The price of Bitcoin has slightly moved upwards in the past two days. The pattern seems to indicate a potential breakout. However, in reality, the entire bullish momentum is not clearly evident. The analyst believes this process is merely the selling pressure easing. There is some buying support that has caused a slight upward test in price. The analyst's recent view remains bearish as the main direction, currently viewing the situation from a top pattern perspective. The market's rebound is only seen as a momentary top attraction by the main force. Since their holdings have not been fully offloaded, they will continue to lure in buyers and sell off, maintaining a high price to gain higher profits while avoiding persistent declines that could impact buying sentiment.
Indeed, this process of luring buyers is actually the hardest to judge the peak in the short term, as the main force has its own decision-making tier. Approaching new highs or slightly breaking new highs is a normal trading strategy. Here, the analyst wants to refer to historical trends so that everyone can understand the underlying patterns. From the daily chart, the recent top pattern from May to June is very similar to the trend from late last year to early January, including several similar rise and fall strategies in between. This indicates that it is the same main force at work. The analyst presents the analysis insights in the chart below.
BTC officially established a bearish foundation after breaking below the daily MA60 trend line on June 22, and the subsequent strong recovery in price is similar to the movement on January 13. The price strongly rallied again to near the top starting from January 14, with a slight new high giving the market a technical breakout perspective, followed by simple oscillation for over a week before continuing down the bearish long path. This is the reason the analyst continues to be bearish based on pattern analysis. As for the reasons not to chase the upsides, considering the current pressure at 107500 dollars, there is continuous selling and pullback pressure, with smaller profits and greater risks. Following the principle of not eating the last bite of meat, it is not recommended to chase the upsides. Those focusing on short positions can act against upward pressure, increasing the success rate.
Of course, the current difficulty is predicting the specific peak pullback point. For those who do not want to miss the peak trend but also want to avoid losses, the method is to initially buy a small position of short orders and add to the short orders at higher levels. This way, it can yield substantial profits in the mid-term with a more prudent approach.
Technical analysis is only one part of the picture. Now, let's discuss the analyst's judgment that prices are unlikely to rise significantly in the short term. Recently, more and more institutions and well-known companies have been buying Bitcoin as a technical reserve, and the enthusiasm for buying in the market suggests that prices will rise. After all, with so many companies involved, it must be a positive sign. However, the analyst believes the opposite is true. Any publicly participating company, like us, is merely engaging in retail buying and selling behavior and lacks dominance. In fact, the more dispersed the chips become, the less willing the main force is to push the market up due to fewer holdings. After the main force invests a lot of capital to push the market up, if a large number of people are waiting to sell at the top, there will be a continuous sell-off, causing prices to drop, and the main force may not be able to offload their holdings, leading to significant losses. A simple analogy is that the main force has prepared a bucket of water to take to the mountain for a drink, but at the top, there are already many thirsty people waiting with bowls. The main force will not continue to carry water up the mountain, leaving them thirsty at the top while they themselves come down.
For the upcoming short-term trend, the analyst hopes the market will quickly approach new highs or slightly break new highs. This way, shorting becomes more prudent, as it is easier to defend with more space below. Currently, the oscillation trend is hovering 4000-5000 dollars away from the new high, making it difficult to judge whether the rebound has ended.
There are two methods for operation. One is the peak assumption method, which involves directly shorting at the current upper boundary of 108300 with a stop-loss point. The advantage of this method is a small stop-loss and high profit; if the peak is correctly guessed, the returns are maximized. The downside is that further upward testing may easily trigger the stop-loss, making it suitable for short-term traders.
The second method is a phased entry approach, participating with a portion at the current price of 107500 and performing a supplementary purchase every time the price rises by 2500 dollars. The stop-loss should consider an additional 4000 dollars for a slight new high. The advantage of this method is that it continuously averages down the price to reduce risk, making it easy to adjust positions with slight pullbacks without easily triggering stop-loss, leading to high profits. The downside is that if the main direction judgment is incorrect, the stop-loss range can be substantial, suitable for mid-term traders.
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