$BTC

I. Bull-Bear Game and Technical Signals

Support and Resistance:

Support Level: The $103,100-$103,400 area is strongly supported by sovereign funds (such as El Salvador) and institutions (such as Semler Scientific), and on-chain data shows that selling pressure is exhausted; if it falls below, it may drop to $101,000 or even $99,500.

Resistance Level: $105,300-$106,500 gathers short selling orders (Binance accounts for 50.69%) and EMA moving average suppression. A breakthrough requires a trading volume of over $2 billion/hour.

Indicator Divergence: RSI (53.89) is neutral, MACD is slightly bullish, but ADL (Accumulation/Distribution Line) shows insufficient buying, and the Klinger Oscillator and TSI are still biased towards the short side, reflecting contradictory momentum.

II. Market Behavior and Sentiment

Institutional Trends: ETF funds have net inflows for 7 consecutive days (such as IBIT increasing its holdings by 2,680 BTC), and the divergence from the price implies the end of absorption; whale wallets increase BTC holdings while retail investors sell, and historical patterns indicate a potential reversal.

Sentiment Index: The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 54 (neutral), and Santiment monitors the ratio of bullish to bearish comments on social media as 1:1. Retail investors are increasingly divided, which may be a signal for reverse operations.

III. Risks and Catalysts for Change

Short-term Turning Point Window: A falling wedge on the 4-hour chart is approaching a breakout. If it breaks through $106,000 with volume, it may trigger a short squeeze to $110,969 (a densely populated area for short order liquidation); conversely, breaking below $103,100 may test the ultimate support of $102,250.

Policies and Geopolitics: The US Draft Crypto Market Structure Act may be disclosed within 72 hours, and if passed, it will attract institutional funds; if the Middle East situation (such as shipping in the Strait of Hormuz) deteriorates, it may trigger risk aversion fluctuations.

Conclusion: BTC is at the end of a triangle convergence, and a direction is imminent. It is recommended to pay attention to the effectiveness of the $105,300 short defense line and the $103,100 support, and operate in the direction of the breakthrough with strict stop loss.