Recently, many people have asked me: After the big drop on October 11, it rebounded for a few days, and now it's weak again. Will there be a second bottom test?

Actually, this needs to be discussed separately — the situation of mainstream coins and altcoins is completely different, so don't confuse them.

First, let's look at mainstream coins. It's not surprising to say that BTC and ETH may have a second test, but to say they will break through key levels, I think the probability is low.

Take ETH as an example; the possibility of it dropping to 3400 in the short term is very low.

That level has been a dense trading area for the past two years, and after breaking through, it has become strong support.

On October 11, even the short sellers' massive attack did not break through, and it was pulled back by the bulls, indicating that this defense line is very stable.

The recent pullback is indeed a decline, but the volume has clearly shrunk — the strength of the short sellers is leaking.

To put it simply: the first time, a hundred thousand troops couldn't capture the position, and now only ten thousand are charging again, which is basically impossible to take.

Looking at the $ETH 4-hour chart makes it clearer: during the first big drop, the short sellers were indeed fierce, but were countered by the bulls with long lower shadows;

The subsequent two drops were weaker each time, with decreasing volume, clearly indicating that the short sellers are losing strength.

So, that wave on October 11 looks more like the last struggle of the short sellers, not the start of a bear market.

Washing in a bull market often looks like this; it seems scary on the surface, but it’s actually just trying to shake off the indecisive people.

On the BTC side, it's simpler: if it pulls back to the range of 100,000 to 107,000, just buy spot without overthinking, this range has enough safety cushion.

As for altcoins, don’t follow the hype of “second test breaking new lows,” it’s a bit exaggerated.

Many altcoins have plunged dozens of times before, and the current weakness is due to too many short-term spot sell orders that need time to digest.

The good news is that on-chain trading volume has recently increased significantly, but the bad news is very real: in the future, some altcoins will definitely face the risk of being delisted and going to zero, so don’t randomly catch the bottom.

To summarize: the pullback of mainstream coins is an opportunity, and altcoins should wait until the sell orders are digested before looking again, don’t be swayed by short-term fluctuations.

Liang only does real trading; the team still has positions available, come quickly to catch every wave of the market #加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH