#比特币 After staying at $105,500, Bitcoin failed to continue due to pressure from the four-hour MA60, breaking through resistance and exiting the short-term downtrend, leading to a rebound of nearly $5,000, and driving high-quality altcoins in the market to surge. The current price of BTC is $109,600, which has pulled back to the bearish guidance of the four-hour moving average, prompting all MAs to be in the early stages of a bullish reversal. Of course, the initial MA shape is also the easiest to change, so everyone should be clear about the price situation and avoid blindly going long.
Bitcoin reached a peak of $110,530 this morning. It is only $1,500 away from the new high of $112,000. Every time it approaches the previous high, there tends to be significant short-selling momentum and selling pressure because early investors who are trapped are eager to reduce panic, and those who lack confidence in the future market may also sell here to observe, waiting for further breakthroughs before joining the trend. Therefore, as we approach the new high boundary, the probability of price retracement remains quite high. The analysis in the previous post mentioned that the price would rebound at $105,500 and then rise to induce more buying and lead the market to join in. While the trend indeed followed this, it is difficult to determine whether the peak reached this morning is the endpoint of this round of rebound. If the price exceeds the new high and breaks the market's bearish sentiment before retracing, it also aligns with the cunning trading tactics of the main players. Thus, regarding current market participation, it is never a wrong decision to test shorts at the pressure level near the new high. Shorting at pressure levels is a commonly used strategy. Although the high point cannot be confirmed, it is certain that it is not advisable to chase longs at high positions or continue holding long positions. This is not to say that prices won't rise, but the upcoming challenges at new highs will have significant competition between bulls and bears, making the risk of holding long positions less worthwhile. Simply put, believe in statistical probabilities rather than intuition!
Of course, for those who want to participate at the boundary, partial short positions can be tested. In terms of operation, it is recommended to short in the range of $110,500-$111,500, with a stop loss at $112,500, targeting $108,000 for short-term and $106,500, and $103,000 for medium-term.
Risk Warning: The main players are cunning, and there is an expectation for price to recede after breaking the new high, with the anticipated peak after the breakout around $116,000. Therefore, while participating in short positions, keep low leverage and low positions to avoid all-in betting. For more position-related queries, I will be online and provide real-time interpretations.$BTC 
