As of June 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to exhibit a narrow range of fluctuations, with prices oscillating around $103,000-$104,000. The market's bullish and bearish forces are intertwined, and the short-term direction remains unclear. Here are the key analysis points:

1. Technical Signals Divergence

Support and Resistance: The short-term support level is in the $102,250-$103,000 range, with sovereign funds (such as El Salvador) and institutional ETFs (like IBIT with a single-day increase of 621 BTC) forming a buffer in this area. Resistance levels are concentrated at $104,600-$105,000, with a breakout requiring increased trading volume or a reduction in geopolitical risks.

Technical Indicators: The 4-hour chart shows the Bollinger Bands opening downwards, the RSI (41.2) is in a neutral to weak area, and the MACD momentum is weak. There is a possibility of a short-term oversold rebound, but caution is advised regarding the risk of a second bottom.

2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows

Institutional Dynamics: Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive days, with BlackRock's IBIT net inflow surpassing $1.2 billion this week, but the pace of capital increase has slowed, indicating that institutions are cautiously entering the market.

Retail Sentiment: The Santiment report shows that retail sentiment has dropped to its lowest since April after BTC fell below $103,000, and the contrarian signal may indicate that a rebound is near. The Fear and Greed Index remains neutral (49), with a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

3. External Influencing Factors

Geopolitics: Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have triggered a withdrawal of safe-haven funds, but expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East are rising. If Iran returns to negotiations, it could alleviate market pressures.

Macroeconomic Policy: Federal Reserve Governor Waller has signaled a potential interest rate cut in July, but Trump's tariff policies and persistent inflation continue to suppress risk appetite, with a strengthening U.S. dollar index limiting BTC's upward potential.

4. On-chain and Derivatives Data

On-chain Activity: BTC on-chain transaction volume has dropped to an 18-month low, with continuous net outflows from exchanges, reflecting a trend of long-term holders “invisibly increasing” their holdings.

Derivatives Risk: The number of open futures contracts is nearing historical highs, with high leverage exacerbating volatility. A breakout from key levels could trigger a short squeeze.