Bitcoin indeed saw another wave of rebound when waking up this morning. Last night, when the medal provided analysis, the price was still below $102,000, having rebounded over $2,000 from the bottom at $98,200. At that time, many crypto friends were eager to enter short positions, and upon waking up, they faced heavy losses. The medal emphasized in last night’s concluding analysis that to avoid a gathering of short positions in the market, the price might rebound to eliminate shorting behavior, resulting in a short-term upward pattern, reminding everyone to avoid entering short positions too early. This morning, the price indeed saw a continuous wave of rebound, with altcoins also rebounding strongly, giving the market a glimpse of bullish hope.
Seeing the rally, the medal feels even more gratified. If the rebound lacks momentum, the psychology for shorting will instead have concerns. The current rebound position near $105,500 coincidentally lies below the baiting peak of $106,500 from the afternoon of June 20, and it has not surpassed the previous high, making the pattern relatively standard.
For this type of rapid bottom-up rally, based on experience analysis, the medal believes it is usually a baiting upward action, rather than an active buying behavior for accumulating chips. Therefore, regarding the upcoming trend, the medal believes that after the high-level consolidation at $105,500, it is highly likely to decline again, meaning we will probably see the price continue to fall below $102,000.
Of course, regarding the current pattern, the medal believes that the influence of geopolitical relations is minimal. Even without these events, it should proceed this way; after all, the shorts have already been established in previous days, and a lack of buying will lead to a sharp decline. Right now, because the main force is reluctant to let go of the top price and has quickly pulled back, any stage peak in the market will cause the price to continue to linger at the top. After multiple sell-offs, the price will continue to rebound to test the top, creating an illusion that the shorts do not want to leave, thereby attracting the bulls to continue to stay and generate buying, avoiding panic selling caused by prolonged shorts, and a cascading decline that cannot sell smoothly. Therefore, the sustained oscillation and testing of the top pattern are very normal trading behaviors. Once the main force has little stock left, there will be no more baiting actions to drive the price up and will sell off remaining stocks cheaply to leave the market and observe.
Regarding the current market, since the specific high of the baiting cannot be determined, the medal believes that during the market's consolidation pause, one can use the hypothesis of peak detection to attempt short positions.
During this period, it is recommended that everyone avoid making long positions, not because there are no profits, but because the risk has greatly increased. By comparison, we can find that when the price peaked at $110,000 in January of this year, it also lingered at the top many times, rebounding after a decline, and then continuing to fall sharply. Therefore, regarding the upcoming trend, the medal believes that in the short term, after this consolidation, it is highly likely to pull back. If there is an unexpected breakthrough to continue rising, it will need to attempt to short at a higher position, roughly in the new high range of $108,500 to $110,000, that is, continuing to short against the new high for a pullback. The continuous shorting is due to the recent market trends; the medal believes that the top pattern has already been established, with the main force continuously engaging in selling actions, while the active buying is relatively scarce, lacking sufficient momentum and bullish narrative.
In terms of entry operations, it is recommended to short in the range of $105,300 to $106,000, with a stop loss at $107,000, targeting $103,000 and $102,000, with a medium-term target of $96,000.$BTC 
