this position. If Bitcoin does not weaken, SOL would have already reached 215-220. Small-level pressure is at 200. Breaking this position will restore the four-hour rebound. During the day, keep an eye on positions around 191-193, with a stop loss at 188. Rebound targets are 200-208-213.
BNB came back up today just as it went down last night. The four-hour level of 1,140 was not broken, indicating a rebound. The rebound pressure is at 1,220, and breaking this will lead to further strength. During the day, keep an eye on positions around 1,170-1,160, with rebound targets at 1,220-1,250-1,300. If it breaks 1,140, exit the position.
Follow Brother Liang, focusing on ETH technical strategy analysis. The team still has positions available, hurry to get in at #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #鲍威尔发言 #美联储降息预期 $BNB $ETH $SOL
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China Merchants Bank's subsidiary, China Merchants International, has launched a $3.8 billion dollar money market fund on the BNB chain. This move has had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market, mainly reflected in the following aspects:
Firstly, from the perspective of market confidence, this action has significantly enhanced market confidence in the integration of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance. As a giant in the traditional financial sector, China Merchants International's entry not only signifies recognition of the potential of the cryptocurrency market but also demonstrates the determination of traditional financial institutions to explore blockchain technology within a compliance framework. This confidence is conveyed throughout the cryptocurrency market, attracting more traditional investors to pay attention to and participate in cryptocurrency investments, injecting new vitality into the market.
Secondly, in terms of market liquidity, the $3.8 billion fund is distributed on-chain through the BNB chain, bringing considerable liquidity to the market. The BNB chain, as one of the largest blockchain ecosystems in the world, provides strong support for the fund's distribution with its robust infrastructure and mature ecosystem. The on-chain subscription mechanism allows investors to track fund performance in real-time and complete subscription and redemption operations in a transparent, low-friction environment, further enhancing market liquidity.
Furthermore, from the perspective of technological innovation, the combination of tokenization, blockchain distribution, and compliance framework in the fund launched by China Merchants International injects new vitality into traditional fund operations. This innovative model not only improves fund operational efficiency but also reduces operational costs, providing a new template for the digital transformation of traditional financial institutions. In the future, more funds, bonds, and note-like assets are expected to be issued and traded on-chain, promoting the digital upgrade of the global capital market.
Finally, from the perspective of market structure, China Merchants International's entry has intensified competition in the cryptocurrency market. As more traditional financial institutions join, market competition will become fiercer, but it will also drive continuous innovation and improvement in the market, providing investors with more diversified and compliant investment options.
Brother Liang only conducts real trading, and there are still positions in the team, hurry to #鲍威尔发言 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH
Firstly, from the perspective of market confidence, this action has significantly enhanced market confidence in the integration of cryptocurrencies and traditional finance. As a giant in the traditional financial sector, China Merchants International's entry not only signifies recognition of the potential of the cryptocurrency market but also demonstrates the determination of traditional financial institutions to explore blockchain technology within a compliance framework. This confidence is conveyed throughout the cryptocurrency market, attracting more traditional investors to pay attention to and participate in cryptocurrency investments, injecting new vitality into the market.
Secondly, in terms of market liquidity, the $3.8 billion fund is distributed on-chain through the BNB chain, bringing considerable liquidity to the market. The BNB chain, as one of the largest blockchain ecosystems in the world, provides strong support for the fund's distribution with its robust infrastructure and mature ecosystem. The on-chain subscription mechanism allows investors to track fund performance in real-time and complete subscription and redemption operations in a transparent, low-friction environment, further enhancing market liquidity.
Furthermore, from the perspective of technological innovation, the combination of tokenization, blockchain distribution, and compliance framework in the fund launched by China Merchants International injects new vitality into traditional fund operations. This innovative model not only improves fund operational efficiency but also reduces operational costs, providing a new template for the digital transformation of traditional financial institutions. In the future, more funds, bonds, and note-like assets are expected to be issued and traded on-chain, promoting the digital upgrade of the global capital market.
Finally, from the perspective of market structure, China Merchants International's entry has intensified competition in the cryptocurrency market. As more traditional financial institutions join, market competition will become fiercer, but it will also drive continuous innovation and improvement in the market, providing investors with more diversified and compliant investment options.
Brother Liang only conducts real trading, and there are still positions in the team, hurry to #鲍威尔发言 #美国加征关税 $BTC $ETH
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Analysis of the US Department of Justice's Bitcoin confiscation action against the Cambodian 'Prince Group'
Recently, the US Department of Justice launched the largest confiscation action in history against the transnational fraud group 'Prince Group' based in Cambodia, involving approximately 127,271 Bitcoins (about $15 billion). This event has attracted widespread attention in the global finance and cryptocurrency sectors, containing multiple deep-seated impacts and insights.
Analysis of the background and purpose of the action
From the background, the joint sanctions by the US and UK against the Cambodian 'Prince Group' are not accidental. The 'Prince Group' has long engaged in illegal activities such as fraud and money laundering, seriously disrupting the order of financial markets and harming the interests of investors. The purpose of this US action is clear; on one hand, it aims to combat transnational crime and maintain international financial security and stability. By confiscating the Bitcoin obtained from criminal activities, it weakens the economic foundation of the criminal group and prevents further illegal activities. On the other hand, it demonstrates the strong capabilities of the US in financial regulation and law enforcement, sending a signal of zero tolerance for financial crime to the world and consolidating its dominant position in the international financial order.
Analysis of the background and purpose of the action
From the background, the joint sanctions by the US and UK against the Cambodian 'Prince Group' are not accidental. The 'Prince Group' has long engaged in illegal activities such as fraud and money laundering, seriously disrupting the order of financial markets and harming the interests of investors. The purpose of this US action is clear; on one hand, it aims to combat transnational crime and maintain international financial security and stability. By confiscating the Bitcoin obtained from criminal activities, it weakens the economic foundation of the criminal group and prevents further illegal activities. On the other hand, it demonstrates the strong capabilities of the US in financial regulation and law enforcement, sending a signal of zero tolerance for financial crime to the world and consolidating its dominant position in the international financial order.
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10.15 Bright Brother SOL Evening Market Analysis：
Recently, the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market has been influenced by both the macro environment and project developments. As a leading public chain token, SOL's ecological development continues to improve, with innovative products like the Saga phone launched, enhancing user stickiness and market confidence. However, the market is also concerned about the uncertainty of regulatory policies and changes in overall market liquidity.
After experiencing significant fluctuations, SOL is currently in a key support and resistance zone. The candlestick chart shows that the price has received some support near the 200-day moving average, but there is significant selling pressure above. The MACD indicator presents a weak golden cross, but the DIF and DEA lines are close to sticking together, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears.
Operational Strategy: It is recommended that investors closely monitor the support at the 200 level. If it effectively breaks down, consider reducing positions; pay attention to the resistance at 210 above, and if it breaks through, a moderate chase of the rise can be considered, but a stop-loss must be set. Overall, maintain a cautiously optimistic stance and respond flexibly to market changes. #鲍威尔发言 #美国加征关税 $SOL
Recently, the overall volatility of the cryptocurrency market has been influenced by both the macro environment and project developments. As a leading public chain token, SOL's ecological development continues to improve, with innovative products like the Saga phone launched, enhancing user stickiness and market confidence. However, the market is also concerned about the uncertainty of regulatory policies and changes in overall market liquidity.
After experiencing significant fluctuations, SOL is currently in a key support and resistance zone. The candlestick chart shows that the price has received some support near the 200-day moving average, but there is significant selling pressure above. The MACD indicator presents a weak golden cross, but the DIF and DEA lines are close to sticking together, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears.
Operational Strategy: It is recommended that investors closely monitor the support at the 200 level. If it effectively breaks down, consider reducing positions; pay attention to the resistance at 210 above, and if it breaks through, a moderate chase of the rise can be considered, but a stop-loss must be set. Overall, maintain a cautiously optimistic stance and respond flexibly to market changes. #鲍威尔发言 #美国加征关税 $SOL
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10.15 Evening BTC, ETH Market Analysis:
Currently, the overall market trend is still downward, constantly testing the bottom support. The market trend is relatively clear, and the bears are continuously gaining strength. From the four-hour level, the Bitcoin market is distributed in the lower area of the Bollinger Bands, with the middle band showing very strong pressure resistance, and the upward breaking force is obviously insufficient. From the hourly level, the Bitcoin market's Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating that the market is about to start, and the K-line is continuously impacting the lower middle band, with insufficient pressure resistance below, strengthening the bearish continuation. The subsequent layout should focus on rebound selling. Friends who have followed the daytime strategy can continue to look downward.
Evening Operation Suggestion: Bitcoin 112700-113200 range short, target 110000
Evening Operation Suggestion: Ethereum 4150-4180 range short, target 4000
#鲍威尔发言 #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
Currently, the overall market trend is still downward, constantly testing the bottom support. The market trend is relatively clear, and the bears are continuously gaining strength. From the four-hour level, the Bitcoin market is distributed in the lower area of the Bollinger Bands, with the middle band showing very strong pressure resistance, and the upward breaking force is obviously insufficient. From the hourly level, the Bitcoin market's Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, indicating that the market is about to start, and the K-line is continuously impacting the lower middle band, with insufficient pressure resistance below, strengthening the bearish continuation. The subsequent layout should focus on rebound selling. Friends who have followed the daytime strategy can continue to look downward.
Evening Operation Suggestion: Bitcoin 112700-113200 range short, target 110000
Evening Operation Suggestion: Ethereum 4150-4180 range short, target 4000
#鲍威尔发言 #巨鲸动向 #加密市场观察 $BTC $ETH
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BNB falls below 1200 USDT: Deep adjustment under market sentiment and technical resonance
In the early hours of October 15, 2025, the cryptocurrency market迎来新一轮震荡. As the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the price of BNB fell below the key support level of 1200, currently quoted at 1198.75, with a decline of 3.58% in 24 hours. This volatility not only triggers concerns among investors about short-term trends but also reflects the complex pattern of the cryptocurrency market intertwined with macro policies, ecological competition, and capital flows.
1. Market sentiment: capital outflow and risk preference switch
(1) The flow of funds 'long-short game'
According to real-time data from Coin World, BNB's 24-hour transaction volume reached 61.071 billion yuan, but the trading volume decreased by 5.09% compared to the previous day. This 'price drop and volume shrinkage' trend indicates that there is a divergence around 1200 in the market: some investors choose to take profits while another part of the capital waits for clearer signals. It is worth noting that BNB's on-chain transaction fee income decreased by 18% within 24 hours, showing that on-chain activity has cooled down.
1. Market sentiment: capital outflow and risk preference switch
(1) The flow of funds 'long-short game'
According to real-time data from Coin World, BNB's 24-hour transaction volume reached 61.071 billion yuan, but the trading volume decreased by 5.09% compared to the previous day. This 'price drop and volume shrinkage' trend indicates that there is a divergence around 1200 in the market: some investors choose to take profits while another part of the capital waits for clearer signals. It is worth noting that BNB's on-chain transaction fee income decreased by 18% within 24 hours, showing that on-chain activity has cooled down.
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