币市勋章

#比特币 Bitcoin has once again approached historical highs amidst fluctuations, giving the market the illusion of a bullish return breaking new highs. The medal published a long article at the end of last month explaining the need to maintain a bearish outlook on Bitcoin. Currently, there is some short-term rally, but the medal believes this does not affect the continued bearish viewpoint. The previous article has already discussed the argument that the daily line has broken the MA60 trend line, establishing a bearish foundation. The short-term rally has been compared with the peak trends from the end of last year and the beginning of this year in three stages, showing very similar fluctuation patterns. The current third stage of the increase overlaps with the rally wave from January 14 of this year, indicating consistent maneuvering by the main force. After breaking the MA60 in mid-January, a rapid consecutive rise was used to lead the market to be bullish, with the highest point slightly exceeding previous highs, creating an illusion of completely opening up technical space above, before initiating a mid-term decline lasting 35000 USD.

The price of Bitcoin has slightly moved upwards in the past two days. The pattern seems to indicate a potential breakout. However, in reality, the entire bullish momentum is not clearly evident. The analyst believes this process is merely the selling pressure easing. There is some buying support that has caused a slight upward test in price. The analyst's recent view remains bearish as the main direction, currently viewing the situation from a top pattern perspective. The market's rebound is only seen as a momentary top attraction by the main force. Since their holdings have not been fully offloaded, they will continue to lure in buyers and sell off, maintaining a high price to gain higher profits while avoiding persistent declines that could impact buying sentiment.

Bitcoin indeed saw another wave of rebound when waking up this morning. Last night, when the medal provided analysis, the price was still below $102,000, having rebounded over $2,000 from the bottom at $98,200. At that time, many crypto friends were eager to enter short positions, and upon waking up, they faced heavy losses. The medal emphasized in last night’s concluding analysis that to avoid a gathering of short positions in the market, the price might rebound to eliminate shorting behavior, resulting in a short-term upward pattern, reminding everyone to avoid entering short positions too early. This morning, the price indeed saw a continuous wave of rebound, with altcoins also rebounding strongly, giving the market a glimpse of bullish hope.

#比特币 Bitcoin closed with a large bearish candle in yesterday's decline, with prices completely piercing through the daily MA60 major support line, disrupting the upward channel and indicating a phase of peak formation. In recent analyses, the recommendation has consistently been to anticipate bearish declines, as the signs of a top formation were already evident above $106,000. The price lacks the momentum to continue rising and there is no new bullish narrative, leading to insufficient buying momentum and continuous selling actions. Therefore, the price falling below $100,000 is not surprising, as previous bearish analyses repeatedly mentioned that the $94,000 area has yet to be reached.

Bitcoin led a rebound from around 105500 during the day on the 16th, but the price did not achieve high-level fluctuations and was sold off all the way down, reaching a low of 103,370 USD at 1 AM today, achieving the phase target expectation of the medal's short position at 104000 USD. The current price continues to find support above 103,000. In fact, this support has been used multiple times, mainly because the area around 103,000 is the consolidation level after the rise in mid-May, and this area has been fluctuating for a week, forming a solid position. Moreover, the main force does not want this price to break down too early, causing panic and affecting the selling price.

#比特币 Currently, Bitcoin is in a rebound and consolidation position around 105,000 USD after the sharp drop on the morning of the 13th, fluctuating within 1,000 USD. The price has not yet shown short-term directional guidance. In fact, everyone is more curious about where BTC's next movement will head. The expert believes that based on the current market dynamics, there are no signs of continuous active buying. The halt in price decline is merely a temporary pause in selling. Some retail investors are attempting to buy at the bottom, leading to some price increases, but there has not been a continuous influx of funds. Therefore, regarding the upcoming increase, the expert sees little substantial basis for optimism.

#比特币 Bitcoin continues to be under pressure near new highs, with bullish momentum insufficient to absorb selling pressure. This means that the consensus for new highs among bulls lacks continuous capital buying, and a breakthrough seems temporarily hopeless, requiring a wave of bearish retracement to release selling pressure. The previous article from the medal mentioned avoiding the intuition of new highs breaking through at high levels, and indeed the price has retreated again. For the upcoming trend, the medal believes the price has broken below the 108,000 level, and the entire bearish trend is now irreversible.
The hourly chart has formed a clear bearish trend. Although the 4-hour MA moving averages are still in a bullish state, this is at an early stage and does not form a strong bullish guidance. For the upcoming operations, the medal judges that it is still necessary to focus on short positions to respond. To avoid short-term rebounds, it is recommended to short in the 108700-109300 range, with a stop loss expanded to 111000 USD, and target profits at 106500, 105500 USD, and for the medium term around 103000 USD.

#比特币 After staying at $105,500, Bitcoin failed to continue due to pressure from the four-hour MA60, breaking through resistance and exiting the short-term downtrend, leading to a rebound of nearly $5,000, and driving high-quality altcoins in the market to surge. The current price of BTC is $109,600, which has pulled back to the bearish guidance of the four-hour moving average, prompting all MAs to be in the early stages of a bullish reversal. Of course, the initial MA shape is also the easiest to change, so everyone should be clear about the price situation and avoid blindly going long.
Bitcoin reached a peak of $110,530 this morning. It is only $1,500 away from the new high of $112,000. Every time it approaches the previous high, there tends to be significant short-selling momentum and selling pressure because early investors who are trapped are eager to reduce panic, and those who lack confidence in the future market may also sell here to observe, waiting for further breakthroughs before joining the trend. Therefore, as we approach the new high boundary, the probability of price retracement remains quite high. The analysis in the previous post mentioned that the price would rebound at $105,500 and then rise to induce more buying and lead the market to join in. While the trend indeed followed this, it is difficult to determine whether the peak reached this morning is the endpoint of this round of rebound. If the price exceeds the new high and breaks the market's bearish sentiment before retracing, it also aligns with the cunning trading tactics of the main players. Thus, regarding current market participation, it is never a wrong decision to test shorts at the pressure level near the new high. Shorting at pressure levels is a commonly used strategy. Although the high point cannot be confirmed, it is certain that it is not advisable to chase longs at high positions or continue holding long positions. This is not to say that prices won't rise, but the upcoming challenges at new highs will have significant competition between bulls and bears, making the risk of holding long positions less worthwhile. Simply put, believe in statistical probabilities rather than intuition!

Bitcoin rebounded from the lowest point of 100,372 dollars at 4 AM today, holding the 100,000 integer mark, and then rebounded slightly to the current 104,200 dollars, a rebound height of nearly 4,000 dollars. The main factor is that there is strong support and buying sentiment at the 100,000 mark. After all, the price has fallen nearly 12,000 dollars from the top of 112,000 dollars, making it relatively cheap compared to the peak, so there is a certain amount of bottom-fishing buying.
For the selling pressure, it gives the bulls a chance to breathe, releases buying sentiment, and is more favorable for the subsequent selling. In this case, the chips can still be sold at a high price while increasing the market's ability to absorb, avoiding panic and waiting actions. Therefore, there may be obvious inducement to the bulls next, providing sufficient hope for the bulls, and the price may quickly rise before stopping the rally and then selling.

#比特币 Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 105,000, with a 1000-point range, and there is currently no obvious continuation of direction in the small to medium term. After a continuous decline for 4 days at the end of last month, there has not been a consecutive rebound. The current price is still at the support position guided by the bullish MA30 on the daily line. It is also supported above the horizontal step position of 103,000 from mid-May.
The medal judgment indicates that the price is staying here because there is a certain reliability in this generation of chips. After a drop from the top of 110,000 USD, there is a buying sentiment for bottom hunting. Therefore, the selling pressure will utilize this support for slight selling to stabilize the price. Once the bullish buying energy is exhausted, and the price breaks this support area, panic will form in the market, making the buying capacity worse, and the selling pressure will not be able to get a good price. Thus, consuming the selling pressure in this area and using support and buying sentiment to obtain a good selling price is the main factor we see for the price's inability to rise.